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000
FXUS63 KDLH 242105
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
405 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
WESTERN MN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS AN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
VORT MAX ROUNDING OUT THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE.  MOST OF THE LIFT
ASSOCIATE WITH THE SYSTEMS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE THERE ARE THE HIGHER POPS. PUT SOME POPS IN
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR IN MN AND NORTHWEST
WI...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO
MOISTEN UP FOR RAIN.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS...LOCAL AND THE SREF...ARE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE BAND OF SHOWERS OUT TO THE WEST WITH MORE SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON THE MAJOR AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY BE ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...LEAVING MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
HELP TO SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE HEADING INTO A POTENTIALLY
WARM...WET...AND ACTIVE PERIOD NEXT WEEK. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST. THE MODELS INDICATE ONE
OR MORE WARM FRONTS MAY MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...WHICH COULD BE A STORMY PERIOD FOR THE
NORTHLAND.

.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH AT LEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS
AND LOWERING FROM THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF WESTERN MINNESOTA INTO EASTERN
MINNESOTA THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THE KBRD AREA HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF SEEING ANY SHOWERS. THERE COULD BE BRIEF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS DUE TO REDUCED VSBY FROM THE RAIN. THERE IS A SMALL
POSSIBILITY OF THUNDER AT KBRD...BUT IT IS TOO LOW AT THIS POINT
TO INCLUDE THE FORECAST. THE KINL/KDLH/KHIB AREAS COULD ALSO SEE
SOME RAIN SHOWERS...BUT NOT QUITE CONFIDENT YET. THE KBRD AND KINL
AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT OR TOMORROW MORNING.
I AM NOT CONFIDENT THAT THE MVFR CIGS WILL MAKE IT AS FAR EAST AS
KHIB AND KDLH...BUT IT MAY. EXPECT THE 5 TO 15 KNOT S TO SE WINDS
TODAY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND STRENGTHEN LATER TOMORROW MORNING.
THE WINDS AT KDLH MAY BE MORE SE TO E DUE TO THE WINDS COMING OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR.




&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  57  41  61 /  10  20   0  10
INL  45  62  43  67 /  10  10  10   0
BRD  49  58  46  63 /  60  40  10  30
HYR  44  61  41  67 /  10  30   0  10
ASX  41  60  39  63 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI