Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 312033
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
333 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE ONCE AGAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
COLD AIR AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF FROST TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING.

A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MN ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 8 AM.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A DRY UPPER S/W IS CURRENTLY MOVING EWD INTO
THE WRN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO REGION THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A BATCH
OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THE COLD AIR IS ALSO LINGERING OVER THE
REGION AND WILL BE ENHANCED TONIGHT AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BEHIND THE DEPARTING S/W COMBINES WITH THE SFC HIGH...CLEAR
SKIES AND CALM WINDS TO ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 30S
OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND. SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEEN AROUND THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE AREA. THE LIMITING
FACTOR COULD BE CLOUD COVER THAT COULD HANG OUT TO THE SOUTH AND
LIMIT THE AMT OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD A MOSTLY CLEAR FORECAST TONIGHT.

THE DRY AIR AND AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSIST TOMORROW AND KEEP
CONDITIONS QUIET. THE MESO HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ALSO REMAIN
IN PLACE TOMORROW AND ALLOW A NE WIND TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AND
USHER IN A COOL MARINE LAYER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. WILL LIKELY
NOT PUSH AS FAR INLAND AS TODAY BUT WILL STILL KEEP MUCH OF THE
TWIN PORTS IN THE 40S AND 50S. OTHER AREAS INLAND WILL WARM INTO
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

THE WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE A BIT ON THE UNSETTLED SIDE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY PLANTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES GRADUALLY LOSES ITS
GRIP ON THE NORTHLAND WEATHER. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY
WEATHER FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND PROBABLY FOR ALL DAY TUESDAY AS WELL.
HAVE MAINTAINED A SMALL POP IN THE FAR WEST ON TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP ANY QPF WEST OF OUR
CWA THROUGH THAT TIME. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE BY MIDWEEK...WITH A FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AND AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SLIDES ACROSS MN/WI. THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD...AND AS A RESULT WE
SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THE GFS...GEM AND ECMWF ALL INDICATE A
SIMILAR DRY HIGH WILL PUSH INTO THE GREAT LAKES AGAIN BY FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY...BRINGING A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOWARD THE WEEKEND. HIGHS THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED TIME
PERIOD WILL MOST OFTEN BE IN THE 70S...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
SEVERAL OCCASIONS WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR DUE TO EASTERLY WINDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE REINFORCES ITSELF FROM THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  59  43  69 /   0   0   0  10
INL  37  68  47  75 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  40  66  50  72 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  35  66  42  74 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  34  61  40  72 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     MNZ011-012-019>021.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM CDT MONDAY FOR
     WIZ001>004-008-009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     143>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP






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