Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 271725
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1125 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO CANCEL THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
WARNING A LITTLE EARLY AS SNOWFALL HAS TAPERED OFF AS EVIDENCED BY
WEAKENING RADAR RETURNS...APPEARANCE ON VISIBLE SATELLITE...AND
SPOTTER REPORTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO FORECAST TODAY...COLD AND
SUNNY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

THIS MORNING...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. TEMPERATURES HAVE PLUMMETED THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVER MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. SOME ARES OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA ARE IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO. WIND CHILLS WILL FLIRT WITH 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW ZERO FOR
A TIME UNTIL TEMPERATURES WARM UP LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL
BE LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER IRON AND ASHLAND COUNTIES THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS MORNING AS THE
WINDS WEAKEN AND BECOME MORE WESTERLY WITH THE APPROACHING HIGH
PRESSURE.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVER THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...BY ABOUT 15 TO 20
DEGREES. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE SINGLE DIGITS TO NEAR 10
DEGREES...MAKING THIS ONE OF THE COLDEST THANKSGIVINGS IN MEMORY.
THE FORECAST FOR DULUTH IS 9 DEGREES. IT WILL NOT HAVE BEEN THIS
COLD IN DULUTH ON THANKSGIVING SINCE 1985...WHEN IT ONLY REACHED 4
DEGREES THAT YEAR. THE THANKSGIVING OF 1996 WAS ALSO COLD AT 15
DEGREES THAT YEAR.

TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...AN ELEVATED WARM/STATIONARY FRONT IN THE
PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A
SURFACE LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. A
SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO CUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN DURING THIS TIME. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE THAT THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE WILL BRING A BAND OF SNOW
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE OVER
AREAS WELL SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. AREAS FROM CASS COUNTY TO BURNETT
COUNTY WILL SEE SNOWFALL OF ABOUT 2 TO 4 INCHES. THIS AREA WILL
ALSO SEE A TRANSITION TO LIGHT SLEET LATE FRIDAY MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE SNOW BEGINS TO PULL OUT OF THE REGION. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE A LAYER ALOFT THAT REACHES ABOUT
0 TO 3 DEGREES CELSIUS...BUT THAT ANY SNOW HAVING MELTED AND
FALLEN THROUGH THIS LAYER...WILL THEN FALL BACK INTO A VERY COLD
LAYER BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THEREFORE...FREEZING RAIN DOES
NOT SEEM POSSIBLE...BUT AT LEAST SOME SLEET. THE COMBINATION OF
THE MODERATE SNOW AND LIGHT SLEET THAT IS EXPECTED FROM CASS
COUNTY TO BURNETT COUNTY WAS THE REASON BEHIND THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY THAT WAS ISSUED...DESPITE OTHER PARTS OF NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA NORTHWEST WISCONSIN HAVING SIMILAR SNOWFALL FORECASTS OF
ABOUT 2 TO 3 INCHES. THE WINDS WITH THIS ROUND OF SNOW SHOULD BE
VERY LIGHT...SO WIND SHOULD NOT CONTRIBUTE MUCH TO ANY REDUCED
VISIBILITY FROM FALLING SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER ON
FRIDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MIDDLE TEENS TO LOW 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

AN OVERALL COLD AND UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

PRIMARY FOCUS IS ON A WARM FRONT...ASSOCIATED WITH AN H85 LOW
POSITIONED IN SRN MANITOBA...THAT LIFTS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME MODEL
DISCREPANCIES IN THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE FRONT...THERE IS
REASONABLE CONFIDENCE THAT THE WARM LAYER ALOFT WILL PASS OVER AT
LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE DLH CWA. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST MID LEVEL DRYING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL SUPPORT LIGHT
FZDZ FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN SITUATED IN THE WARM
SECTOR AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT SATURDAY...BRINGING A
THREAT FOR WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT FZRA/SLEET/SNOW AS TEMPS ALOFT WARM
INTO THE 2-4 C RANGE AS FAR NORTH AS HIBBING TO LUTSEN. AT THIS
TIME...THE MAIN AREA OF FOCUS FOR LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
ACROSS THE IRON RANGE/ARROWHEAD...NEAR THE WARM FRONT/LOW...WHERE
LATEST NAM BUFR PROFILES SUGGEST THE BEST MOISTURE AND PWAT VALUES
ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED A HALF INCH.

SATURDAY EVENING...A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE/COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE REGION...BRINGING A TRANSITION TO NW
WINDS...CAA...AND PLUMMETING TEMPERATURES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND. THE COLDEST READINGS ARE ON TRACK TO ARRIVE SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE H50 TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS ONTARIO AND
OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. THE 00Z RUNS OF THE GFS/ECM/GEM ALL
SUGGEST H85 TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C SKIRT ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND...WITH READINGS AROUND NEGATIVE 30 C NORTH OF THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THERE WILL BE A BRIEF RETURN TO SLY FLOW/WAA EARLY IN THE
WEEK...AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER CLIPPER/COLD FRONT THAT TRACKS OVER
THE REGION MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1125 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

VFR AT THE OUTSET. AFTER 08Z...LIGHT SNOW WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS WITH CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND LAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   9   3  18  16 /   0  70  80  30
INL   6  -4  17  11 /   0  40  50  40
BRD   8   5  20  17 /   0  80  80  20
HYR  10   0  20  17 /   0  70  80  20
ASX  11   3  19  16 /  40  60  70  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST
     FRIDAY FOR MNZ025-033>036-038.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM CST
     FRIDAY FOR WIZ006.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF





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