Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 120147
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
747 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 747 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

MUCH OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK FOR TONIGHT. DID MAKE A CHANGE TO
THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH. DELAYED THEIR ONSET
TO AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A SW WIND ATTM WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO W
THEN FINALLY NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON..THERE IS VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST REASONING..CONFIDENCE OR THE OVERALL THEME OF
MESSAGE: IT WILL BE VERY COLD AND INCREASINGLY WINDY FROM LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE
COLDEST MORNING OF THE WINTER SEASON FOR MANY LOCATIONS.

REINFORCING SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD BEGINNING
TONIGHT..WITH ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDING SOUTHWARD FROM
MANITOBA TONIGHT TO MINNESOTA BY SAT MORNING. TEMPS IN MOST
LOCALES SHOULD DROP INTO THE TEENS/20S BELOW BY FRI MORNING ALONG
WITH INCREASINGLY STRONG AND GUSTY NW WINDS AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES. THE GUSTIEST PERIOD IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY IN COINCIDENCE WITH THE STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES. WE HAVE
HOISTED ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADV FOR -25 TO -35 WIND CHILLS FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THRU NOON FRIDAY FOR MOST OF THE MINNESOTA
PORTION OF OUR CWA.

WIND WILL TURN MORE NORTHERLY IN THE SFC-5KFT AGL LAYER
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT..WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR LK EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
TO REDEVELOP OVER THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA/GOGEBIC RANGE.
HOWEVER..ANY ACCUMS SHOULD REMAIN 2-3 INCHES AT MOST OR LESS DUE
TO THE LIMITING FACTORS OF WEAK SYNOPTIC SUPPORT..A DRY UPSTREAM
BOUNDARY LAYER AND TRAJECTORIES THAT ARE STILL WEST OF DUE NORTH.
HOWEVER..IF WINDS TURN MORE NORTHERLY THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST..THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVIER SNOWS WILL SHIFT A TAD WEST INTO IRON COUNTY
PORTIONS OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE..AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SETTLES NEARLY OVERHEAD FRI
NIGHT/SAT..CLEAR SKIES/LIGHT WINDS/LONG NIGHT AND DEEP SNOW PACK
COMBINED WITH HOW COLD IT HAS ALREADY BEEN FOR SEVERAL DAYS SHOULD
RESULT IN MANY AREAS WELL INTO THE -30S ACROSS INTERIOR NRN
MINNESOTA SAT MORNING. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH WINDS CAN DIMINISH..A
FEW OF THE TRADITIONAL COLD SPOTS /EMBARRASS, COTTON, CRANE LAKE,
TOWER, BRIMSON, ETC/ COULD MAKE A RUN AT -40F. IT SEEMS LIKELY
THAT ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY OR WARNING WILL BE NECESSARY FRI
NIGHT/SAT MORNING FOR MANY AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

SFC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA 00Z SUNDAY WITH A SFC LOW LOCATED IN S SASKATCHEWAN AND A WARM
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO NEBRASKA.
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT WILL ALLOW ANOTHER SUBZERO MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND BEFORE THE 500MB COLD CORE IN THE SOUTHERN
HUDSON LOSES ITS INFLUENCE AND SWINGS EAST. HOWEVER CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM W TO E THROUGH THE MORNING... SO
MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL COOLING MAY BE CHALLENGED DEPENDING ON THE
TIMING OF THE APPROACHING CLIPPER AND TEMPS MAY END UP WARMER THAN
CURRENTLY FCST. HOWEVER WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL
WHICH WILL KEEP WIND CHILLS FRIGID IN THE -20 TO -30F RANGE.
ANOTHER WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR SUNDAY MORNING.

THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT INTO THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGHOUT THE DAY
ALLOWING THE CLIPPER TO DIVE SE AND REACH MINNESOTA BY MORNING. WITH
RATHER WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING... THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT
APPROACHES THE NORTHLAND BUT MIDLEVEL WAA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP THE FEATURE TOGETHER AND ALLOW A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPS WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO KEEP P-TYPE ISSUES AT BAY.
GENERALLY EXPECTING 1-3 INCHES WITH SNOW CHANCES LASTING INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. LAKE ENHANCEMENT AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE OF THE MN ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
ACROSS OPEN WATERS OF LK SUPERIOR.

IN THE EXTENDED MONDAY AND BEYOND... WE ARE LOOKING AT A SIGNIFICANT
WARM UP INTO ABOVE CLIMO TEMPS AS THE JET STREAM BECOMES A BIT FLAT
RATHER STABLE. EXPECTING HIGHS INTO 20S AND APPROACHING THE 30S BY
LATE NEXT WEEK. CURRENT GUIDANCE HAS US MOSTLY AVOIDING SUBZERO MIN
TEMPS AS WELL. THERE WILL BE SEVERAL SMALL DISTURBANCES DIVING OUT
OF CANADA THAT MAY IMPACT THE NORTHLAND WITH LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE
WEEK BUT NO SIGNIFICANT STORMS ARE IN THE CRYSTAL BALL AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 537 PM CST THU FEB 11 2016

VFR EXPECTED AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION IS AT INL WHERE A BRIEF BATCH OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE IN
THE VCNTY THROUGH THE EVENING. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -7  -1 -21   4 /  10   0   0   0
INL -17  -6 -29   3 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  -6   2 -22   7 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  -4   1 -22   6 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  -3   1 -10   6 /  10  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST FRIDAY FOR
     MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-035-037.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...GSF


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