Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 252349
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
649 PM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

An area of low pressure was located in southeast North Dakota this
afternoon with a frontal boundary extending east southeast through
Minnesota into southern Wisconsin. The Northland was in a cooler
easterly flow north of the boundary with stronger winds occurring
around Lake Superior. A shortwave was combining with the front to
produce showers and storms across southern and western portions of
the area and we expect the showers/storms to continue to move north
and east tonight. For the most part, the instability has been
limited but there has been an increase over parts of our southern
zones. Although the risk for widespread severe storms is low, a
severe storm or two can not be ruled out into this evening over
mainly southern areas of the Northland, roughly south of highway
2. We also expect fog to increase in coverage around Lake Superior
tonight as a moist easterly flow continues.

We expect a decrease in precipitation over southern areas later this
evening, but a second wave should cause more to develop later
tonight.

On Thursday, the warm front will move east and north and extend from
northeast North Dakota southeast into northwest Wisconsin Thursday
afternoon then it will continue to push northeast. Showers and
storms will be possible along and north of the boundary despite the
fact weak shortwave ridging will develop Thursday afternoon. Some
strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday, especially over
northwest Wisconsin which should see the the greatest CAPE and
shear.

Highs Thursday will range from the lower seventies to lower
eighties, but be cooler around Lake Superior as we expect the
easterly flow to continue.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Concern for long term is chances for precipitation through most
of the long term

The active pattern will continue through most of the long term as
moisture continues to stream into the forecast area.  Along with
shortwaves moving through the region...there will be a possibility
of showers and thunderstorms everyday after a break Thursday night.
A series of stronger shortwaves will affect the forecast area Friday
afternoon through Saturday night.  Showers and thunderstorms will be
likely during that time period.  rainfall amounts will be 0.25 to
0.75 inches with the heaviest amounts south of highway 2 in MN and
most of nw WI.  The rain/thunderstorms will decrease on Sunday to a
more scattered nature.  The threat for precipitation will continue
through Monday morning.  There may be a break Monday night and
Tuesday when another shortwave move through the region and will
cause another possibility of showers and thunderstorms to develop.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 641 PM CDT Wed May 25 2016

Convective trends the main concern with this taf issuance, and
confidence past the next 6 hours is low. Band of rain with
embedded thunder has moved past all but KHYR...where IFR
conditions should continue for another hour or so as the band
slowly moves east. KDLH is also IFR with northeast flow off Lake
Superior is bringing in stratus and -RA. The rain should end...but
expect lifr conditions to return as the marine layer gets
reinforced by diurnal effects and as the rain moves out. Expect
vfr conditions at all other terminals until later tonight when fog
and stratus should develop in wake of the rainfall. Fog should
gradally clear between 15z and 18z. Additional convection is
expected after 18z but timing and placement low confidence and
have left out for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  68  52  69 /  90  40  30  50
INL  54  75  51  76 /  70  60  30  40
BRD  54  78  55  76 /  40  20  30  60
HYR  54  81  56  74 /  90  30  40  60
ASX  47  70  53  71 /  90  40  30  60

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ121-141>148.

     Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT Thursday for LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melde
LONG TERM...Stewart
AVIATION...LE



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