Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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752
FXUS63 KDLH 040853
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
353 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY AND THURSDAY ON NEAR-CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO MINNESOTA TODAY...SETTLING OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT. AFTERNOON HUMIDITY WILL AGAIN DROP
INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE WITH VALUES FROM AROUND 20% ACROSS MN...TO
AROUND 30% OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS/GUSTS
WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LESS THAN OBSERVED TUESDAY...NORTHERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE TEENS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST
GUSTS WILL BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

A TRANSITION TO RAPID WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT WILL PUSH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY
MIGRATES EAST INTO THE DAKOTAS. A RIDGE RIDER VORT MAX WILL
TRANSLATE THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW...DROPPING ACROSS MANITOBA
OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY. DUE TO THE SPEED
OF THE VORT MAX AND DRY AIR MASS...MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN
EXPECT ONLY A PERIOD OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...WITH ANY SHOWERS
REMAINING ISOLATED AND BRIEF WITH MINIMAL QPF.

THE SHORT WAVE WILL EXIT THE REGION TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...GIVING WAY TO GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. THE WARM
FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP INTO THE 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

THE PRIMARY STORY CONCERNS FRIDAY...WHICH WILL LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST
DAY YET THIS SEASON. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...GIVING THE BOOST TO OVERNIGHT LOWS
NEEDED TO MAKE A SPRINGBOARD TO REACHING WELL ABOVE NORMAL ON
FRIDAY. THE NAM12 AND GFS20 SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUNNY SKIES...DRY
HUMIDITY...AND AFTERNOON MIXING OF WESTERLY WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH AT LEAST THE LOW 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND...ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WHEN AN ASSOCIATED CUTS ACROSS ONTARIO. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD HAVE
LITTLE EFFECT ON THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST BECAUSE IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE COLDER AIR TO FILTER INTO THE REGION...A DELAY AFTER
THE ACTUAL WIND SHIFT. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NW FORECAST AREA IN THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF THE
COLD FRONT. THE COMBINATION OF THE DRY HUMIDITY AND GUSTY WINDS
COULD RESULT IN FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE COLD FRONT AND A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH COULD DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE FRIDAY
MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND. HIGH
PRESSURE AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S ON
SATURDAY. THE NORTHLAND MAY GET A GLANCING BLOW FROM ANOTHER COLD
FRONT LATE SATURDAY OR EARLY SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY
COULD BE A BIT WARMER THAN SATURDAY.

THERE IS POOR CONFIDENCE CONCERNING MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WHILE BOTH
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A LOW WILL BE OVER THE
PLAINS...POTENTIALLY BRINGING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE CENTRAL
US...THE GFS HAS THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED PCPN MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN
THE ECMWF. ALSO...THE ECMWF HAS COOLER EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND...WHILE THE GFS HAS WARMER SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT WED MAY 4 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE NORTHLAND
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. THE GUSTY WINDS OF TODAY WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE OVERNIGHT...BUT SOME GUSTS WILL ONCE AGAIN REDEVELOP BY
MID MORNING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  33  73  52 /   0   0  20  10
INL  62  37  80  52 /   0  10  10  10
BRD  62  38  80  53 /   0   0  10   0
HYR  57  33  72  51 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  52  32  71  49 /  10   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...DAP/GROCHOCINSKI



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