000
FXUS63 KDLH 161752 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS...AND ISOLATED MVFR CIGS IN A FEW OF THE
STRONGER CELLS. CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT BEFORE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

UPDATE...UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS FOR AREA OF PRECIP MOVING
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS. HAVE EXTENDED POPS INTO NW WI AS
PRECIP AREA COULD MOVE INTO THAT REGION.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 921 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD POPS TO MOST OF NE MN WITH SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO FORECAST
AREA AROUND LAKE WINNIE. THIS PRECIPITATION IS RESPONSE TO A SMALL
AREA OF PV IN THE FLOW. IT SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
MORNING BEFORE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS NORTH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 654 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

UPDATE...
UPDATED TO CANCEL FOG ADVISORY AS VSBYS HAVE GREATLY IMPROVED.
FAILED TO MENTION THAT WINDS TODAY...IT WILL BECOME BREEZY. THERE
ARE SOME VERY STIFF WINDS NOT FAR OFF THE SFC THAT WILL LIKELY MIX
DOWN TODAY. INL 00Z SOUNDING HAS 25 TO 30 KT WINDS UP TO 8000

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 432 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013/

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE THE S/WV SEEN ON WATER VAPOR LOOP OVR
SRN MANITOBA WITH LOBE ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER. AS THIS SYSTEM
SWINGS SOUTH EST ACROSS THE FA TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL HELP
SET OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...WITH VERY DRY AIR MASS AT
LOWER LEVELS...QPF WILL BE LIGHT AT FIRST UNTIL MOISTURE ADVECTION
LATER IN FIRST PERIOD HELPS MOISTEN THE LOW LEVELS . IN
ADDITION...A GOOD PUSH OF WAA WILL TAKE PLACE AHEAD OF THE SFC
FRONT...AIDING IN MORE UVV...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN NRN MINNESOTA LATER THIS
MORNING...THEN DEVELOP SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE THE CWA THIS
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER...THEY MAY HOLD OFF IN THE HYR TO PBH AREAS
TIL NEAR OR AFTER 6 PM. THERE WILL BE FAIRLY STRONG FGEN EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON IN THE ARROWHEAD ALONG THE LOW LVL TEMP
GRADIENT...THEN ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONTAL SYSTEM. BY
00Z THIS AREA WILL BE SOMEWHERE ALONG THE IRON RANGE OF MINNESOTA
AND BY 03Z FRONT THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA THRU DLH AND IN NRN
WISCONSIN. FEEL THIS MAY BE THE AREA WHERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONCENTRATED. THIS AREA WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF
MUCAPES OVER 2K J/KG JUST AT PEAK DIURNAL HEATING AND LI`S ABOUT
-5.

FOR THE MOST PART MODELS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN THIS SYSTEM UNTIL
MONDAY...WHEN THE DIFFERENCES DO SHOW UP IN RESULTANT PRECIPITATION
WITH LAGGING SFC TROF. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH POPS IN THE
FORECAST. WILL BE QUITE CLOUDIER AND COOL NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR...WHERE OFF-LAKE WINDS WILL PREVAIL NORTH OF SFC
BOUNDARY.

HAS BEEN DENSE FOG IN AREAS OR NRN WI THAT HAD RAIN LAST
EVENING...FROM KHYR TO KPBH. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO RAPIDLY IMPROVE
AFTER SUNRISE...SO WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY GOING.

LONG TERM...
EXTENDED...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
A NWRLY MID LVL FLOW WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE REGION KEEPS
FCST DRY MON NIGHT. VERY CHILLY MORNING POSSIBLE TUESDAY AS SFC HIGH
RESIDES OVER REGION WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOCATIONS OVER ERN WISC ZONES
MAY SEE SOME UPPER 30S. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BDRY WILL APPROACH THE
NWRN CWA TUESDAY NIGHT WITH AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC LIFT EXPECTED.
FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN BDRY LYR SO SUSPECT THAT
LITTLE IF ANY SFC CONVERGENCE WILL BE AVAILABLE. HAVE A SLIGHT CHC
POPS NWRN CORNER TUES NIGHT BUT THAT MAY BE OVERDONE. FRONTAL BDRY
STALLS NORTH OF BORDER WEDNESDAY AS IT ENCOUNTERS SFC HIGH OVER CWA.
HOWEVER...THE FCST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS OVER MOST OF
THE CWA INDICATE A CHC/SLIGHT CHC POPS WITH DIURNAL HEATING. MOST
FAVORED AREA MAY BE ALONG INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS 85/70H MSTR
TRANSPORT AXIS SLIDES EASTWARD. OVERALL SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN FROM
MIDWEEK TO FRIDAY FEATURES A WARM ADVECTION REGIME IN LOW LAYERS
WITH LIGHT WNW FLOW ALOFT. SFC BDRY MAY SLIDE SOUTH INTO NRN MN
ZONES THURSDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY. THIS PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY
FOR ENOUGH CONVERGENCE AND INSTABILITY TO KEEP POPS THROUGH THE WEEK
AS PWATS INCREASE ABOVE CLIMO. ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO BE
SPECIFIC ABOUT EXACT LOCATION..THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THUR/FRIDAY CONSIDERING THE FCST DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY. TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO THIS PERIOD.

AVIATION...06Z TAF ISSUANCE.
VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE MN AREAS THROUGH TAF PERIOD.
AREAS OF FOG/BR WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH PERIODS
OF DENSE FOG AND LIFR CIGS AT KHYR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.
ISOLD SHOWERS WILL TRACK ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...POSSIBLY AFFECTING THE KINL AND KHIB TAF SITES. LATEST
MODELS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST A BREAK IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY
MORNING...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND REDEVELOPMENT OF SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  61  43  70 /  40  40   0  10
INL  50  71  43  74 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  72  47  73 /  30  30  10  10
HYR  54  72  41  74 /  40  40   0  10
ASX  49  67  40  70 /  40  30   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...TENTINGER