Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 280252 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
952 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A COUPLE OF ROGUE ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS STILL PERSIST AS OF 945
PM ACROSS NW WISCONSIN..BUT OTHERWISE PRECIP HAS DISSIPATED FOR
THE TIME BEING. THE UPDATE FORECAST REFLECTS THIS TREND..AS WELL
AS A SLIGHTLY DELAYED ONSET OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST
CWA WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT. WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS UNDER
THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS ALONG WITH RECENT RAINS OF THE PAST FEW
DAYS..WE ALSO ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. UPDATES ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.

&&

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY DIMINISHING/MOVING OUT OF THE
DULUTH CWA AS WEAK WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING. STILL..THERE IS ENOUGH RESIDUAL INSTABILITY AND
NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AROUND THAT A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
OR MAYBE EVEN A BRIEF T-STORM REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WOULD BE TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
OF THE TWIN PORTS. OTHERWISE..WEAK RIDGING WILL BE BUILDING INTO
THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CLEARING SKIES AS
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS EVAPORATE..ALONG WITH RATHER COOL TEMPS.

WE HAVE MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONAL AND RADAR TRENDS..THE MOST SIGNIFICANT BEING TO FINE
TUNE THE POPS ACROSS NW WISCONSIN.

AVIATION SECTION IS ALSO UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDER ACROSS THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ASSOCIATED WITH A SFC TROUGH
AND MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE CONVECTION WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNSET..MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SHORT-LIVED...WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ALTHOUGH THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH SEVERE LEVELS...FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
STRONG...WITH GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

SKIES WILL CLEAR AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY RETURN
OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. THE H85
CLOSED LOW WITH SFC REFLECTION TRANSLATES INTO FAR NW MINNESOTA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MN. LATEST GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT INTO THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN THE
DAY THURSDAY...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSETTLED START TO THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD FOLLOWED BY A COOL WEEKEND.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER THE RED RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION THAT WILL LAST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE COLD FRONT WILL ENTER
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING OVER MINNESOTA. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL VARY
FROM THE UPPER 50S OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE LOWER 70S
OVER PRICE COUNTY IN WISCONSIN. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN BEFORE ENDING ON FRIDAY EVENING
AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN MANITOBA WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD ON FRIDAY
NIGHT BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES. FROST MAY BE
POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD
WHERE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS EXIST FOR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S WITH 40 DEGREES ELSEWHERE. DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. A BETTER CHANCE OF PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ON EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WITH LOWS
IN THE LOWER 30S. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION ON SUNDAY BRINGING MILDER TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
ENTER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY THAT WILL RETURN THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN ON MONDAY NIGHT. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD ON TUESDAY AND BE OVER SOUTHWESTERN ONTARIO BY
WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHLAND
TO END THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S
ON MONDAY WARMING TO THE LOWER TO MID 70S ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
EASTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES
FOR THE WESTERN SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

TSTORMS ARE WANING THIS EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND..WITH ONLY A
FEW SHOWERS LINGERING IN THE KHYR VICINITY THRU 02-03Z.
OTHERWISE..WEAK SURFACE RIDGING SHOULD BRING CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. WE WILL NEED TO
WATCH KHIB/KHYR FOR FOG FORMATION WITH STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING
OVERNIGHT.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING TOWARD THE AREA BY 18Z
THURS..SPREADING MAINLY VFR OVERCAST ACROSS MOST TERMINALS BY
EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AFFECTING
KHIB/KBRD/KINL BY AROUND 18Z. PRESSURE FALLS TO THE WEST AND AN
INCREASING GRADIENT SHOULD LEAD TO LOCAL ENE WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR AT KDLH HOLDING INTO THE AFTERNOON..ALONG WITH AT LEAST
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SCT/BKN MVFR CLOUDS. INCREASING LOW LEVEL JET
BY LATE AFTERNOON COMBINED WITH ESE SURFACE WIND COMPONENT ALSO
WARRANTS THE INCLUSION OF MARGINAL LLWS CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z THURS
AFTERNOON AT KDLH/KINL/KHIB.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  63  49  65 /  20  30  70  60
INL  46  72  49  59 /  30  70  70  10
BRD  55  78  59  66 /  10  40  70  50
HYR  48  81  60  70 /  30  20  70  80
ASX  44  69  53  68 /  20  30  60  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
AVIATION...MILLER





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