Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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470
FXUS63 KDLH 111519 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
919 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

RATHER EXPANSIVE DECK OF ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS THAT WAS NOT WELL-
FORECAST HAS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN MN AS OF MID
MORNING..LIKELY THE RESULT OF WEAK MID LEVEL ASCENT AHEAD OF LOW
AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE THAT WILL USHER IN THE NEXT SURGE OF ARCTIC
AIR. LOOKING AT UPSTREAM SAT IMAGERY..THESE CLOUDS LOOK LIKE THEY
WILL BE AROUND FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH THE WAVE STILL
APPROACHING..SO WE HAVE TRENDED SKY COVER MUCH MORE TOWARD THE
CLOUDY END OF THE SPECTRUM. ITS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THERE
EVENTUALLY COULD BE A FEW FLURRIES..ESPECIALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF
ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR.

TEMPS HAVE ALSO RECOVERED BY 8-15 DEGREES FROM MORNING LOWS..AND
WHILE STILL QUITE COLD AND WELL BELOW ZERO..WITH LITTLE TO NO
WIND WIND CHILL VALUES ARE NOW WELL ABOVE ADVISORY THRESHOLDS OF
-25F IN MOST LOCATIONS. THEREFORE..WE HAVE CANCELLED THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORY A BIT EARLY. VERY SLOW WARM UP SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING AS AN EVER-SO-SLIGHT WARMING TO THE LOWER
TROPOSPHERE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE NEXT ARCTIC SURGE ON SCHEDULE FOR
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

AT 3 AM...VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WERE ONCE AGAIN FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 26 BELOW ZERO AT COOK...TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE AREA. MUCH OF THE
REST OF THE REGION WERE IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. CLOUDS PERSISTED ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE...FROM
THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA INTO IRON AND NORTHEASTERN PRICE COUNTY.
ANOTHER AREA OF CLOUDS WAS STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION.

THE FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE WIND CHILL READINGS THIS
MORNING. WE CURRENTLY HAVE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AND THE DULUTH AND CLOQUET AREAS. BASED ON CURRENT
TRENDS...THIS AREA LOOKS GOOD AND WILL LET IT CONTINUE THROUGH 10
AM THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL BE A BIT TRICKY TODAY...AS A DECENT
SIZE AREA OF CLOUDS WAS HEADING SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF MANITOBA AND
NW ONTARIO. OVERALL IT LOOKS PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS
THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SOME INCREASE IN CLOUDS NORTH AND WEST
THIS AFTERNOON.

ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BECOME NORTHWEST...WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BOTTOM
OUT WELL BELOW ZERO...WITH ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY POSSIBLE.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE
SOUTH SHORE. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO IN THE
NORTH...AND ONLY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY COLD THEN THERE WILL BE A
GRADUAL WARMING TREND. THERE WILL ALSO BE A COUPLE OPPORTUNITIES FOR
SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A PAIR OF SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION.

AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO
ALBERTA FRIDAY EVENING WILL FLATTEN AS IT MOVES EAST AND AS A
SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. COLD NORTHERLY WINDS
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS GOING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS
WILL BE VERY COLD BUT DRY. ALSO THERE WILL BE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING. THESE FACTORS WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
SNOWFALL...BUT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY
OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SNOWBELT OF IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES.
ELSEWHERE...IT WILL BE VERY COLD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OVER
MINNESOTA AND ALTHOUGH THE CORE OF THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT WILL BE
EAST OF THE NORTHLAND...WE EXPECT LIGHT WINDS WHICH WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT TO PLUMMET TO 25 TO AROUND 30 BELOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH TEENS BELOW TO LOWER 20S BELOW
ELSEWHERE.

THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EAST INTO WISCONSIN ON SATURDAY WITH CONDITIONS
BECOMING LESS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW THROUGH THE DAY.

THE SHORTWAVE THAT HELPED DAMPEN THE WESTERN RIDGE WILL START TO
IMPACT THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MORE SO SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY CAUSING WAA. THAT
AND THE SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW TO MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. HEAVY SNOW LOOKS UNLIKELY...AND IT APPEARS SNOWFALL
FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AS WEAK TROUGHING
REMAINS OVER THE AREA.

UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BEYOND MONDAY AS THE GFS/ECMWF OFFER DIFFERENT
SOLUTIONS ON ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS SUGGEST LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY TO MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL ONLY
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO SATURDAY...BUT WILL WARM INTO THE
TWENTIES TO AROUND THIRTY BY MONDAY...THEN REMAIN IN THE TWENTIES
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST THU FEB 11 2016

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE NORTHLAND
TODAY...WITH A WEAK TROUGH...LOW LEVEL WAA AND SHORTWAVE ALL
IMPACTING THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY...FIRST A MID DECK...THEN LOWER VFR OR MVFR
CEILINGS. THE GUIDANCE IS NOT HANDLING THIS LOWER CLOUD ALL THAT
WELL...AND WE ARE MOST CONFIDENT IN KINL/KBRD GETTING MVFR
CEILINGS. CEILINGS WILL BECOME SCATTERED FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL BACK TO WEST TO SOUTHWEST TODAY...THEN VEER BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND INCREASE IN SPEED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  10  -7   3 -22 /   0  10   0   0
INL   9 -17  -4 -28 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  16  -6   6 -22 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  14  -5   7 -22 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  13  -3   5 -10 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE



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