Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 152200
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
400 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 359 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

At 345 PM, skies were sunny across the Northland. Temperatures
ranged from the mid 20s to the lower 30s. There were a few
locations that even reached the mid 30s.

The main focus for tonight through Monday will be temperatures and
cloud trends. The well advertised low pressure system that will
move into the Great Lakes during the week, has trended well to the
south and east over the past several model runs. As a result, we
are again looking at another mild day on Monday, with some
increase in clouds, and temperatures once again in the upper 20s
to 30s. The main question overnight is whether we will see some
fog and stratus. Some of the models hint at this during the latter
part of the night, but will hold off on bringing any appreciate
low clouds/fog into the forecast overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 359 PM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Main concern in the extended is the low moving into the Upper
Midwest from the Central Plains Monday evening through Tuesday.
Guidance continues to trend pushing the main low well southeast of
the region with the closest pass over southern WI. As a result,
expect the highest precipitation chances across far southeastern
locations in NW WI. Still expecting a wintry mix of snow, freezing
rain, sleet and rain. All guidance is in good agreement with the
progression of the system with a cut off low lifting northeastward
from the Central Plains on Monday into the Upper Midwest by Monday
evening. Brought precipitation chances, snow and ice accumulation
totals down from the previous forecast to reflect the latest
guidance. Leaned toward a blend of the NAM/ECMWF/CMC, as the latest
GFS may be a bit too far southeast and too fast.

Mid to late in the week high pressure will build over the region
from the southeast with good agreement between the GFS/ECMWF and
CMC. The the ridge will remain southeast of the region. This will
bring southwesterly warm air advection with 850 hPa temperatures
ranging from 5 to 12 degrees Celsius. Will see highs in the 30`s for
much of the week with lows in the 20`s. Friday through Sunday
readings are expected to be in the upper 30`s and lower 40`s.
However, the high temperatures this far out will be dependent on how
much stratus develops late in the week a snow is melting. Unsure how
widespread this phenomena will be at this point, but suspect current
temperatures are too high. The next precipitation chances are for
Friday through Sunday as a trough lifts northeastward across the
Central Plains into the Upper Midwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1150 AM CST Sun Jan 15 2017

Generally expecting VFR conditions through the forecast. High
pressure will remain southeast of the region, while a trough axis
swings through Ontario. This will bring low level wind shear to
KHIB/KINL. Further south the threat is more marginal per the
latest GFS/NAM/RAP. Expect the wind shear threat to diminish this
evening as the trough moves into Quebec.

Late tonight into early Monday, there still appears to be a threat
of low level stratus developing around 500-1000 feet per the
GFS/NAM/DLHWRF and RAP. Leaned more heavily on the GFS for the
timing of the stratus development. Kept in as a scattered layer as
uncertain how widespread the development will be. Also held off on
low visibilities.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  29  15  30 /   0   0  10  10
INL   7  27   4  29 /   0   0   0   0
BRD   8  29  11  31 /   0   0  10   0
HYR   7  33  18  34 /   0  10  20  10
ASX  12  34  18  34 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CST this evening for LSZ142-143-
     146-147.

     Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CST Monday for LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...WL
AVIATION...WL


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