Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 042131
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
431 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 431 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

WITH SFC HIGH BUILDING OVER THE AREA...HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF
RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED
BY THE LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS. REST OF THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM IS SHOWERS ENDING THIS EVENING AND
INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY  CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
MN AND ACROSS MOST OF NW WI. RADAR SHOWED SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD EARLIER BUT THEY HAVE DECREASED IN AREAL
COVERAGE. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL DISSIPATE BY SUNSET BUT THERE
COULD BE SOME CLOUDS LINGERING SO WILL GO WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES
TONIGHT.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE MORE SUN IN THE MORNING THAN IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE AREA APPROACHES NW MN. THE
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEST TO EAST IN THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW APPROACHES THE ND/MN BORDER BY 00Z.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 343 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

FOCUS IN EXTENDED ON A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES THAT WILL TRACK OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...POTENTIALLY
BRINGING AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.

THE FIRST VORT MAX...WITH SFC REFLECTION CLOSED LOW WILL
TRANSLATE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WED NIGHT/THURS. THERE
REMAINS MODEL DIFFERENCES IN NORTHERN EXTENT OF THIS WAVE...WITH THE
TREND TO PUSH IT FURTHER NORTH INTO CANADA.

A WARM FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
THURSDAY...BECOMING THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS.
ALTHOUGH THIS AREA IS LACKING SHEAR...NAM SUGGESTS ENOUGH CAPE
TO SUPPORT A FEW STRONG STORMS.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL RAPIDLY DEEPENING OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS/WESTERN MN THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE FOUND AHEAD OF A DIFLUENT UPPER LEVEL H30 FLOW. THIS WAVE
WITH CLOSED H85 LOW WILL PUSH INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES THURSDAY
EVENING...SPREADING RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE MINOR DISAGREEMENTS
IN TIMING AND TRACK... LATEST NAM/GFS/ECM ARE ALL SHOWING REASONABLE
AGREEMENT THE LOW REACHES WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/NRN WISCONSIN FRIDAY
MORNING. DURING THIS TIME...DEW POINTS RETURN TO THE UPPER 60S AND
PWAT VALUES INCREASE TO THE 1.5 TO 2 INCH RANGE; PROMOTING AREAS OF
HEAVY RAIN.

CONTINUE TO CARRY POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE UNSTABLE NORTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS. HOWEVER...LONG RANGE MODELS ARE HINTING AT A H50
RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE AUG 4 2015

COLD AIR ADVECTION AROUND A DEEP LOW OVER HUDSON BAY HAD BROUGHT
INCREASING CLOUDS AND OCCASIONAL DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN TO MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA. PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND KINL AND KHIB, WITH PREVAILING VFR
CEILINGS AROUND 5 KFT ELSEWHERE. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETREAT AFTER 00Z WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL
TURN OUT OF THE EAST AND USHER IN ADDITIONAL CLOUDS FROM ONTARIO
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  73  55  74 /   0  10  40  50
INL  47  74  52  74 /   0  10  60  40
BRD  53  79  57  79 /   0  10  50  50
HYR  49  77  54  78 /   0  10  30  40
ASX  51  73  54  76 /   0  10  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING



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