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000
FXUS63 KDLH 230552
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 AM CDT THU MAY 23 2013

.AVIATION...06Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES THE NORTHLANDS WEATHER. THERE WILL BE SOME LLWS OVER
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT...AND WE INCLUDED IN THE
KHYR TAF.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 637 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION...00Z TAFS

VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND. LIGHT RAIN WAS DIMINISHING OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS EVENING...AND THAT TREND WILL CONTINUE. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL THEN OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

THERE MAY BE SOME LLWS ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TONIGHT...AND WE
INCLUDED THAT IN THE KHYR TAF.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 339 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER HUDSON BAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...BECOMING THE SOURCE FOR MUCH DRIER AIR AND CLEARING
SKIES.

A NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WILL BRING CAA AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
30S. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES FROM PREV FCST WITH
THE COOLEST READINGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NRN ZONES AND INTO NRN WI
WHERE H85 TEMPS REACH NEAR ZERO BY DAYBREAK. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL AID IN RADIATIONAL COOLING...BUT EXPECTING LIGHT WINDS TO
KEEP TEMPS MODERATED SOMEWHAT. HOWEVER...WITH DEW PTS UPSTREAM IN
THE 20S TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...IF WINDS GO CALM
TEMPERATURES COULD FALL FURTHER.

THE COOL AIR ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEP LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR
MIXING HEIGHTS AROUND 5-6 KFT THURSDAY. DEW POINTS/RH WILL FALL
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH RH REACHING THE 20-25 PERCENT RANGE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THE LOWEST RH...15-20 PERCENT IN SPOTS...WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD ZONES AND ACROSS NORTHERN WIS. WINDS THURSDAY
WILL BE GUSTY...MAINLY LATE MORNING...THEN DECREASING AFTER THE
NOON HOUR AS THE RIDGE AXIS SETTLES OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS...BUT STILL
BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS THE IN THE 60S. COOLER READINGS WILL BE
FOUND NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS.

LONG TERM [THURSDAY NIGHT - TUESDAY]...

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN CANADA WILL HELP KEEP
THE NORTHLAND DRY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE IN THE
HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH GIVES PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND LOW
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE QUITE CHILLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME AREAS WILL SEE FROST AND/OR A HARD
FREEZE...SO IT MAY BE TIME TO PULL IN THOSE POTTED PLANTS. I DID NOT
PUT FROST IN THE FORECAST BECAUSE OUR OFFICE IS NOT ISSUING
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES UNTIL NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT THEN THERE
SHOULD EB WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  63  42  58 /   0   0  10  20
INL  30  67  42  64 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  36  67  48  61 /   0   0  40  30
HYR  27  68  41  62 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  31  64  39  59 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION...MELDE