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000
FXUS63 KDLH 250537 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1237 AM CDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS EVENING. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS STRETCHED FROM NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTHEAST
MINNESOTA. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN WAS HELPING TO DRIVE THESE
SHOWERS...AND THIS MOVES EAST THEN DIMINISHES OVERNIGHT. MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS...BUT THE OVERALL
CHANCE OF THAT IS LOW AND MOST LIKELY TOWARD KBRD. AN AREA OF MVFR
CEILINGS EXISTS OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA LATE THIS
EVENING...AND THE RAP SHOWS THOSE MOVING QUICKLY NORTH INTO
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA TONIGHT BUT DOES NOT BRING THEM INTO KBRD ON
SATURDAY. WE`LL HAVE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESSION OF THESE CLOUDS...AS
WE WENT VFR FOR PREVAILING CONDITIONS AT KBRD THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 646 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

UPDATE...

AREA RADARS SHOW AN AREA OF RAIN...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...FROM
FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS OF EARLY
EVENING. THIS IS TIED CLOSELY WITH AN AREA OF 700MB FGEN. THE FGEN
WILL MOVE A BIT TO THE EAST TONIGHT...THEN DIMINISH BY 12Z. WE
WILL UPDATE IN A BIT TO ADJUST POPS AND WE`LL USE THE 700MB FGEN
AS A GUIDE TO WHERE TO PUT THE HIGHER POPS.

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND AS OF EARLY EVENING...BUT AN
AREA OF SHOWERS WERE MOVING EAST TOWARD KBRD/KXVG. WE EXPECT THIS
AREA OF SHOWERS...AND POSSIBLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS...TO MOVE EAST
THIS EVENING. IT SHOULD NOT OVERTAKE ALL AREAS AS DRIER AIR
EXISTS OVER THE EAST...AND THE FORCING RESPONSIBLE DOES NOT MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND EITHER. KBRD WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT
SEEING RAIN TONIGHT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WEST...WITH CEILINGS LOWERING OVER OTHER LOCATIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND
WESTERN MN WILL SLOWLY SPREAD EAST THIS EVENING. THIS AREA IS AN
AREA OF LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION AND AN ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL
VORT MAX ROUNDING OUT THE TOP OF UPPER RIDGE.  MOST OF THE LIFT
ASSOCIATE WITH THE SYSTEMS WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST SECTIONS
OF THE CWA...WHERE THERE ARE THE HIGHER POPS. PUT SOME POPS IN
FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR IN MN AND NORTHWEST
WI...BUT WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 20S...IT WILL TAKE AWHILE TO
MOISTEN UP FOR RAIN.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS...LOCAL AND THE SREF...ARE CONSISTENT IN
SHOWING THE BAND OF SHOWERS OUT TO THE WEST WITH MORE SPOTTY
SHOWERS OVER THE EAST LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. BY
AFTERNOON THE MAJOR AREA OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOSTLY BE ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...LEAVING MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
UNDER CLOUDY SKIES.

LONG TERM [SATURDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA AND THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WILL
HELP TO SUPPRESS RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE HEADING INTO A POTENTIALLY
WARM...WET...AND ACTIVE PERIOD NEXT WEEK. A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST AS A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE WEST. THE MODELS INDICATE ONE
OR MORE WARM FRONTS MAY MOVE THROUGH OR NEAR THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD...WHICH COULD BE A STORMY PERIOD FOR THE
NORTHLAND.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  41  61  43 /  20   0  10  10
INL  62  43  67  45 /  20  10   0  10
BRD  58  46  63  50 /  50  10  30  30
HYR  61  41  67  47 /  30   0  10  20
ASX  60  39  63  44 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MELDE