Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 290921
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
421 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 990 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA HAS
BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE...TO CAUSE STRONG SURFACE WINDS TODAY.
WITH SUCH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH
AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN THE FROM THE WEST...EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN
BRAINERD. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KDLH RADAR SHOWS MEASURED 40
KTS AT 3000 FT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER- SO WE WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THIS
MORNING AS THE WINDS MIX DOWN. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER IN
WISCONSIN THE GRADIENT IS A BIT LOOSER...SO WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG. THE NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER
SECTION COMING THROUGH TODAY AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT..EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MUCH CALMER ON THURSDAY WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER HUDSON
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING DAYS WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW SWINGS SEVERAL FAST
MOVING SMALL WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION....RESULTING IN PERIODIC SMALL POPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY EARLY
MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE TODAY. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 50
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WRAPPING ACROSS NORTHERN MN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BRING SCT SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO KINL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
AS FAR SOUTH AS KHIB.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  10
INL  73  56  77  54 /  30  10  10  30
BRD  80  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  76  58  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  79  60  81  60 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING


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