Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 272354
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
554 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

HAVE REFINED SKY COVER THIS EVENING TO REFLECT CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND SAT IMAGERY. HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED FLURRIES
OVERNIGHT TO ACCOMPANY THE FROPA AS SEVERAL AUTOMATED STATIONS
CURRENTLY LOCATED AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE REPORTING LOW
CLOUDS/FLURRIES. STATIONS ALONG THE SFC BOUNDARY IN FAR NW
MINNESOTA ARE REPORTING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WITH VSBYS OF 2-4 SM.
THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AS THEY DRIFT OVER
NE MINNESOTA THIS EVENING DUE TO WEAKENING MID LEVEL OMEGA. ANY
LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE SHORT LIVED WITH ONLY A DUSTING OF
ACCUMULATION...MAINLY ACROSS THE IRON RANGE/ARROWHEAD ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

TRANSITIONAL WEATHER PATTERN TODAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH
BROUGHT 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LEADING TO A PERIOD OF SUNNY SKIES. THIS PERIOD
OF SUNSHINE WILL BE LIMITED AS A MID-LEVEL CLOUD DECK APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
TROUGH WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW
ZERO IN THE BORDERLAND AND IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE
TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO ELY...OTHERWISE A DRY NIGHT IN
STORE. TOMORROW NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BRING COLDER AIR INTO THE
REGION...WHICH COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE FETCH OVER THE LAKE COULD
LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PRIMARILY ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON AND ASHLAND
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 AM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

THE COLD ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT THE
BEGINNING OF WORK WEEK.  THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE NW WI SNOWBELT AREAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE WINDS
WILL BE SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE  FOR THE TIME PERIOD.  THE WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE WEST BY MONDAY EVENING ENDING THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE
NEXT CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM WILL BE WIND CHILLS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  LOW TEMPS WILL REACH THE -8 TO -15 RANGE BOTH NIGHT
AND WINDS WILL BE 7-11 MPH.  THIS WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILLS IN THE
-25 TO -30 RANGE WHICH IS WIND CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR BOTH
NIGHTS. THE READINGS/VALUES WILL BE UPDATED WITH MODEL RUNS AND
POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS BEGINNING
LEVELS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK.  WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL BRING A POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION THURSDAY AND FREIDA.  RIGHT NOW...MOISTURE IS LIMITED SO
THERE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 536 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS MINNESOTA THIS EVENING....REACHING
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL BRING LOWERING
CEILINGS AND FLURRIES. EXPECT A 4-6 HOUR WINDOW OF MVFR CIGS TO
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...FOLLOWED BY RAPID CLEARING AND
IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   8  13   3   6 /  10  10  10  10
INL  -7   5  -7   1 /  20  10   0   0
BRD   9  14   2   9 /  10  10  10  10
HYR   9  17   6  10 /  10  20  20  20
ASX  11  16  12  12 /  10  40  40  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...GRANING





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