Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 032032
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LOW STILL IN CONTROL OVER HUDSON BAY
CANADA...SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD UNTIL
NIGHTFALL WHEN LAPSE RATES WILL LOWER. A SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL ALSO
BE SEEN IN NORTHWEST WI. BY TUESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED EAST
OF HUDSON BAY...BUT COLDER AIR ALOFT WILL AGAIN HELP GENERATE
CLOUDS IN THE ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW. WITH A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WINDS WILL NOT NEARLY BE AS STRONG.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 234 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

CONCERNS FOR THE LONG TERM IS PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY

THE RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY APPROACHES THE REGION.  THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS WITH THE SOLUTION WITH THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW AND THE EXTENT
OF THE RAIN SHIELD.  THE GFS HAS THE LOW MOVING ALONG THE IOWA-MN
BORDER WHILE THE NAM HAS THE MOVEMENT THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY

THE LOW ON THE GFS IS MORE DEFINED THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF IS MUCH
DIFFERENT WITH TAKING THE LOW ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
FORMING A LOW IN IOWA BY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE GFS IS FURTHER NORTH
WITH THE RAIN SHIELD AND LARGER AMOUNTS THAN THE NAM.  THE ECMWF HAS
THE RAIN SHIED NORTH WITH THE LOW.  BASED ON THE CURRENT TREND AND
PREVIOUS FORECAST...WILL GENERALLY STAY WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH
THE BEST CHANCES IN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST COUNTIES.

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ON FRIDAY SO WILL KEEP A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORM IN THE GRIDS.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY BRINING ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

LOW END VFR WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
AFTERNOON TODAY AS A LAYER OF 3-4KFT CLOUDS MOVE ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON TO AROUND
20-30KTS OR SO... BUT WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY THIS EVENING. THERE
IS A POTENTIAL FOR SOME OCCASIONAL FOG AND MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT...
WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITIES AT HIB/INL/HYR. AFTER THE MORNING
INVERSION BREAKS TUESDAY... EXPECT CLEARING SKIES AND PREVAILING
VFR THROUGH THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  71  52  72 /  10  10   0   0
INL  45  69  45  71 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  50  77  52  76 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  48  73  47  74 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  51  71  50  72 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...MCLOVIN


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