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000
FXXX12 KWNP 190031
DAYDIS

:Product: Forecast Discussion
:Issued: 2024 Apr 19 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             Forecast Discussion
#
Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 3638 (S18E03, Cri/beta)
was responsible for the strongest event of the period, an M2.2
(R1-Minor) flare at 18/0248 UTC. Newly numbered Region 3647 (S10E12,
Dac/beta-delta) resides in the middle of a cluster of sunspots in the SE
quadrant. Most of the significant sunspot growth over the past 24 hours
is between Region 3647 and Region 3645 (S09E10, Dai/beta). The remaining
regions were mostly stable or in gradual decay.

Multiple CMEs were observed off the SE following a series of eruptions
from the vicinity of Region 3638 (S18E03, Cri/beta) after 17/1730 UTC.
Analysis suggests these CMEs are near misses directed Eastward of the
Sun-Earth line. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available
satellite imagery. If the periphery of the CMEs do expand onto the
Sun-Earth line, theyd likely by observed at Earth over 21-22 Apr.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to reach moderate levels over 19-21 Apr with
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) likely, and a slight chance for
X-class (R3/Strong) flares.

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux was at background levels.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels, as well as a slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV
proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) levels over 19-21 Apr.

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
A weakly enhanced solar wind environment prevailed throughout the
period. Total magnetic field strength ranged 4-9 nT. The Bz component
was primarily oriented northward. Solar wind speeds were in steady
decline through the period, from ~410 km/s to near ~330 km/s by the of
the UT day.

.Forecast...
Solar wind conditions are like to be near background levels over 19 Apr.
On 20 Apr and into 21 Apr, enhanced conditions are likely due to the
anticipated onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences, with potential
additional influence from the periphery of multiple, weak CMEs.

Geospace

.24 hr Summary...
The geomagnetic field was quiet.

.Forecast...
The geomagnetic field is likely to persist at quiet to unsettled levels
over 19 Apr. Unsettled conditions are likely on 20 Apr and active
conditions on 21 Apr mostly due to effects from a negative polarity CH
HSS.