Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 111632 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1132 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

UPDATED THE PCPN CHANCES THROUGH THIS EVENING BASED ON THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TO REFLECT THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL NOW BE ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT IN NW MINNESOTA AND NW
ONTARIO. I KEPT CHANCES OVER NE MINNESOTA BELOW 50 PERCENT. THE
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD BE LIMITED DUE TO THE LACK
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND CAPPING ISSUES...AS ALSO DISCUSSED IN
THE LATEST STORM PREDICTION CENTER DISCUSSION. MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND SILL HAD OVC LOW LEVEL CLOUD LATE THIS MORNING...WHICH
WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT HEATING UNTIL IT CAN BEGIN TO DISSIPATE. AT
THIS RATE...THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA MIGHT NOT BEGIN TO SEE SOME
BREAKING IN THE CLOUD COVER FOR ANOTHER COUPLE HOURS. IF ANY
STORMS DO DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEY COULD STILL BE
STRONG TO SEVERE GIVEN THE SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER WIND
SHEAR...PROVIDED THERE IS ENOUGH CAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 431 AM  CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

CURRENT CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING OCCURRING IN AREA OF STRONG
WAA ON NOSE OF 8H THETA E RIDGE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
LIKELY IN AN AREA SOUTH OF HWY 210 IN MN THIS MORNING. THIS THETA
E RIDGE REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY AND BECOMES MUCH STRONGER THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT NEARS. IN THE SHORTEST TERM...THIS
MORNING...MORNING MCS ACROSS SRN CWA WILL CONTINUE AND SPREAD INTO
WI THROUGH DAYBREAK. THEN THE BIG QUESTION- HOW MUCH
DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR AFTER THE MORNING CONVECTION UNTIL
STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EARLY THIS
MORNING THE COLD FRONT WAS OVER EASTERN ND AND IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THRU NEASTERN MINNESOTA. THE FRONT SHOULD BE NEARING OUR
WESTERN BORDER AROUND NOON. PLENTY OF CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE
2000 - 3000 RANGE AND 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 45 KTS CAPES WILL GIVE SOME
VERY STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS. STRENGTHENING UPPER LEVEL JET OF OF
80 TO 90 KTS MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN MM WILL HELP GENERATE AND
STRENGTHEN STORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

MED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN STRONG CONTINUITY WITH OVERALL
SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN. A FRONTAL BDRY WILL CLEAR THE CWA SATURDAY
HOWEVER SOME LINGERING POPS MAY OCCUR OVER SERN CWA EARLY IN THE DAY
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SECOND COLD FRONT
PUSHES QUICKLY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY. THIS FRONT
REPRESENTS THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MUCH COOLER AIR THAT WILL INVADE
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. PREFRONTAL PRECIP IS POSSIBLE
BUT SHOULD BE VERY SHORT LIVED BASED ON SPEED OF SFC BDRY. BEHIND
THE FRONT... AS MID LVL TROF DEEPENS OVERHEAD... STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES SHOULD PROMOTE DIURNAL INSTABILITY SHOWERS SUN AFTN...MAINLY
ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF MN ZONES. THE MAJORITY OF THE MID LVL TROF IS
FCST TO DROP SOUTH OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
EXTENSIVE BAND OF CLOUD COVER SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS FEATURE BASED ON
MAGNITUDE OF THE DEEP CYCLONIC MOIST CIRCULATION. MON MAX TEMPS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECTED BY THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER SO SOME
ADJUSTMENT UP OR DOWN MAY BE NEEDED. THE DEEP CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY WITH GRADUAL DRYING FROM
WEST TO EAST BY TUES AFTERNOON. UPPER TROF WILL ADVECT EAST BY
MIDWEEK FOLLOWED BY SEVERAL DAYS OF MODERATING TEMPS AND DRY WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT FRI JUL 11 2014

LARGE AREA OF EARLY MORNING RW/TRW WILL SLIDE ACROSS KHYR TERMINAL
NEXT FEW HRS. BEYOND THAT...LOW CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF CONVECTION
UNTIL FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. ATMOSPHERE
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY UNSTABLE UNTIL FRONT MOVES THROUGH A
GIVEN LOCATION SO STORMS COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME. WILL USE
FRONTAL APPROACH AS FEATURE TO ATTEMPT TO TIME CONVECTION HOWEVER
AMENDMENTS MAY BE REQUIRED IF CONVECTION ORGANIZES EARLIER.
SPEAKING OF ORGANIZATION...FCST SHEAR/STABILITY PARAMETERS
INDICATE STRG/SVR STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  58  78  57 /  40  30  10  10
INL  79  53  77  52 /  40  20  10  30
BRD  81  60  80  59 /  40  40  10  10
HYR  76  60  81  58 /  50  20  20  10
ASX  75  58  77  57 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON






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