Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 232022
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN CLOUD COVERAGE/FOG TONIGHT IN NW WI.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS IS
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MOVING EAST. BASED ON THE SREF/DLHWRF...
THIS EDGE SHOULD CLEAR NW WI BY 06Z. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG IN NW WI. WITH THE MOISTURE LEFTOVER
FROM THE EARLIER RAINS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG
FORMATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD SO WILL PUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FROM 06Z-15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN NW WI COUNTIES. FOR
FRIDAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FA FROM THE W ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE E AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER A
RETURN FLOW/WAA PATTERN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF AND HAVE NO POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS STRONG SFC LOW/CYCLOGENESIS PRACTICALLY
ON TOP OF THE FA. GEM/ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THERE MASS FIELDS.
USED A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND...LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR POPS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO WARRANT ADDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IFR CIGS/VSBY AT HYR UNTIL 22Z THEN VFR. BRING THE BR AND
MVFR/ISOLD IFR VSBYS TO HYR FROM 03Z TO 15Z. IFR CIG AT DLH UNTIL
20Z THEN VFR. BROUGHT SOME BR TO DLH WITH MVFR VSBY FROM 06Z TO
14Z. VFR ELSEWHERE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  67  46  57 /   0   0   0   0
INL  42  69  42  54 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  68  44  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  43  66  45  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  44  68  46  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF







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