Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 292027
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AT 315 PM...AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
MANITOBA AND FAR NW ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NORTHLAND HAD NE FLOW....ABOUT 5 TO 10
MPH...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT FOR CLOUDIER SKIES OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WELL INLAND. DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL CONTINUE THE COOL WEATHER
PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL
PROVIDE A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT FROST SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH AS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT WILL PROVIDE SOME REGIONAL LIFT TO HELP
DEVELOP CUMULUS CLOUDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY ENE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
NAM12 AND GFS20 SOUNDINGS INDICATING WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN
THE MIXING LAYER. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. LEANED ON THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE WEIGHTING SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN SO
SIMILAR FOR THE MOST RECENT DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LONG TERM CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND SS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN DRY AIR INTO THE AREA KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 27-37 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE OF WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30
WHICH WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE
IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. IT ALSO WILL BE
WINDY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH READINGS OF 15-25 MPH POSSIBLE.

ANTHER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO WARM WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL RISE TO 10-20 MPH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  49  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
INL  31  58  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  37  58  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  34  57  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  32  48  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART



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