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000
FNUS71 KCTP 151327
FWSCTP

Spot Forecast for Mad Bull RX Fire...PA DCNR/ELK STATE FOREST
National Weather Service State College PA
927 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on April 16.

If conditions become unrepresentative, or if you have questions or
concerns with this forecast, contact the National Weather Service
in State College.


.DISCUSSION...

Wade, please verify the start date and time of the forecast.

I will send what I have for a start time of tomorrow (Tuesday 4/16)
at 0900.

Weather discussion follows:

There should valley fog again Tuesday morning, similar to this (Mon)
morning. If the elevation of the burn is high enough to be above the
fog, you should be dry enough (morning dew) to go with a burn
before/by 9 AM EDT. If you are in the fog, you may have to delay
slightly longer (an hour or so).


.TUESDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent).
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 70.
Min Humidity........26 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming west around 5 mph early in
                    the afternoon, then becoming light late in the
                    afternoon.
Mixing Height.......5100 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Northwest 5 to 12 mph.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................28 to 36.

TIME (EDT)          9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  27  30  32  34  37  39  42  45  48
Weather Cov.......
Weather Type......
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  48  53  59  61  64  67  68  68  69
RH................  65  57  42  38  32  29  27  27  26
20 FT Wind Dir....  N   NW  W   W   W   W   W   W   NW
20 FT Wind Spd....  2   3   4   4   5   5   5   4   4
20 FT Wind Gust...      4   6   6   6   7   7   6   6
Mix Hgt (kft).....  1.5 2.8 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0
Transp Wind Dir...  NW  NW  W   W   NW  NW  NW  NW  NW
Transp Wind Spd...  5   8   10  10  12  12  10  8   7
LVORI.............  3   2   2   1   1   1   1   2   2
ADI...............  28  28  28  36  36  36  31  31  31
Haines Index......  3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3   3

.TUESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain
                    overnight.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Min Temperature.....Around 46.
Max Humidity........74 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing Height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....North around 7 mph shifting to the east around
                    10 mph overnight.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................5 to 7.

TIME (EDT)          6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%)...........  51  53  56  61  65  69  74  78  83  84  85  86
Weather Cov.......                                  CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather Type......                                  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  66  64  61  58  55  52  51  49  48  48  47  47
RH................  32  37  42  49  55  61  63  66  68  68  74  74
20 FT Wind Dir....  NW  N   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E   E
20 FT Wind Spd....  4   4   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
20 FT Wind Gust...  6   5   5   5   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6
Mix Hgt (kft).....  3.5 2.0 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5
Transp Wind Dir...  NW  N   N   NE  NE  E   E   E   E   E   E   E
Transp Wind Spd...  7   7   7   8   9   10  10  10  10  10  10  10
LVORI.............  2   2   2   2   2   3   3   3   3   3   3   3
ADI...............  5   5   5   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
Haines Index......  3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/Weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Chance of rain early in
                    the morning, then rain likely early in the
                    morning. Rain late in the afternoon.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Max Temperature.....Around 61.
Min Humidity........76 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southeast 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing Height.......1500 ft AGL.
Transport Winds.....Southeast 10 to 15 mph.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
LVORI...............4 in the morning and early afternoon.
ADI.................14 to 19 in the morning and early afternoon.

TIME (EDT)          6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%)...........  87  88  89  89  90  90  91  91  92  91  91  90
Weather Cov.......  CHC CHC LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY LKY DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather Type......  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN  RN
Tstm Cov..........
LAL...............  1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1   1
Temp..............  47  48  48  50  51  53  54  56  57  58  58  59
RH................  76  80  83  83  86  86  86  83  83  80  80  78
20 FT Wind Dir....  E   E   E   E   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
20 FT Wind Spd....  4   4   4   4   5   5   6   6   6   6   7   7
20 FT Wind Gust...  6   6   7   8   10  10  11  11  12  13  13  14
Mix Hgt (kft).....  0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5
Transp Wind Dir...  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
Transp Wind Spd...  10  12  12  12  13  13  13  14  14  14  15  15
LVORI.............  4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   M   M   M   M
ADI...............  14  14  14  18  18  18  19  19  19  M   M   M
Haines Index......  4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4

$$
Forecaster...Dangelo
Requested by...Wade Kisler
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410895.0/CTP
.DELDT 04/15/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL wkisler@pa.gov