Extended Streamflow Guidance
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000
FGUS63 KMSR 121635
ESGDES

DES MOINES RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1135 AM CDT TUE MAR 12 2024

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:West Fork Des Moines River
AVOM5          1425.0 1426.0 1428.0    <5   13   <5   10   <5   <5
:East Fork Des Moines River
AGNI4            17.0   18.0   22.0     9   28   <5   15   <5   <5
DAKI4            20.0   24.0   28.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Boone River
WBCI4            14.0   17.0   19.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
GRMI4            14.0   16.0   17.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:North Raccoon River
EFWI4            19.0   21.0   23.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
PROI4            15.0   18.0   20.0    28   52   12   31   10   20
:South Raccoon River
REDI4            20.0   24.0   27.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Raccoon River
VNMI4            17.0   22.0   23.0    12   23   <5    6   <5   <5
DMWI4            36.0   38.0   40.0     9   15   <5    7   <5   <5
DEMI4            12.0   16.0   25.0    31   64   14   24   <5   <5
:North River
NRWI4            22.0   25.0   26.0     7   20   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Middle River
IDNI4            23.0   26.0   28.0    <5   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South River
AKWI4            29.0   30.0   32.0    <5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar Creek
BSSI4            25.0   30.0   32.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Des Moines River
WDOM5            19.0   21.0   25.0    <5   11   <5    7   <5   <5
JCKM5            12.0   12.5   14.0    <5    9   <5    6   <5   <5
ESVI4            10.0   13.0   14.5     5   24   <5    8   <5   <5
EMTI4            11.0   13.0   15.0    <5   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
HBTI4            10.0   13.0   14.0    <5   30   <5   <5   <5   <5
FODI4            10.5   16.0   17.0     7   26   <5   <5   <5   <5
STRI4            19.0   25.0   27.0     7   19   <5   <5   <5   <5
DMOI4            23.0   26.0   30.0    <5    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DESI4            24.0   26.0   30.0    24   48    6   19   <5   <5
EDYI4            63.0   68.0   70.0    <5   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
OTMI4            11.5   15.0   19.0    10   31   <5    5   <5   <5
KEQI4            22.0   25.0   27.0     8   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
SFLM7            18.0   22.0   25.0    23   40    9   10   <5   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0318 Z DH12 /DC2403121635/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:West Fork Des Moines River
AVOM5    1418.7/ 1418.9/ 1419.2/ 1419.9/ 1420.5/ 1422.9/ 1424.3
:East Fork Des Moines River
AGNI4       8.7/    9.0/    9.8/   12.4/   15.2/   16.9/   17.6
DAKI4       8.6/    8.7/    9.0/   10.8/   12.9/   15.8/   17.2
:Boone River
WBCI4       3.4/    3.9/    4.6/    6.3/    8.1/    9.4/   12.1
:Beaver Creek
GRMI4       4.1/    4.6/    6.1/    7.7/    9.9/   11.4/   12.5
:North Raccoon River
EFWI4       6.1/    7.1/    8.7/   10.7/   12.3/   15.2/   17.3
PROI4       6.0/    7.4/   10.5/   13.7/   16.1/   19.9/   21.4
:South Raccoon River
REDI4       3.1/    3.9/    5.7/    7.2/    9.0/   16.4/   19.5
:Raccoon River
VNMI4       4.0/    4.9/    8.4/   10.9/   14.4/   18.3/   21.4
DMWI4      21.6/   22.4/   26.3/   28.8/   32.7/   35.9/   37.7
