Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 051759 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED FOR NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FORECAST AREA AT 08Z WITH A
LIGHT WIND AND A MAINLY CLEAR SKY. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE CLOUDS ARE FORMING ALONG THE LAND
INTERFACE AND THEN MOVING OUT OVER THE LAKE. THIS WAS OCCURRING
ROUGHLY FROM PORT WING WI TO THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. EVENTUALLY THE
DRIER AIR WILL OVERCOME THE CLOUDS AND THEY WILL DISSIPATE AS THE
PROCESS TO FORM THESE CLOUDS ENDS. OTHERWISE...A SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE AS THE HIGH DROPS INTO ILLINOIS. MAX TEMPS WILL REACH THE
SINGLES DIGITS ABOVE ZERO OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD TO THE TEENS
ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA AS WAA IS UNDERWAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROF WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT.
BEFORE IT ARRIVES...CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF FLURRIES AFTER 09Z TO NE MN WHEN THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH ELEVATED...TO WRING THEM OUT. BEFORE THE CLOUDS
ARRIVE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN NW WI. SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO EXPECTED IN NE MN.

THE SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES OVER NW WI FRIDAY MORNING. HAVE KEPT THE
MENTION OF FLURRIES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE MORNING.
REMOVED THE SMALL POPS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS THE BEST
FORCING AND MOISTURE HAVE MOVED INTO NW WI. A DRY AFTERNOON IS
ANTICIPATED AS THE SHORT WAVE HAS MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. MADE ONLY
A MINOR CHANGE TO MAX TEMPS FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 253 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME
OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL BE SEVERAL SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THEN THE FLOW BECOMES
MORE ZONAL. TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

WE HAVE A MENTION OF LIGHT SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT FOR THE NORTHLAND AS AN
AREA OF WAA AND A SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND WE JUST HAVE CHANCE POPS. ANY
ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE LIGHT.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A CHANCE FOR MORE LIGHT SNOW. AGAIN...ANY ACCUMULATION WILL BE
LIGHT.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE DRY WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL BRUSH BY FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...WITH MUCH OF THE LIFT REMAINING NORTH OF THE BORDER.

HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER TWENTIES TO MID THIRTIES...THEN
WARM INTO THE FORTIES BY TUESDAY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA RESULTED IN CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING. SCATTERED CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AS DAYTIME
HEATING ALLOWS THE LOWEST FEW THOUSAND FEET TO MIX...BUT VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TO THIS EVENING AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NON-
CONVECTIVE LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR. AN TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST WILL WORK TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
AREA...AND RESULT IN A LAYER OF STRONG WINDS NEAR-ALOFT. MAXIMUM
WIND SPEEDS OF 40-45 KTS ARE LIKELY...CENTERED AROUND 2 KFT AGL.
LATER OVERNIGHT...INCREASING MOISTURE AND WEAK LIFT WILL RESULT IN
SCT/BKN CLOUD DECK. MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED FOR A TIME AT INL AND
HYR...ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES. MVFR
CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT BRD AS WELL...BUT LIGHT SNOW IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF
VERY LIGHT SNOW AT DLH AND HIB...BUT THE DURATION AND UNCERTAIN
TIMING PRECLUDE INCLUSION AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13   4  32  19 /   0   0   0  40
INL  15   5  29  14 /   0   0  10  40
BRD  15   5  34  20 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  12   0  32  21 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  15   6  33  23 /   0   0   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...HUYCK







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