Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 130549
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1149 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Not much change in the last 24 hours as persistent stratus lingers
over much of the Northland under high pressure. There may be
pockets of freezing drizzle out there, but have yet to receive
any reports of it despite some indication on radar and a 4 SM HZ
report at KINL.

Expect more of the same through Monday. An 850 mb warm front
begins to nose into the region, but the end result will be
slightly warmer temperatures on Monday. Also, fog is a possibility
tonight again as the slightly warmer air moves over the snow.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

The main forecast challenge for the long term involve warmer
temperatures Tuesday and a potentially strong autumn storm late in
the week into Saturday.

Quasi-zonal flow aloft will continue across the Northland Monday
night into Tuesday with southerly winds near the surface.
Isentropic upglide stretching from the Central Plains into the
Northland will lead to low cloud cover and a chance of light
drizzle or freezing drizzle. With southerly winds and little snow
pack south of the CWA, think we`ll have a shot at above normal
temperatures on Tuesday. Have nudged max temps toward the bias-
corrected versions of the GEM and ECMWF once again this
afternoon, which pushes those temps above the consensus
guidance. An approaching shortwave trough will increase forcing
for ascent over the region Tuesday afternoon and evening. Rain
showers are expected and should change to snow overnight. At this
time snow amounts look light, in the 1 to 2 inch range, not even
advisory worthy. Cold air advection on the back side of the
departing low will keep a chance of light snow showers in place
across northern Minnesota. Northwest winds over western Lake
Superior will continue lake effect snow showers along the south
shore.

Attention then shifts to a potentially strong autumn storm which
would affect the Northland as early as Thursday evening. Long-
range models have come into better agreement with the handling of
the upper-level features. The 500 mb mass and momentum fields
still demonstrate different solutions, with the GFS coming in
much faster and stronger with the shortwave trough. In any event,
the GFS, ECMWF, and GEM all feature low pressure moving through
the Northland late Thursday night through Saturday. There is a
potential for more than 6 inches of snow from this system and
strong winds are likely, as well. Have added a mention of gale
force gusts to the HWO and think we may need gale headlines later
this week. While confidence in a strong autumn storm is higher
than yesterday at this time, it is still far from a slam dunk.
Anyone with travel plans late this week is encouraged to keep up
with the forecast as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1149 PM CST Sun Nov 12 2017

Stratus over KINL, KHIB and KDLH is expected to only slowly ooze
northeast for the next several hours, with only light south winds
and weak warm air advection aloft to help push it north from over
the terminals. Guidance has been overly optimistic with this
clearing trend and have gone with a more pessimistic trend through
approximately 14z, with a more rapid clearing trend after that.
Fog should develop for KBRD and KHYR again tonight, and possibly
also KDLH should the cloud cover ease north of it. Have some
prevailing MVFR with tempos for IFR where I have confidence it
will develop, though exact visibility is more uncertain. VFR
conditions should return to most sites by 16z today. Stratus
clouds are expected to stream back into the area from the south
after 00z, affecting KBRD, KINL, KHIB and KDLH by the end of the
TAF period. Confidence in timing is not very high but have put an
initial time and expect to adjust with later issuances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  20  34  31  42 /   0  10  20  20
INL  15  34  28  41 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  22  37  32  44 /   0  10  10  20
HYR  20  37  31  42 /   0  10  20  30
ASX  24  37  32  45 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Huyck
AVIATION...LE



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