DEMI4       3.4/    4.4/    8.7/   11.1/   13.6/   17.0/   18.6
:North River
NRWI4       5.4/    7.6/   11.8/   15.0/   19.2/   21.8/   22.2
:Middle River
IDNI4       8.1/   10.2/   14.0/   15.5/   17.8/   21.1/   21.9
:South River
AKWI4       6.5/    8.5/   10.9/   13.1/   18.8/   25.0/   28.5
:Cedar Creek
BSSI4       4.6/    6.1/    8.8/   11.9/   14.4/   18.4/   21.0
:Des Moines River
WDOM5      10.6/   10.8/   11.2/   11.9/   14.1/   16.5/   18.1
JCKM5       7.7/    7.9/    8.1/    8.6/    9.4/   10.3/   11.0
ESVI4       2.7/    2.8/    3.2/    4.1/    6.2/    8.6/   10.0
EMTI4       1.5/    1.5/    2.1/    3.3/    6.2/    8.4/    9.6
HBTI4       4.0/    4.4/    5.0/    6.3/    8.3/    9.4/    9.8
FODI4       4.4/    4.7/    5.4/    6.6/    8.5/   10.0/   10.7
STRI4       6.8/    7.7/    8.6/   11.4/   14.2/   16.9/   20.6
DMOI4      16.0/   16.4/   17.4/   19.3/   20.4/   21.5/   21.8
DESI4      11.7/   13.1/   17.3/   20.4/   23.2/   25.0/   26.2
EDYI4      49.1/   52.1/   57.0/   59.0/   60.5/   61.7/   62.8
OTMI4       2.5/    4.2/    6.7/    8.2/    9.8/   11.5/   12.8
KEQI4      11.7/   13.3/   16.0/   17.0/   19.3/   21.6/   23.5
SFLM7       9.0/   10.5/   13.8/   15.2/   17.7/   21.0/   23.7
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0318 Z DH12 /DC2403121635/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 03/18/2024 - 06/16/2024
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:West Fork Des Moines River
AVOM5    1418.5/ 1418.5/ 1418.4/ 1418.3/ 1418.1/ 1418.0/ 1417.9
:East Fork Des Moines River
AGNI4       6.9/    6.9/    6.8/    6.6/    5.7/    5.7/    5.7
DAKI4       7.4/    7.3/    7.3/    7.3/    7.2/    7.1/    7.1
:Boone River
WBCI4       1.7/    1.6/    1.6/    1.6/    1.5/    1.4/    1.3
:Beaver Creek
GRMI4       2.5/    2.5/    2.4/    2.2/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0
:North Raccoon River
EFWI4       5.0/    4.8/    4.8/    4.7/    4.7/    4.6/    4.5
PROI4       4.2/    3.8/    3.6/    3.5/    3.3/    3.1/    2.9
:South Raccoon River
REDI4       2.2/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    1.8/    1.6
:Raccoon River
VNMI4       2.8/    2.5/    2.3/    2.2/    2.1/    1.9/    1.8
DMWI4      20.2/   20.1/   19.8/   19.7/   19.6/   19.3/   19.1
DEMI4       2.2/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.7/    1.6/    1.4
:North River
NRWI4       5.2/    5.0/    4.9/    4.8/    4.6/    4.5/    4.5
:Middle River
IDNI4       7.3/    7.1/    7.0/    6.9/    6.8/    6.7/    6.6
:South River
AKWI4       5.2/    5.2/    5.2/    5.1/    5.1/    5.0/    5.0
:Cedar Creek
BSSI4       4.5/    4.5/    4.5/    4.4/    4.4/    4.4/    4.3
:Des Moines River
WDOM5      10.1/   10.1/   10.1/    9.9/    9.7/    9.4/    9.2
JCKM5       7.3/    7.3/    7.3/    7.2/    7.0/    6.7/    6.5
ESVI4       2.2/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.6
EMTI4       0.3/    0.3/    0.2/    0.1/    0.1/   -0.1/   -0.2
HBTI4       3.0/    3.0/    3.0/    2.8/    2.7/    2.5/    2.4
FODI4       3.3/    3.2/    3.2/    3.1/    3.0/    2.9/    2.8
STRI4       4.7/    4.5/    4.5/    4.4/    4.2/    4.1/    4.1
DMOI4      15.1/   14.9/   14.7/   14.6/   14.6/   14.6/   14.6
DESI4       9.9/    9.7/    9.2/    8.9/    8.8/    8.7/    8.6
EDYI4      48.1/   47.9/   47.6/   47.3/   47.1/   47.0/   46.8
OTMI4       1.9/    1.7/    1.5/    1.2/    1.1/    0.9/    0.8
KEQI4      10.7/   10.5/   10.2/    9.9/    9.7/    9.6/    9.5
SFLM7       6.9/    6.6/    6.1/    5.7/    5.4/    5.2/    5.1
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$



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