Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 230530
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1130 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 954 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

A couple of snow reports in Crow Wing County indicate 2 to 3
inches has fallen already. This was in response to the band of
heavy snow that extends from north of Brainerd to near Two Harbors
at this moment. This snow was the result of some 700mb FGEN with
a vorticity maxima lifting north through western Minnesota.
Another band of moderate to heavy snow moving toward northwest
Wisconsin in an area of 850mb FGEN. Have bumped up the snow
amounts a bit to account for these trends and observations.

UPDATE Issued at 627 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Snow has reached Brainerd and Aitkin, and will be moving into the
I35 corridor and into northwest Wisconsin in the next hour. The
forecast is in good shape.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 401 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

The focus for the short term period will be the potential for
locally heavy snow across the Northland tonight and Friday
morning. Temperatures at mid afternoon were generally in the range
from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. Clouds were spreading rapidly
northward and were nearing the international border at 4 pm. Snow
had already moved into portions of far southern Minnesota

The deterministic and CAMs models are all in pretty good agreement
concerning the evolution of the low pressure system that will
move across the Upper Midwest tonight and Friday. The snow should
move rapidly northward late this afternoon and evening, with
widespread snow then persisting for the rest of the night. Based
on forcing and QPF/available moisture, we should see widespread
snowfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with 6 to 9 inches possible
across the North Shore of Lake Superior. Decent forcing is also
expected with this system, with Thaler/QG indicating a fairly
impressive area of lift moving across the region. Some freezing
drizzle or perhaps a period of freezing rain will also be
possible, especially over northwest Wisconsin.

The snow will end from south to north on Friday, with conditions
improving markedly by midday. Highs on Friday will top out in the
upper 20s to lower 30s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 401 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

The focus in the extended continues to be on the storm system that
will move through in the Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning
period. High pressure will be in place to start the extended period
for Friday night into Saturday morning. Clouds will then be on the
increase as Saturday progresses as low pressure emerges from the
Rockies and begins to organize across southeastern Colorado/
northeastern New Mexico. This low will then move to the northeast
across the Central Plains Saturday and then into the Mid-Mississippi
Valley Saturday evening, spreading snow across the Northland
starting Saturday evening. While there still remains uncertainty in
the track of the low across the eastern Great Lakes, aspects of the
system continue to look very impressive. Thaler/QG values continue
to be in the -40 to -45 ubar/s range meaning large scale lift will
not be an issue with this system. In addition to the lift, QPF
amounts remain quite impressive for this time of year with amounts
approaching 1+ inches across parts of northwestern Wisconsin.
However, the ECMWF is not quite as bullish in this department. Price
County still has the potential to see some freezing rain/freezing
drizzle mixed in with the snow, which may cut down on snowfall
amounts a bit, especially across the southeastern portion of the
county. As for snowfall, the heaviest amounts look to run across all
of northwestern Wisconsin and into Pine, Carlton, Aitkin, Crow Wing,
central and southern St. Louis, Lake and Cook Counties in Minnesota.
There is the potential of 8+ inches of snow through northwestern
Wisconsin and along the North Shore of Lakes Superior. Snow will end
Sunday afternoon, but may hold on a little longer in far northern
areas depending on how quickly the system moves away.

Outside of the weekend system, the remainder of the week looks
relatively benign. A quick moving system will travel across southern
Manitoba and into western Ontario Monday night into Tuesday, but
most of the models keep QPF north of the International Border. The
GFS, and the ECMWF to a lesser extent, are hinting at a system for
the Wednesday night into Thursday period, but the tracks are quite
different and it doesn`t warrant more than a passing mention at this
time. Temperatures will run on the warm side of normal through the
periods with readings in the upper 20s and lower 30s during the day
and the teens and low 20s overnight.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

Light to moderate, and sometimes heavy, snow will affect the
terminals until about 15Z before ending. Cigs and vsbys will vary
through this activity with MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions. An isold
VLIFR is also possible. After 15Z, look for an improvement to VFR
through the morning and early afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  18  29   8  29 / 100  80   0  20
INL  14  26  -1  30 / 100  80   0  10
BRD  19  28   4  27 / 100  40   0  40
HYR  23  33   8  34 / 100  60  10  20
ASX  20  34  13  34 / 100  80  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Friday for WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning
     for WIZ001>004-006>009.

MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Friday for MNZ011-012-018-
     019-025-026-033>038.

     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning
     for MNZ012-019>021-034>038.

     Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Friday for MNZ020-021.

LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...Grochocinski/BJH
AVIATION...GSF



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