Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 050824
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
324 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A DECAYING MCS WAS AFFECTING THE NW CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AT
0730Z. THUNDERSTORMS WERE TRYING TO FORM AHEAD OF THE MCS IN AN AXIS
OF MUCAPE OF 500 J/KG. HOWEVER...AS THE STORMS ATTEMPTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD...THEY ARE ENCOUNTERING DRIER AIR THAT HAS BEEN LOCKED IN
PLACE FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS AND DECAYING. THE HIGH PRESSURE THAT HAD
BEEN IN CHARGE WAS DRIFTING OFF TO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WHILE A
SFC TROF WAS FOLLOWING BEHIND THE MCS INTO NW MN. THIS TROF WILL
MOVE LITTLE TODAY AND BE THE FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE DAY. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION THIS
MORNING AFTER THE MCS HAS RUN ITS COURSE. BUT BY AFTERNOON...A
PARADE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO EJECT OUT AHEAD OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL CANADA. MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE TROF DUE TO A LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WITH
WARM H85 TEMPS WHICH WILL REACH TO NEAR 18C BY 00Z MONDAY. THE
STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL HAVE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME HAIL
NEAR THE STRONGER STORMS NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER. THE WARM TEMPS
WILL REDUCE THE HAIL SIZE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE BORDER.

TONIGHT FINDS A LONG WAVE TROF MOVING INTO MN AS A DEEPENING SFC LOW
MOVES UP THE TROF INTO CENTRAL MN BY 12Z MONDAY. PWATS WILL APPROACH
2 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BY 12Z MONDAY. INGREDIENTS ARE
COMING TOGETHER FOR A PROLONGED HEAVY RAIN EVENT AFTER 06Z. HAVE A
MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN COINCIDING WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE MAX
THAT SEPARATES MN FROM WI BY 12Z. SEVERAL SPOTS COULD SEE 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN. BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN DRY LATELY...NOT EXPECTING ANY
FLOODING AS RIVERS ARE RUNNING A BIT BELOW NORMAL AND FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES ARE AROUND 2 INCHES IN ONE HOUR. WILL LIKELY SEE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND CULVERTS FILLING UP.

ON MONDAY...THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO NW ONTARIO BY 00Z TUESDAY. THE
BEST INSTABILITY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW IN NW WI AND AREAS
ADJACENT TO LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE MORNING FOR A THUNDER MENTION.
FURTHER TO THE WEST...HAVE REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION BUT KEPT IN
THE MODERATE RAIN. BY AFTERNOON...THE INSTABILITY HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY AS THE SFC LOW PULLS FARTHER AWAY. HAVE A MENTION OF
THUNDER IN THE FAR EASTERN EDGE OF THE WI FORECAST AREA WITH JUST
RAIN ELSEWHERE. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
REGION IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WORK WEEK WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES MID-
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. FOLLOWING A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DESCEND OUT
OF SOUTHERN CANADA LEADING TO COOLER WEATHER. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE WILL GIVE WAY TO A MORE ZONAL PATTERN TUESDAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...WHICH ALONG WITH A BAROCLINIC ZONE ACROSS WESTERN ONTARIO
INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA COULD LEAD TO SHOWERS/STORMS. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND WHEN A WEAK FRONT DIPS SOUTH INTO THE REGION. INSTABILITY
LOOKS TO BE BEST ON SATURDAY...THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE VERY WEAK WINDS
ALOFT WHICH WOULD PREVENT WIDESPREAD ORGANIZED CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WILL BE MAINLY VFR OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SOME FOG POSSIBLE IN A FEW AREAS...MOSTLY LIKELY AT KHYR UNTIL
SUNRISE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL SLOWLY BRING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND. FAR NORTHERN MN AND
INL MAY SEE A FEW OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...BUT MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE DAY SUNDAY. ONCE THE RAIN STARTS...IT WILL
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. RAIN WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES
RESULTING IN MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY FOR MUCH OF THE TIME IT
RAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  82  65  71  50 /  80  90 100  10
INL  79  58  68  46 /  70  60  30  10
BRD  86  65  73  50 /  90 100  80  10
HYR  83  68  73  51 /  30  80 100  20
ASX  84  67  72  53 /  30  80 100  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM



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