Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 242334
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
534 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Radar, obs, and satellite imagery showing quite clearly the
rapidly developing system that will move bands of heavy snowfall
through our area this evening into Sunday morning. 3 hr pressure
drops of 4 to 6 mb across our forecast area hint at the intensity
of this system. Despite the fact that it is rocketing through the
region, the snowfall rates should be quite intense as the system
is just spinning up, and overall accumulations should be
significant. A strong 700 mb jet is ushering moisture rich air
into a frontogenetic band with plenty of vertical motion which
should squeeze out 1 to 2" per hour snowfall rates which should
drop visibilities to less than a 1/4 mile, so travel is not
advised tonight into early Sunday. Winter Storm Warnings are in
effect for this system. The surface low slides through central
Wisconsin wrapping around precipitation on the developing comma
head which should enhance accumulations on the north shore. The
upper level wave that is forcing the system moves off to the east
on Sunday morning and should lead to a rapid end to the snowfall
too. Temperatures are a bit on the warm side for dendritic growth,
but believe there will be quite a few aggregates due to the
moisture content of this system which should near a half an inch
of liquid equivalent. All said and done, 6 to 10 inches seems
perfectly reasonable with higher amounts along the north shore.

Drier air makes its way into the area on Sunday afternoon with
temperatures warming to near freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 342 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

After nearly a week and a half of a very active weather pattern
with several significant snowstorms across the Northland, the
extended period appears to hold a trend for much more tranquil
weather. While the general flow across the Lower 48 States remains
quite active for most of the week, an un-phased and somewhat
split flow pattern is expected to result in any major systems
staying either to our south or north.

Late Monday/Monday night, a fairly rapidly moving and relatively
weak system is expected to move across Ontario.  This wave could
produce enough lift to result in some light snow across far northern
Minnesota. However, at this time, it appears as though the
appreciable precipitation during this time period will remain in
Canada.

Most of the medium range models are fairly consistent in yet another
major storm system moving from the central Plains region into the
central Great Lakes during the Wed-Thur time period during the
coming week.  There is some potential, given the current medium
range deterministic guidance and ensemble envelope, that the
southeast sections of the Duluth CWA could get brushed by impacts
from this system, and thus, it does bear some watch.  But, unlike
the past week or so, the guidance at this time suggests that the
major impacts with this system will remain to the south and east of
the Duluth CWA.

Otherwise, general west/southwest flow aloft will keep any really
significant arctic air at bay.  The longer days, higher sun angle,
and lower albedo effects of the forested areas should result in
considerably warmer daytime temps than we have been accustomed to
since roughly the Christmas Holiday period, with daytime highs
reaching into the 30s for most of the week.  It`s not entirely out
of the question that some areas could reach into the lower 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 534 PM CST Sat Feb 24 2018

Snow has reached BRD and will eventually reach all terminals in
the next few hours. Cigs and vsbys will drop from VFR, quickly
into the IFR range with moderate to heavy snow bands. Some LIFR
and possibly VLIFR vsbys with the heavy snow. Plenty of
convective elements occurring as seen on satellite imagery before
sunset. Expect heavy snow at each terminal through the night. The
heavy snow will transition back to light snow after 06Z and
gradually end from southwest to northeast after 09Z. Cigs and
vsbys will also improve after 09Z with MVFR cigs and VFR vsbys.
Behind this system, gusty surface winds expected through the end
of the forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  20  29  15  36 / 100  10  10   0
INL  19  29  13  40 / 100  70  10   0
BRD  16  29  13  37 / 100   0   0   0
HYR  22  30  14  39 / 100  10  10   0
ASX  24  32  18  40 / 100  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Sunday for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

MN...Winter Storm Warning from 9 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday
     for MNZ011-012-019>021-026.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for MNZ025-033-034.

     Winter Storm Warning until 9 AM CST Sunday for MNZ035>038.

     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to noon CST
     Sunday for MNZ010-018.

LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Miller
AVIATION...GSF


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