Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
276 FXXX12 KWNP 011231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 01 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Five sunspot groups were present on the visible solar disk and background X-ray flux levels were mostly in the low C-class levels. Region 3654 (S07W70, Fkc/beta-delta) weakened a bit in its magnetic complexity, as the gamma configuration appeared to diminish. Still the mixed polarity delta spot in the intermediate section retained its magnetic shear and the instability was evident as it produced an M9.5/2b flare at 30/2346 UTC and a long duration C5.8 at 01/0758 UTC. An associated CME was observed with the long duration C5.8 flare. Analysis is ongoing of this event, but due to its far west location, an Earth-directed component is unlikely. New Region 3663 (N25E27, Bxo/beta) emerged today and underwent slow growth - but was stable. The remaining regions were inactive and had little change. .Forecast... Solar activity is likely to be moderate, with a slight chance of low-level X-class flares (R3; Strong) on 1 May due primarily to the magnetic complexity of Region 3654 and its history of flare production. However, despite increasing foreshortening effects, the region appears to be undergoing slow weakening as it rotates closer to the limb and M-class flare probabilities decrease to a chance on 2 May. The region rotates beyond the limb on 3 May decreasing the chance for M-class activity further. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is likely to continue at normal to moderate levels 1-3 May; while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to maintain at background. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... The solar wind environment was indicative of a slow regime, until near 30/1130 UTC when a disturbance in the field occurred. Total IMF increased from ambient levels and peaked at 14 nT, while the Bz component underwent a prolonged southward deflection with a maximum negative deviation of -8 nT. Solar wind speed underwent a slight escalation, but peaked ~425 km/s. The phi angle varied between sectors, but seemed to settle into primarily a negative sector halfway through the period. While its uncertain what the cause of the disturbance was, a possible candidate was an isolated negative polarity CH HSS that may be flowing just north of Earth or causing weak, tenuous influences or it could also be a transient passage. .Forecast... A disturbed and variably enhanced solar wind field is anticipated over the next three days due to possible, weak transient passages followed by additional CH HSS effects from an isolated positive polarity CH HSS that should become geoeffective on 3 May. Furthermore, a CME that departed the Sun on 29 April with mainly a westward component was further analyzed and near proximity influences or weak flanking effects are possible later on 3 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field reached active levels for a few periods in response to the disturbed solar wind field. .Forecast... G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storming is expected during the early hours of 01 May due to transient-like effects. Active levels, with a chance of G1 (Minor) storms are anticipated 2-3 May in varying response to CH HSS effects and possible transient passages.