Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 290913
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
413 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

AT 400 AM...THE NORTHLAND WAS IN THE WAKE OF A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR JAMES BAY AND ITS TROUGH EXTENDING TO THE SSW
THROUGH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR AND EASTERN WISCONSIN. THERE WAS A
SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS. THE NORTHLAND HAD
COOL NW FLOW AND CLOUDY SKIES. THERE WAS LIGHT PCPN OVER PARTS OF
THE NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND GOGEBIC RANGE.
THE PCPN TYPES WERE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. TEMPERATURES WERE IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 30S.

TODAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT
EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT THE NORTHLAND IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN CLOUDY. THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL ENDING TO LINGERING PCPN
THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE LINGERING PCPN WILL
BE NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE WHERE THERE COULD BE VERY LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

TONIGHT...A SHORTWAVE AND SUBTLE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. AN
INVERTED TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF LIGHT PCPN...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND
SNOW...TO THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY
OF SATURATION IN THE COLD LEVELS ALOFT WHICH WOULD FAVOR
SNOW...BUT LOWEST LEVELS IN THE 2 TO 3 DEGREES CELSIUS RANGE COULD
MEAN COLD RAIN. IF IT DOES SNOW...MELTING WILL CUT DOWN ON ANY
ACCUMULATION. SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE WELL UNDER A HALF
INCH FOR MOST AREAS. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER OVERNIGHT
LOWS...SO INCREASED THE LOWS A BIT FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING LOW AND INVERTED TROUGH. THE CLOUD COVER AND STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL HEAVILY LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING...SO LOWERED THE
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST A BIT. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE TO AT LEAST 10 TO 20 MPH OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND. THE
NAM12 AND GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE GUSTS COULD BE OVER 30 MPH.
INCREASED THE WIND AND WIND GUST FORECAST QUITE A BIT FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND WE MIGHT NEED TO INCREASE EVEN MORE IF THE
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE STRONG FLOW AND GOOD MIXING DUE TO
THE STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION. THERE WILL BE ONGOING PCPN OVER THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE MORNING...AND THEN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
OVER THE AFTERNOON. THE PCPN TYPE OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THE
MORNING SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE DROP IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTH
DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL BEGIN TO BRING BACK A
MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 413 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT EPISODE OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWS...WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES OF -8C TO -10C MOVE ACROSS 8C TO
10C ABOVE LAKE SUPERIOR WATERS OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE MOISTURE...AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM THAT BRINGS
RAIN TO OUR AREA ON THURSDAY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. HOWEVER...WE
SHOULD HAVE SOME DECENT LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS SETTING IN DURING
THE EVENING AS THE COLD AIR SWOOPS IN ALOFT...AND PERSISTING MOST
OF THE NIGHT. HAVE SOME LIKELY POPS GOING OVER THE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW REGIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT...ALONG WITH SOME 1
TO 2 INCH WET SLUSHY SNOWFALL AMOUNTS GOING FOR OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE...CLOUDS WILL BE CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST. WINDS WILL
STILL BE RATHER STRONG IN THE EVENING...ALSO DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. WINDS TO REMAIN FAIRLY STRONG
OVER THE LAKE THOUGH...AIDING IN THE LAKE EFFECT AS WELL.

QUIETER WEATHER TO SETTLE IN FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS A
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
ON FRIDAY TO REMAIN CHILLY WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 30S TO PERHAPS
AROUND 40. SATURDAY WARMING ALOFT WILL ALLOW HIGHS TO RISE INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. SUNDAY TO GET EVEN WARMER WITH HIGHS IN
THE 40S. MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT TO FALL INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND
LOW 20S. FRIDAY EVENING WILL BE RATHER CHILLY SO HOPEFULLY THE
NEIGHBORHOOD KIDS CAN FIT COATS INTO THEIR COSTUMES FOR TRICK OR
TREATING...WITH TEMPS AT 00Z AROUND FREEZING. BRRR. OVERNIGHT LOWS
TO ALSO GO THROUGH A WARMING TREND...WITH SUNDAY NIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW 30S.

THE NEXT FALL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA STARTING SUNDAY
NIGHT...AND BRINGING SOME FAIRLY GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM SHOULD START OUT AS
RAIN...BUT MAY FINISH OFF WITH A PERIOD OF WET SLOPPY SNOW MONDAY
NIGHT AS COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA ALOFT. WE MIGHT GET SOME
SLOPPY ACCUMULATIONS ON THE GRASS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET CHILLY
AGAIN...AND EXPECT TO BE LOWERING HIGHS FOR TUESDAY AS WE GET
CLOSER TO THIS EVENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

PRECIPITATION IN THE DECAYING DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NE MN HAS
RAPIDLY WEAKENED IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THIS EVENING..BUT STILL
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS PERSIST AND WILL CONTINUE TO
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT ALONG WITH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS.  CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO CLEAR..IF AT ALL ON WEDNESDAY WITH MVFR CEILINGS PERSISTING
FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.  ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MAY SPREAD SHOWERS INTO THE
KBRD AREA AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  34  42  27 /   0  30  40  10
INL  39  31  38  21 /   0  30  40  10
BRD  42  34  43  24 /   0  50  50  10
HYR  43  35  45  28 /   0  30  40  20
ASX  44  35  45  29 /   0  10  40  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE






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