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000
FXUS63 KDLH 140530 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 AM CDT FRI JUN 14 2013


.AVIATION...06Z TAFS...VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.  A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPORACH THE INL-BRD TAF SITES
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOWERING THE CIGS.  RAINSHOWERS WILL SPREAD
INTO BRD BY 00Z AND INL BY 03Z. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
INRAIN AT THOSE LOCATIONS.  THE PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD EAST AND
WILL AFFECT THE DLH/HIB TAF SITES AFTER 06Z.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 850 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

UPDATE...MADE MINOR CHANGE TO TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER FOR OVERNIGHT
TIME PERIOD. SOME CLOUDS ARE DRIFTING FROM THE WEST FROM WEAK
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013/

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE
DULUTH CWA TONIGHT WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. SOME
INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS IS EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT AS
CIRRUS BLOW OFF FROM ANTICIPATED CONVECTION TO OUR WEST IS
ADVECTED EASTWARD..MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS. RATHER
SHORT NIGHT THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL LIMIT COOLING POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT..BUT PARTS OF THE ARROWHEAD AND NW WISCONSIN MAY DROP
INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS IN
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION REGIME ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN SOME FORM
FRIDAY AS THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENT SLOWLY
TRANSLATES TO THE EAST IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING RIDGE AXIS. WE
DID NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST..BUT DID NUDGE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS UPWARD JUST A BIT LATER FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST..FOCUSED ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE
DEVELOPING MUCAPE GRADIENT. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/TSTORMS IS
EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT/SAT MORNING..BEYOND THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH A
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION INTO
SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVER SOUTHERN
MANITOBA BY SUNDAY. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO ONTARIO...ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHLAND. AS THE LOW MOVES ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER ON MONDAY...SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA INTO LATE MONDAY. A SHORTWAVE WILL
ENTER THE REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE NEXT SHOT OF
PRECIPITATION...MAINLY FOR THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA. A RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH
DRY WEATHER BEFORE THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO MOVE IN FROM THE
WEST ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE AROUND NORMAL THROUGH
THE PERIOD.


&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  77  55  76 /  60  30  10  20
INL  52  78  50  75 /  60  20  10  40
BRD  61  79  57  79 /  60  10  10  20
HYR  57  78  56  80 /  70  40  10  20
ASX  52  74  53  76 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM....CLC