Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KDLH 190525
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1225 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE WAS WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AND KHYR
AREAS HAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE NORTHLAND HAD SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP THE LLWS UNTIL
DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  68  49  63 /  30  50  10  20
INL  54  65  47  61 /  60  60  70  10
BRD  58  71  49  67 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  61  71  49  64 /  30  40  10  20
ASX  60  69  50  60 /  30  50  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MCLOVIN







USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.