Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 012349
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF



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