Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 180538
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1138 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 753 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUED OVER BAYFIELD...ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES.
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER IRON/GOGEBIC COUNTIES LOOK RATHER STRONG ON
RADAR WITH 20-25DBZ ECHOES SEEN BETWEEN 8700-10000FT. ANOTHER BAND
OF SNOW EXTENDED FROM THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA SOUTH TOWARD KHYR.
THIS IS THE REMNANTS OF A GRAVITY WAVE AND HAS BEEN WEAKENING
THROUGH THE EVENING.

CONDITIONS REMAIN QUITE FAVORABLE FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...THEN WINDS START TO BACK. THE RAP INDICATES
MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR THE GRAVITY WAVE BAND TO REFORM/INTENSIFY
TONIGHT. FORCING WILL BE ADEQUATE AS THE MEAN FLOW REMAINS
STRONG...BUT MOISTURE LOOKS MARGINAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

AT 352 PM...SNOW HAD STARTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE OF IRON COUNTY. OUR SNOWFALL OBSERVER IN GILE
REPORTED 1 INCH OF NEW SNOWFALL TODAY...BUT IT HAD JUST RECENTLY
STARTED TO INTENSIFY. FURTHER WEST...4 INCHES OF SNOW HAD FALLEN
IN THE IRON RIVER AREA...FROM PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW THAT HAD SET
UP IN THAT AREA EARLIER TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WAS
GENERALLY SEEING PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS. ASIDE FROM THE SOUTH SHORE THERE WAS LITTLE SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT IS DEFINITELY THE SOUTH SHORE LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL EVENT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK QUITE FAVORABLE
OVERNIGHT...ALBEIT A BIT TOO WESTERLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE NIGHT.
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING...INCLUDING THE HRRR AND THE WRF INDICATE
SNOW SQUALLS WILL BECOME INTENSE DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN
REMAIN THAT WAY FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND
BUFKIT ANALYSIS INDICATES EXTREME INSTABILITY AND INVERSION
HEIGHTS OF UP TO AN AMAZING 5 KM. INVERSION HEIGHTS CRASH DURING
THE DAY TUESDAY...BUT WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AS THE DAY
WEARS ON...DRAMATICALLY REDUCING THE LAKE EFFECT POTENTIAL. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR THE GOGEBIC RANGE
AREA...FOR A TOTAL OF 8 TO 14 INCHES. FURTHER WEST...WILL CONTINUE
THE ADVISORY FOR BAYFIELD COUNTY...WITH GENERALLY 4 TO 8 INCHES.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE THE OTHER ISSUE. WIND CHILL READINGS MAY DROP
TO AS LOW AS 15 TO 20 BELOW IN MUCH OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN A BIT GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

COLD AND CLOUDY WEATHER TO BEGIN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH A BRIEF
WARM UP EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW OVERALL
WITH A FEW CHANCES FOR SNOW ON WEDNESDAY AND LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...GOOD CHANCE FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ON
WEDNESDAY GENERALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FROM
INTERNATIONAL FALLS EAST THROUGH THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD REGION.
THIS WILL BE CAUSED BY AN ELONGATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING
SOUTH OUT OF MANITOBA ALONG A DEEPENING UPPER LOW. THIS UPPER LOW
WILL QUICKLY MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION ON THURSDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS
/AROUND 80 KTS AT H5/ AND WITH AROUND 24 HOURS OF COLD /850MB TEMPS
AS COLD AS -20 C/ NORTHWEST FLOW AT LOW LEVELS THERE MAY BE SOME
MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. SKIES
WILL BE OVERCAST MOST OF THE TIME...WITH SOME CLEARING ON THURSDAY
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2.

FRIDAY/SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WARMING UP AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST THROUGH
THE MIDWEST LATE THURS/EARLY FRI RESULTING IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AT
MID/LOW LEVELS FRI/SAT. 850 MB TEMPS RISE AS WARM AS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
SURFACE TEMPS WILL WARM UP TO NEAR FREEZING FRI/SAT AND LIKELY ABOVE
FREEZING INTO THE MID/UPPER 30S ON SUNDAY...WHICH IS NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. OVER THE WEEKEND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVE NORTH UP
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. MODEL
GUIDANCE STILL VARIES WIDELY IN PLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW...AND IF
IT TRENDS WESTWARD AS THE ECMWF IS HINTING THEN SUNDAY MAY BE COOLER
AND CLOUDIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED
WITH RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST MON NOV 17 2014

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
EVENING WITH POCKETS OF CLEAR SKIES AS WELL. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUED TO FALL IN SPOTS AND WE EXPECT THAT TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE VFR
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

INCREASING WAA WILL CAUSE LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP TUESDAY
EVENING/NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS DROPPING BACK INTO MVFR/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   2  17   6  20 /  30   0  40  20
INL   0  18   7  19 /  50  20  40  40
BRD   0  16   7  18 /  20   0  40  10
HYR   2  16   3  20 /  70  10  60  30
ASX   7  19   7  23 /  80  30  40  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-144>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...MELDE






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