Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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126
FXUS63 KDLH 171814 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
114 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 113 PM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

HAVE ALLOWED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE DUE TO THE RAPID
IMPROVEMENT OF VISIBILITIES IN THE FOG AROUND THE TWIN PORTS THIS
AFTERNOON. STILL COULD BE POCKETS OF LIGHT 1 TO 4 SM FOG THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.

REST OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK WITH CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT OVER CENTRAL MN IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND MOVEMENT
N/NEWD INTO THE NORTHLAND IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
STILL EXPECTING A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WAS MOVING THROUGH NEBRASKA AT 07Z. PIECES
OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WERE LIFTING NWD FROM THE BASE OF THE LOW
TOWARD THE FORECAST AREA. MEANWHILE...THE SFC LOW CENTER WAS IN
CENTRAL SD WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN MN AND SOUTHERN
WI. A WEAK SFC TROF WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR INTO NW
WI. SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WERE PERCOLATING OVER THE
FORECAST AREA. EXPECT THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO REACH THE SD BORDER
WITH NEBRASKA BY 12Z WHILE THE SFC LOW HEADS TOWARD SW MN. SOME
SHORT WAVE ENERGY REACHES SW MN WITH THE SFC LOW AND MORE SHOWERS
AND STORMS. THE UPPER AND SFC LOWS BECOME OCCLUDED BY 18Z ALONG THE
MN/DAKOTAS BORDER. A LLJ WILL BE PUSHING MOISTURE LADEN AIR INTO THE
AREA. WITH MORE IMPULSES OF ENERGY LIFTING INTO THE REGION...STORMS
WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF
THE AREA. A DRY SLOT WILL BE FOUND TO THE EAST OF THIS ACTIVITY INTO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. IF THE SUN IS ABLE TO BREAK
THROUGH WITH THIS DRY SLOT...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY FROM SOUTHERN PINE COUNTY EWD TO PRICE COUNTY
WI. AS THIS OCCLUDED SYSTEM REACHES NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY...STORMS
WILL BE WIDESPREAD WITH SEVERE POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE ANTICIPATED. FLASH
FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY HIGH IN NW WI AND NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLOODING. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS WILL OCCUR WITH
DITCHES/CULVERTS POSSIBLY FILLING UP.

THE OCCLUDED SYSTEM SLOWLY CROSSES NORTHERN MN TONIGHT. THE LLJ IS
MOVING TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AND THE BEST FORCING WILL NOW BE
LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SFC LOW. HAVE THE HIGHEST
POPS IN THE VCNTY OF THE SFC LOW CENTER...TRENDING DOWNWARD TO THE
SE OVERNIGHT. STILL ANTICIPATING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AS
SUGGESTED BY THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES. AFTER 06Z...THE THUNDER WILL
END WITH SHOWERS DOTTING THE LANDSCAPE. WILL BE DRY IN NORTH CENTRAL
WI WHERE DRIER AIR HAS BEEN PULLED IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION.

ON MONDAY...THE SFC LOW BEGINS TO PULL AWAY FROM THE UPPER LOW AS
MUCH COLDER AIR SURGES INTO THE AREA. STRONG CAA WITH H85 TEMPS
DROPPING THROUGH THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. SOME SNOW
SHOWERS/SLEET ARE EXPECTED TO MIX INTO THE NORTHERN THIRD ALONG THE
CANADIAN BORDER. NO ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED. LIGHT RAIN
ELSEWHERE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE VERY COLD WITH 40S EXPECTED...TO NEAR
50 OVER NORTH CENTRAL WI.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE DRY...WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
EARLY AND LATE IN THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH COLD AIR MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY EVENING WHICH SHOULD START OUT AS
RAIN...THEN MIX WITH AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AS IT DIMINISHES FROM
WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. 925MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO
-2C TO -5C BY 12Z TUESDAY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT MAINLY SNOW
OVERNIGHT. WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION...BUT SOME LOCALIZED
ACCUMULATION UP TO A HALF INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH ON TUESDAY WITH CHANCES LINGERING OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AND OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION LATER TUESDAY AND
CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRY WEATHER. THERE IS A WEAK COLD
FRONT AND SURFACE LOW THAT WILL IMPACT MAINLY EASTERN AREAS
THURSDAY/THURSDAY EVENING. THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS THAT
ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES OVER THE ARROWHEAD INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WE KEPT A DRY FORECAST BUT LATER
UPDATES MAY NEED TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS.

A DEEPER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL START TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND
OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING A CHANCE FOR RAIN.

HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE COOL AND RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FORTIES
TO MIDDLE FIFTIES. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN WARM INTO THE SIXTIES FOR
THE REST OF THE PERIOD. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FROST OR A FREEZE
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT SUN MAY 17 2015

IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WITH AREAS OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH. THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WERE MOST NUMEROUS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. TIMING THE SHOWERS/STORMS
IS A CHALLENGE AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE THROUGH THE DAY.
OVERALL...WE EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE HIGHEST OVER FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND LOWEST OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. NORTHERN WISCONSIN
WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS ALL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT IT IS HIGHEST FROM PINE COUNTY
IN MINNESOTA ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN. ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
TIMING OF THE PRECIP WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MVFR/IFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING WILL RISE A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN SHOULD COME BACK DOWN TONIGHT. AREAS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL SEE FOG...DENSE AT TIMES...INTO TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  45  33  51 /  80  50  30  10
INL  40  42  30  52 / 100  80  40  10
BRD  40  43  33  54 /  70  40  20   0
HYR  44  49  33  51 /  60  30  30  10
ASX  45  50  32  49 /  80  40  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE






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