Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 231811
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
111 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

BOOSTED UP MAX TEMPS AGAIN AS PREVIOUS FORECAST MAX TEMP RANGE HAS
BEEN SURPASSED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1028 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

INCREASED MAX TEMPS IN SEVERAL SPOTS AS PREVIOUS MAX TEMPS HAVE
ALREADY BEEN PASSED. CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND HAVE SLOWED A BIT IN THEIR NEWD ADVANCE FROM SOUTHERN MN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 835 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A VORT MAX WAS MOVING ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AT 13Z AND
GENERATING CLOUD COVER ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BORDER. ANOTHER VORT
MAX WAS MOVING THROUGH SW MN WITH CLOUDS BEGINNING TO PUSH A BIT
FARTHER NE TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL MN. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO CLOUD
COVER AS A RESULT. ALSO LOWERED DEW POINTS WHERE LESS CLOUD COVER
IS EXPECTED. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY...AND INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...ORIENTED NW TO SE FROM NORTH
DAKOTA INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER
THE REGION TODAY AND SLIDE SLOWLY TO THE N/NE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE SW LATE THIS
WEEKEND.

SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY OVER THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
2 LATER TODAY AND A NARROW BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN FORCED BY BROAD
WAA AT 700MB WILL PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL AND
E-CENTRAL MN THIS AFTERNOON. RAINFALL AMTS WILL BE LIGHT.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID
WEST A STRONG SURGE OF WARM UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE DRAWN NWD INTO
MN/WI. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND NORTH OF A NWD
MOVING WARM FRONT. EARLY SUNDAY AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM PARK RAPIDS TO DULUTH TO
ASHLAND/IRONWOOD IN THE AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL AND ALLOW A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
STORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN IS SHAPING UP FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD SUNDAY
NIGHT...SPREADING GRADUALLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. STRONG UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL INITIALLY KEEP THINGS DRY ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT PRECIPITATION SHOULD REACH ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA
AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED OVER MINNESOTA BY 12Z MONDAY. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
WILL ALSO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN SPOTS AS
MOISTURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH. THE CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GENERALLY DECREASE BY TUESDAY... AS
THE SYSTEM PULLS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND WE TRANSITION TO A MORE
WEST/NW FLOW ALOFT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFF AND ON FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK WILL RANGE FROM THE 60S TO 70S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S TO 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 111 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THERE HAS BEEN AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHLAND...BUT IT
REMAINED VFR AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
AN AREA OF WAA AND DISTURBANCE ALOFT WERE CAUSING LIGHT SHOWERS
OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS THERE WILL BE A DECREASE ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
LIGHT PRECIP AS IT MOVES NORTH. IT IS POSSIBLE A LIGHT SHOWER WILL
OCCUR AT KBRD/KHYR LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR AFTER 18Z SUNDAY.

EXPECT CEILINGS TO DEVELOP THEN LOWER TO 5-8KFT AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  70  50  64 /  10  30  60  80
INL  46  76  49  67 /   0  10  20  70
BRD  51  67  54  69 /  20  40  70  80
HYR  50  72  54  71 /  10  30  80  70
ASX  50  75  48  66 /  10  30  70  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE





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