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000
FXUS63 KDLH 140830
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
330 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FOCUS TODAY ON POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. THE FIRE WEATHER
WATCH CURRENTLY IN EFFECT WILL BE UPGRADED TO A WARNING...AS WELL
AS EXPANDED NORTH TO INCLUDE NORTHERN AITKIN AND ITASCA COUNTIES
WITH MORNING FORECAST. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER
FORECAST FOR MORE DETAILS.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NOCTURNAL CONVECTION LOCATED NEAR THE
H85 LOW IN NORTH CENTRAL ND. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL TRACK EAST
AS THE LOW MIGRATES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND INTO NW MN
THIS MORNING. HAVE KEPT CHC POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
AND MN ARROWHEAD ZONES THROUGH THE DAY AS THE WARM FRONT STALLS
IN THE THIS REGION UNTIL THE LOW PASSES THIS EVENING.

STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
TEMPERATURES TO WARM WELL INTO THE 70S...TO MID 80S...WITH GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR LOCATIONS
NEAR THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A
NORTHEAST/EAST WIND WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MUCH COOLER. DOWNTOWN
DULUTH WILL SEE TEMPERATURES ONLY WARM INTO THE 50S TODAY.

THE FOCUS TURNS TO A COLD FRONT...WITH AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT...THAT
WILL SWEEP OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE WESTERN CWA /GENERALLY FROM INL TO
KBRD/ AROUND 21Z...MOVING INT THE ELY TO DULUTH AND HINCKLEY AREAS
AROUND 00Z...THEN PUSH OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WIS ZONES
THROUGH 03Z. AT THIS TIME THE WARM MID LEVELS AND LACK OF MOISTURE
WILL LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION WITH THE FROPA TODAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE FRONT THIS EVENING OVER THE FAR EASTERN
ZONES. LOCATIONS IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA CAN EXPECT A PERIOD OF
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING AROUND 30 MPH...ONCE THE FRONT PASSES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

.EXTENDED...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

MUCH OF THIS PERIOD WILL BE QUITE WET WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
RAIN LOOKING LIKELY.

A SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS. THE NAM/GFS DO SHOW SOME
LIGHT PRECIP DURING THIS TIME...BUT OVERALL FORCING IS LACKING SO WE
KEPT IT DRY.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE SO ON
FRIDAY. CHANCES FOR RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING
ACROSS THE REGION...ESPECIALLY ON FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
OPEN TO THE GULF...ALLOWING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
REACH 1.2 TO 1.5 INCHES WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL VALUES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. A TROUGH WILL BE WORKING EAST HELPING
DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN A SURFACE LOW THAT WILL EVENTUALLY END UP OVER
MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THE
DETAILS...BUT THE OVERALL THEME OF A WET WEEKEND INTO MONDAY IS
CONSISTENT. THE STABILITY WILL BE DROPPING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO THE
WEEKEND...SO THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE COMMON...AND WITH PLENTY
OF MOISTURE PRESENT...SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR. TOTAL RAINFALL
THROUGH FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM 1.5 TO 3 INCHES OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY DUE TO
THUNDERSTORMS. THAT MUCH RAIN WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON
RIVERS/STREAMS...BUT JUST HOW MUCH IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS
TIME. THE LATEST ECMWF IS SLOWER MOVING THE LOW OUT...CLOSER TO THE
GFS. A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WILL SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM.

SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND AS THE
STABILITY DECREASES AND FORCING INCREASES. SHEAR LOOKS TO BE LACKING
SATURDAY...BUT INCREASES SUNDAY PER THE ECMWF.

HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES FOR MUCH AREAS...BUT BE
COOLER ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR. IT WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES THIS
WEEKEND...BUT AGAIN BE COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1238 AM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013/

AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE TAF
PERIOD. THE LOW WILL BE IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH WARM AIR
SPREADING IN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. THERE COULD BE SOME HIT OR MISS
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
TUESDAY...AND THEN ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
EVENING. WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF
THE PERIOD...STARTING WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS...AND
TRANSITIONING TO A WEST WIND TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  47  72  46 /  10  10   0   0
INL  75  44  69  40 /  50  10   0   0
BRD  87  48  74  46 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  84  48  74  43 /  20  20   0   0
ASX  68  47  72  44 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
     MNZ018-025-026-033>036-038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM....MELDE