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000
FXUS63 KDLH 142233
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
533 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.UPDATE...
HAVE INTRODUCED SMALL POPS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING TO MENTION ISOLD THUNDER. AT 500 PM...RADAR
IMAGERY WAS SHOWING A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OR SHORT LIVED
THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING EAST ACROSS SAINT LOUIS COUNTY /NORTH OF
DULUTH/...INTO WESTERN LAKE COUNTY. DUE TO THE DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...CLOUD BASES REMAIN HIGH AND RAINFALL WILL WILL BE
LIMITED TO A SPRINKLE...TO A TENTH OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THERE IS
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT THUNDER AND A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN DETECTED IN THE ISLAND LAKE TO KNIFE
RIVER AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 239 PM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013/

SHORT TERM...SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 19Z
WAS FEEDING DRY AIR INTO THE FA. THIS HAS KEPT A BULK OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE. CLOUDS WERE ON
THE INCREASE THOUGH IN THE WAA REGIME AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SD AND MANITOBA. MOISTURE IS ALSO BEGINNING TO ARRIVE ON
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. LONE THUNDERSTORM OVER LOWER RED LAKE SHOULD
ERODE BEFORE REACHING THE FA AS IT ENCOUNTERS THE DRY AIR AND
MOVES AHEAD OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE SLOW ARRIVAL OF DECENT MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY.
HAVE POPS/PCPN SPREADING OVER THE FA THIS EVENING...THEN
DIMINISHING FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONT WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN FA SATURDAY
MORNING WITH A FEW STORMS STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD INTO
NORTH CENTRAL WI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH A
DRYING TREND. LINGERED SOME SMALL POPS OVER SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY WI
SATURDAY AFTERNOON FOR ANY LEFTOVER STORMS.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY.

DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA BY FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT. WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW
SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION SATURDAY NIGHT BUT
WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS LIKE A MAJORITY OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND MOISTURE WILL SAG SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH. COULD BE SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD BY SUNDAY NIGHT. BRINGING SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS WELL. WILL CARRY A BIT
HIGHER POPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. LINGERING MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WITH THE DECAYING FRONT WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM TUESDAY INTO THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THINK MUCH OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND NO MAJOR WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL EVENTS APPEAR LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK. HIGH TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 70S WITH SOME 80S AT TIMES.

AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA TO START THE
PERIOD...BUT AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES EASTWARD LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...IT WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWER CLOUDS...SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN
BEHIND THE FRONT ON SATURDAY.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  76  55  78 /  50  10  10  20
INL  57  76  51  77 /  50  10  10  40
BRD  63  79  56  80 /  40  10   0  10
HYR  60  78  55  81 /  70  10  10  10
ASX  54  76  53  77 /  70  20  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING