Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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101
FXUS63 KDLH 272012
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
312 PM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

A quasi stationary cut off low, continuing to rotate over Lake
Superior, will finally start to retreat to the south overnight.
The low will migrate into the Chicago vicinity by Wednesday
afternoon.

A swath of rain showers, associated with a corridor of cold
unstable mid level air, is currently pushing southward across the
forecast area as it warps around the low. The rain will gradually
diminish through the night as drier and warmer air returns to the
region through Wednesday.

A few lingering showers will continue over northern wisconsin
Wednesday morning, otherwise skies will gradually clear through
the afternoon and evening time frame. Winds will be out of the
north tomorrow, with gusts around 20 mph across northern
wisconsin. Winds will decrease in strength towards the north and
west. Wednesday will also bring warmer temperatures with afternoon
readings in the upper 50s to low 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Summary: A large area of low pressure will dig from the Indiana/Ohio
border area to Kentucky, where it will be cut off and forced to spin
for a while due to block high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean. The
low will then retrograde or lift back north to mainland Michigan or
the eastern Great Lakes into the upcoming weekend. The low will help
maintain easterly flow across the Northland through the weekend, but
temperatures will be slightly warmer than seasonal normals, with
highs primarily in the lower to middle 60s, and low temperatures in
the lower to middle 40s.

Wednesday night...A large, vertically stacked area of low pressure
over the Indiana/Ohio border area, as of Wednesday evening, will
shift to Kentucky, while a ridge of surface high pressure will shift
east into northeast Minnesota. The ridge will help promote clearing
skies across the Northland, but it looks like there will before
lingering low-level cloud cover than previously thought. The cloud
cover will help bolster the temperatures a bit, probably enough to
help stave off the threat of frost across parts of northeast
Minnesota. Temperatures will likely dip into near 40 degrees across
much of northeast Minnesota, and the lower 40s across northwest
Wisconsin.

Thursday through Sunday...The low over Kentucky will get cut off and
blocked thanks to high pressure over the Atlantic Ocean. The low
will spin over Kentucky through Thursday night, then retrograde or
lift back north to mainland Michigan or the eastern Great Lakes into
the weekend. The Northland can expect several days of light easterly
flow and relatively similar weather. The easterly flow will probably
bring some extra moisture from the Great Lakes, so daily afternoon
scattered cumulus is possible. The 4 km NAM is already indicating
this cumulus for Thursday, with a lake breeze pushing the cumulus
inland from Lake Superior.

Monday...Breezy southeast flow will likely develop as low pressure
moves into the Northern Plains from the west. The GFS and ECMWF runs
continue to delay in time when the low and its cold front move
through the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest next week, which will
bring the next chance of precipitation. It now appears the
precipitation would not affect the Northland until late Monday or
even Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

A large area of low pressure over eastern Lake Superior is
resulting in cool northwest flow, widespread MVFR ceilings, and
light rain across northeast Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin, as
of early this afternoon. The low will move south through the Great
Lakes region, which will shift the current light rain to the south
and east by later today. However, the low ceilings are expected to
linger into Wednesday morning, at times becoming IFR this evening
and overnight.

High pressure will begin to shift into the region Wednesday,
helping to clear out the region. There could be a period of MVFR
ceilings late Wednesday morning and early afternoon from
widespread broken cumulus clouds until better lifting and clearing
of the clouds occurs later in the afternoon.

There could be a brief period of significant low-level wind shear
at KHYR late tonight, shortly before and around dawn. The hourly
RAP model is indicating an impulse of stronger north-northeast
flow aloft, nearly 35 knots, could pass through the KHYR area over
a 3-hour window. May need to add LLWS with subsequent forecasts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  60  44  62 /  60  10   0   0
INL  44  59  40  66 /  20  10   0   0
BRD  46  60  41  65 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  47  60  44  66 /  80  20   0   0
ASX  51  58  47  63 /  70  30   0   0

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ146-147.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ144-
     145.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT
     Wednesday for LSZ140>143.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT Wednesday for LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Graning
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Grochocinski



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