Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 251659
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1159 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

UPDATED GRIDS FOR DECREASING CLOUDS TREND. ALSO RAISED TEMPS A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR THE CLOUD FREE AREAS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 916 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

UPDATRED TO SLOW DOWN THE LINE OF CLOUDS IN EASTERN PART OF MN. IT
HAS SLOWED DOWN THIS MORNING SO BACKED OFF THE CLEARING 2-3 HOURS.
ALSO...ADJUSTED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES IN AREAS THAT ARE REMAINING
CLOUDY LONGER.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE SURFACE LOW OF THE PAST COUPLE DAYS IS NOW OVER NORTHEAST
ONTARIO...WITH A CUT OFF UPPER LOW STACKED OVER IT.  THIS LOW IS
CONTINUING TO SPREAD STRATUS OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.  THIS LOW SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY MOVE NORTHEAST...AS IT SLOWLY OPENS UP FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND AND MOVES OFF A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY AFTERWARDS.  AS THIS SYSTEM
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST...A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST TO BRING A PERIOD OF QUIETER AND DRIER WEATHER.  CLOUDS
SHOULD LINGER OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...BUT GRADUALLY AND SLOWLY CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY
AND TONIGHT.  THIS WILL KEEP COOL TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT ALLOW THE
WESTERN COUNTIES TO WARM BACK INTO THE 60S.  TONIGHT AREAS WHERE THE
SKY CLEARS OUT AND THE WIND DROPS OFF WE CAN EXPECT LOW 40S.  IT
WILL BE WARMER WEDNESDAY AS THE SUNSHINE RETURNS TO MOST OF THE AREA
AND WARMER TEMPERATURES MOVE IN ALOFT AND HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WAVE OVER THE
WYOMING AREA OF THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL EJECT INTO THE
PLAINS THURSDAY AND MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WHILE IT APPEARS MOST OF THE ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THIS WAVE
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...MORE LIKE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN...PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND COULD GET
AFFECTED BY SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE WARM AND
MORE HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT...AND THERE COULD BE ENOUGH HEATING AND INSTABILITY TO RESULT
IN SHOWERS AND STORMS.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REDEVELOP ON SATURDAY...BRINGING A WARMING
TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE MIDDLE 70S...BUT WILL BUILD TO NEAR 80 DEGREES BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT TUE AUG 25 2015

AS OF EARLY THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NE
ONTARIO WAS CONTINUING TO BRING COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
HAD BKN/OVC MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 1500 TO 2000 FT DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER IN THE COOL FLOW. AREAS TO THE WEST...CLOSER TO HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE PLAINS...HAD CLEAR SKIES...INCLUDING KBRD.

THERE WILL BE LIFTING AND THEN SCATTERING OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
BACK TO VFR BY SOMETIME EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES WILL
DEVELOP BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BECOME NEGLIGIBLE
AFTER DUSK THIS EVENING. THE CLEAR SKIES AND VERY LIGHT WINDS
SPEEDS WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT...AND COULD
RESULT IN FOG LATE TONIGHT. CONFIDENCE IN THE FOG FOR ANY ONE
TERMINAL IS FAIRLY LOW...BUT IT IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR KHYR TO
INCLUDE MVFR VISIBILITY FOR LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  46  72  51 /   0   0   0   0
INL  64  40  73  48 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  69  45  74  52 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  63  43  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  63  47  70  46 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI


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