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000
FXUS63 KDLH 221534
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1034 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013

.UPDATE...
UPDATED GRIDS TO REFLECT CURRENT SKY COVER AND RIBBON OF -RA/DZ
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE CWA. THE REGION OF RAIN SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE AS IT PUSHES SOUTH OVER THE WIS ZONES
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST MUCH DRIER AIR SINKS
INTO THE NRN AREAS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AT 1030 AM...VIS SAT
IMAGERY DEPICTED THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HAD PUSHED INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MN...AND REACHED A LINE FROM CRANE LAKE..TO BEMIDJI. BASED
ON RH FIELDS AND BUFR SOUNDINGS...EXPECTING THE CLEARING LINE TO
REACH THE RANGE CITIES BY NOON...REACHING A KBRD TO KDLH LINE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON /AROUND 4-5 PM/...THEN PASSING OVER THE WIS ZONES
THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 702 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY START TO WIN THE BATTLE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY INTO TONIGHT. SKIES WILL START OUT THE DAY AND
REMAIN VFR AT KINL. AS THE DAY WEARS ON...CONDITIONS WILL CHANGE
FROM LARGELY IFR/LIFR TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. ONCE THE CLOUDS
CLEAR...THEY WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE NIGHT.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 312 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY...CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS RAIN SHOWERS
CONTINUING ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT OVER THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE NW WI AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS ACROSS
THE FAR NORTH WHERE A RIDGE OF DRIER AIR IS PUSHING INTO
MINNESOTA. THIS RIDGE WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTHEAST TODAY ENDING THE
PRECIP NORTH TO SOUTH AS THE UPPER LOW FINALLY PULLS OFF TO THE
EAST BY TONIGHT. THE RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING EARLY THIS MORNING IS
IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE THAT WILL SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST
THIS MORNING. WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY UP FOR NOW AS RIVERS AND
CREEKS ARE HIGH BUT SOME ARE CRESTING NOW. THERE MAY BE SOME RISES
DUE TO THE LATEST RAINS BUT SHOULD NOT BE MUCH.

TONIGHT...THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL SPREAD INTO NW WI BY
THIS EVENING WITH ALL RAIN SHOWERS ENDING IN PRICE COUNTY BY 06Z
THU. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND MUCH DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
INTO THE REGION.

THURSDAY...THE FLOW AROUND THE CANADIAN HIGH WILL PUSH VERY
DRY AIR INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR DEEP
MIXING WHICH WILL DRY OUT THE COLUMN. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL
DROP INTO THE 20S ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE LOWEST VALUES IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUNGE THROUGH THE 30S. MAY EVEN
SEE SOME 20S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI AND THE MN
ARROWHEAD...WHERE WINDS WILL LIKELY GO CALM. HAVE DROPPED TEMPS TO
FREEZING OR A LITTLE BELOW FOR NOW. WE DO NOT START FROST AND FREEZE
HEADLINES UNTIL AFTER THIS TIME FRAME BUT WILL LIKELY SEE A GOOD
FROST IF NOT A FREEZE. THE WEATHER THEN STARTS TO GET A LITTLE MORE
QUESTIONABLE STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED...AS HUDSON BAY HIGH PRESSURE BATTLES EMERGING LOW
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. IN ALL LIKELIHOOD THE ONLY REAL BATTLEGROUND
SHOULD BE IN THE SW PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE NE HALF OR SO OF THE CWA. WILL GO WITH CONSENSUS POPS FOR
NOW...WHICH FAVOR THE SW HALF WITH SOME SMALL POPS. IN ALL IT DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE A VERY WET PERIOD...JUST PERIODIC CHANCES OF SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY SW. BETTER CHANCES OF SEEING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE FROM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...AND ESPECIALLY TOWARD MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
START IN THE 60S AND RECOVER TO THE 70S THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  37  57  36 /  80  10   0   0
INL  70  39  62  34 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  58  42  65  37 /  80  10   0   0
HYR  52  38  61  32 /  50  40   0   0
ASX  45  38  54  32 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI