Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 241600 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1000 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

ARCTIC COLD FRONT LIES ROUGHLY ALONG A KEWEENAW PENINSULA/HAYWARD/
SIOUX FALLS LINE AS OF 930 AM. WHILE LEADING EDGE WIND SHIFT AND
TEMP GRADIENT ARE SOMEWHAT MORE DIFFUSE THAN OFTEN SEEN WITH
ARCTIC FRONTS WITH THE STRONGEST SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION LAGGING A
BIT BEHIND THE FRONT..SFC-925 TEMPS ARE DIVING FAST OVER FAR NRN
MN /925 TEMP ALREADY APPROACHING -20C AT KINL/..AND THIS WILL CONTINUE
TO PUSH SEWD THROUGH THE DAY.

STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND LOW LEVEL SUBSIDENCE ARE SUPERIMPOSED
OVER MOST OF THE DLH CWA CURRENTLY..AND THUS WE EXPECT THE SURFACE
WINDS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE MAX FOR THE DAY FROM NOW THROUGH ABOUT
NOON OR 1 PM. WHILE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN SOMEWHAT STRONG INTO THIS
EVENING..THE LOSS OF BETTER PRESSURE FALLS SHOULD ALLOW OVERALL
SPEEDS AND GUSTS TO RELAX BY 3-8 MPH IN MOST LOCATIONS BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON. HIGHER ELEVATIONS SUCH AS THE IRON RANGE RIDGE AND THE
NORTH SHORE RIDGE WILL LIKELY SEE HIGHER SPEEDS PERSIST
HOWEVER..ALONG WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY.

NUMEROUS WELL-ORGANIZED BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUD STREETS ARE EVIDENT
ALONG/EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR..AND OBS SUGGEST THAT THESE
ARE LIKELY PRODUCING PRETTY ROBUST SNOW SHOWERS UNDERNEATH THEM -
KINL VSBY RECENTLY DROPPED BRIEFLY TO LESS THAN 2 MILES AS ONE OF
THESE PASSED OVERHEAD. THESE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON..WITH PERHAPS SOME LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. THE BIGGEST IMPACT WILL LIKELY BE THE SNOW SHOWERS
INTERACTING WITH THE WINDS TO RESULT IN LOCAL AREAS OF ENHANCED
BLOWING SNOW/REDUCED VISIBILITY.

CONCERNING TONIGHT/WED MORNING..WHILE WINDS WILL DIMINISH
SIGNIFICANTLY BY TONIGHT..COMBINATION OF TEMPS AND WINDS WILL
LIKELY NECESSITATE WIND CHILL HEADLINES EVERYWHERE ROUGHLY
ALONG/NORTH OF THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION..WE WILL MAKE A
CLOSER EVALUATION OF THE LK EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL OVER NW WI. SW
WINDS YDAY OPENED UP RATHER LARGE AREAS OF OPEN WATER ON WRN LK
SUPERIOR UPSTREAM FROM THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA AND GOGEBIC
RANGE..WHICH COULD RESULT IN MORE ROBUST SNOW SHOWERS THAT
CURRENTLY INDICATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

AT 4 AM...MUCH OF THE CWA WAS IN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT MOVING INTO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER REGION. TEMPERATURES
WERE GENERALLY IN THE 20S ACROSS THE CWA...WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING INTO THE TEENS RIGHT ALONG THE BORDER REGION. WINDS WERE
FROM THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST...BUT WERE NORTHWEST ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WIND SPEEDS WERE INCREASING QUICKLY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE AT BAUDETTE AND
ROSEAU. LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MN WITH SOME
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ACROSS THE NORTH.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA DURING THE DAY. THE SNOW
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR A TIME...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE
NORTH AND WEST. COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION IN
SPOTS. TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S WILL GENERALLY FALL THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. HAVE RAISED WIND SPEEDS QUITE A BIT...AS WE WILL SEE STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...ALONG WITH H85 WINDS TO 40 KNOTS. COULD
EASILY SEE WIND GUSTS IN THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE...WITH A FEW
HIGHER WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY CLEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST...ALTHOUGH WE DO EXPECT CLOUD
STREETS AND PERHAPS A FEW SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES TO DEVELOP DUE TO
DAYTIME HEATING. THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE IN THE ARROWHEAD AND
ACROSS NW WI ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL WELL BELOW ZERO TONIGHT. MAY NEED TO ISSUE
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH TONIGHT.

WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE ON WEDNESDAY...IT WILL STILL REMAIN
ON THE COLD SIDE. HIGHS SHOULD REACH NEAR ZERO IN THE FAR NORTH
AND IN THE LOWER TEENS IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

A ZONAL FLOW...COMBINED WITH BUILDING SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER PLAINS...WILL BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND OVERALL DRY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. A RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND
BRING A BRIEF WARMING TREND FOR THE WEEKEND.

LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST AN UPPER STREAM TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA REGION SUNDAY...ALLOWING FOR A STRONG
THERMAL GRADIENT TO DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY. A CORRIDOR OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY
HEAVY...WILL BE FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE THERMAL
GRADIENT/FRONTOGENESIS.  AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE MOISTURE/SNOW REACHES AS FAR NORTH AS SOUTHERN WIS...WITH ONLY
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM IS
VERY FAR OUT IN THE LONG RANGE SO TIMING AND TRACK ARE OPEN TO QUITE
A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 603 AM CST TUE FEB 24 2015

BANDS OF SNOW WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE MN
TERMINALS THROUGH 16Z...LINGERING OVER WISCONSIN INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY AS ARCTIC AIR SINKS OVER THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23 -11   7 -12 /  40   0   0   0
INL  10 -21   1 -22 /  30   0   0   0
BRD  25  -7   9 -13 /  30   0   0   0
HYR  25 -12  10 -16 /  40  10   0   0
ASX  25  -7   8 -11 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






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