Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 292008
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NW ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
40 MPH. THERE COULD BE STRAY GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN NE MINNESOTA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAD BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE COOL AND RELATIVELY HUMID WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE
NAM12/GEMREG/SREF/WRF. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND AND ARROWHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE OVERNIGHT CLEARING...LEANED ON
THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE SINCE THE OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES.

THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY. THE DAY
SHOULD BE WARMER AND SUNNIER. THE NAM12/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD 20 TO 25 MPH WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON THE WINDS IN THE MIXING
LAYERS IN THE SOUNDINGS. THE NAM12/GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO POP SCATTERED
CUMULUS BY THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS...INCLUDING THE
NAM12/GEMREG/GFS/WRF/SREF MODELS. THIS IS MOSTLY FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 13 IN NW
WISCONSIN. THE NAM12/SREF ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...SO THERE COULD BE A
STRAY STRONGER CELL. THE MORE PROMINENT SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
END UP PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...POTENTIALLY UP TO 40 MPH. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THIS FLOW...PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH THESE PIECES OF ENERGY...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE REGION AND HAVE POPS
ALIGNED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IMPULSES. BETWEEN THESE SHORT
WAVES...PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH NW ONTARIO AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AND WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY. HAVE VCSH MENTIONS AT INL AND HIB AS THE RAIN HAS BEEN
FALLING PERIODICALLY AT INL AND MAY CLIP HIB. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION BEING INL WHICH WILL BE IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM AND SEE THE GUSTY
WINDS UNTIL 06Z. VFR IS FORECAST FOR BRD/DLH/HYR. MVFR AT
HIB/INL UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VFR. LOOK FOR GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN AFTER 12Z AT ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  80  60  78 /   0  10  10   0
INL  56  78  53  76 /  40  30  10  20
BRD  60  83  59  80 /   0   0  10   0
HYR  59  80  56  77 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  61  80  59  78 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF



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