Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 290528 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO...CRUISING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. CANADIAN
RADAR IS SHOWING SCT SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS AS FAR WEST AS RED LAKE
ONTARIO (CYRL)...OR ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF KINL. HAVE SPREAD
POPS WEST ALONG THE BORDERLAND THIS EVENING AS THIS WAVE BECOMES
THE FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WISCONSIN.
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER AS LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
AT KELO/KHYR SHOW GENERALLY 500-900 J/KG OF CAPE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY...WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CHC FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DLH
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL REMAIN THERE FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE FA UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE FA AS THEY ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH ONE BATCH EXITING THE WI ZONES EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WINS OUT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT BATCH OF STORMS COMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LONGER WAVE
TROF PASSES OVER THE FA. LINGERED SOME POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE NW WI FA. SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE INROADS TO THE FA AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN BE A BREAK
IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN LINGER
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT
SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  56  77 /   0  10  10  30
INL  50  78  52  78 /   0  10   0  20
BRD  56  79  57  80 /   0  10   0  20
HYR  52  77  53  78 /  10  10  10  30
ASX  50  75  53  75 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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