Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 150329
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1029 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1029 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE FORECAST...WITH
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

HAVE UPDATED EVENING TEMPERATURE TRENDS AND THE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.

AVIATION SECTION BELOW ALSO UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AND COLD
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM.

A COLD UPPER TROUGH IS ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTERACTING WITH A WEAKENING UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
TO PRODUCE MAINLY A LAYER OF STRATO-CUMULUS...AND A FEW LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS. THE MAIN FACTOR LIMITING THE EXTENT AND INTENSITY OF THE
SNOW SHOWERS IS THE AMT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS. SFC DWPT
DEPRESSIONS ARE 15 TO 30 DEG F. SO...ANY SNOWFLAKES THAT DO FALL OUT
OF THE CLOUD DECK WILL QUICKLY SUBLIMATE AND NOT REACH THE GROUND.
THE SHOWERS/FLURRIES WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN TONIGHT ALONG
WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF UNSEASONABLY COLD TEMPERATURES. THE GUSTY N/NW
WINDS TODAY WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES IN OVER THE
REGION. THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THIS HIGH AND THE DRY AIR MASS WILL
ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO SCATTER OUT AND SKIES TO CLEAR OFF TONIGHT.
THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...SOME 10-20
DEG BELOW AVERAGE.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RATHER CHILLY ON TUESDAY...BUT NOT AS WINDY.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY RISE INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S TUE
AFTERNOON. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. WILL SEE A STRONG PUSH OF CLOUDS FROM
THE W/SW IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE
UPPER MIDWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

LOOKS LIKE MORE SNOW FOR THE NORTHLAND. QUASI STATIONARY LOW OVER
HUDSON BAY WILL BE SENDING ANOTHER STRONG S/WV SOUTH INTO THE
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW TO THE
NORTHLAND. MODELS ARE COMING TOGETHER IN FORMING THE SFC LOW OVER
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND SWING SOUTHEAST OVER THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN OVER IOWA OR SRN MN ON WEDNESDAY AND CENTRAL
WISCONSIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS QUICK MOVING LOW WILL PROVIDE VERY
GOOD SNOWFALL RATES FOR A FAIRLY SHORT PERIOD OF TIME- FROM
WEDNESDAYS MORNING TO WEDNESDAY EVENING...LATER TIMES FOR
NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN.

A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP ACROSS EAST CENTRAL MN AND CENTRAL
WI...JUST SOUTH OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA.  THIS WILL PUT MUCH OF
THE NORTHLAND IN THE BEST AREA FOR STRONG UVV AND THE -12 TO -18
LAYER IS FORECAST IN THE PRIME OMEGA AREA...MEANING GOOD DENDRITIC
SNOW. RATES OF AN INCH AN HOUR FOR QUITE A FEW HOURS MEAN THAT THE
SNOW WILL PILE UP. CURRENT THINKING THAT THE BEST AND HEAVIEST
SNOWFALL WILL BE IN THE BEST FGEN AREA FROM ABOUT BRAINERD THROUGH
DULUTH AND MOST OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN.  AGAIN THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A FAIRLY SHARP SNOWFALL GRADIENT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. STRONG WINDS
WILL BE AN ISSUE WITH THIS STORM AS THE LOW SLIDES TO THE SOUTH.

THE STORM PULLS OUT THURSDAY AS QUICKLY AS IT COMES IN BUT MAY
LINGER A BIT OVER THE FAR EAST.

NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME OVER THE WEEKEND. PTYPES STILL
IN QUESTION...BUT LOOKS LIKE A MIXED BAG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT MON APR 14 2014

CONDITIONS VFR ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH A SPECKLING OF
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WINDS ARE
VARYING BETWEEN 310 AND 010 AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 18KTS FOR
KDLH...KHIB AND KBRD THIS EVENING AS SHOWERS PASS EACH LOCATION.
FOR NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE MORE PREVAILING 320...AND WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR. SHOWERS AND WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GENERALLY BETWEEN
01Z AND 03Z THIS EVENING. WINDS TO REMAIN BELOW 10KTS OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY EVEN AS WIND DIRECTION SLOWLY SWITCHES AROUND TO SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  14  32  19  27 /  20   0  30  70
INL   3  27  15  33 /  20  10  20  30
BRD  17  36  25  33 /   0   0  40  70
HYR  14  33  20  35 /  20   0  40  70
ASX  16  31  18  31 /  20  10  30  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR MNZ020-033>038.

WI...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...LE







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