Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 202345
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

ONE LAST CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY WAS MOVING OVER THE FA AS OF
19Z. THIS WAS RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS AREA OF VORTICITY. SFC
RIDGING WAS ALREADY FOUND OVER THE FA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH E INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND RE-ENFORCE THE SFC
RIDGING. THE CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
EDGES OF THE FA THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING
THE FA IN A WAA RETURN FLOW REGIME. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERODE AWAY THE LEFT OVER CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...SFC WIND WILL BE FROM THE COOLER LAKE AND KEEP MAX TEMPS
FROM WARMING OUT OF THE 40S. MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR OVER
THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEEK.  IT WILL PULL A
NICE FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ON FRIDAY...AND WE SHOULD GET AN
AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE ARE
MARGINAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THUNDER...SO HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO IT.  PW VALUES
ARE UP IN THE 1.0 TO 1.25 RANGE...ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY
SO.  WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S DESPITE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO HOLD THINGS DOWN.  CLOUDS TO ALSO
HOLD MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP IN THE 40S.  THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE ENOUGH FOR HIGHS TO GET
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING THIS MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED.  MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 40S
WITH CLOUDS STILL IN THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND AFFECT CANADA WITH
A PRECIPITATION EVENT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MIGHT GET A SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THE
SYSTEM SENDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALSO
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL COOL SATURDAY OFF
SOME WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TEMPORARILY ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP OVER
THE ROCKIES THOUGH...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  SUNDAY
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY TO BE PUSHED BACK DOWN TO
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA.  HAVE LEFT PRECIP AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING A WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL LIKELY BE KINL AND KBRD. KINL IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY
CLEAR. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER AND
MAY REACH INTO THE IFR RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY ON
TUESDAY...AS DRIER AIR ACTS TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  48  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
INL  31  53  37  59 /   0   0   0  20
BRD  33  55  38  57 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  30  52  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  33  49  33  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP





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