Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 311745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  50  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  50  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  40  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  50  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  30  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





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