Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 272317
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
617 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS FOR SHORT IS RAIN TONIGHT AND PTYPE TUE
AFTERNOON ACROSS NRN MN.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS NE MN
AND PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS NW WI. THERE ARE RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
CLOUDS SHOULD FILL IN THIS EVENING ACROSS NW WI AND THE RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO END BY THIS EVENING IN THE WEST.

TWO AREA OF LOW PRESSURES HAS COMBINED INTO A LARGE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE CENTER. THE AREA OF SHOWERS OCCURRING NOW IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL BEING DRAGGED ROSS THE REGION. THE CENTER OF THE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MN TONIGHT SPREADING IN PRECIPITATION
FROM THE WEST. AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN MN WILL SEE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS WITH CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE INTO NRN MN TOMORROW ALONG WITH COLDER AIR
WHICH WILL TURN THE PRECIPITATION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE AND THE INLAND AREAS OF THE ARROWHEAD. THERE ILL BE
ABOUT AN INCH OF WET SNOW ACCUMULATION BY LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.LONG TERM...

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A COLD CORE LOW WILL BE ROTATING EWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUE
NIGHT AND WED MORNING WITH A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED DURING THIS TIME SO
RAIN AND/OR SNOW AMTS WILL BE LIGHT. COULD SEE A TENTH OR TWO OF
SNOW POSSIBLE ON GRASSY SURFACES. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
LATE WED AND SLIDE TO THE EAST QUICKLY WED NIGHT/THUR MORNING IN
ADVANCE OF THE NEXT S/W EXPECTED TO DROP IN FROM THE NW DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD UPPER TROUGH WILL ROTATE SEWD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AS A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE
BUILDS IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE DAY. A FAVORABLE NRLY
FLOW ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT
POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE INTO FRI AFTERNOON. ONLY LIGHT SNOW
AMTS ARE EXPECTED. THE DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN QUICKLY FROM THE
WEST INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AS THE WINDS SHIFT TO THE S/SW AND USHERS
IN A SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS.

TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL START OFF RATHER MILD WITH MORNING LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
A SLIGHT BUMP IN TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE FELT THUR INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND POSSIBLY LOWER 50S...BUT OVERNIGHT LOWS
DURING CLEAR NIGHTS INTO THE 20S AND LOWER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 617 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COVERED THE REGION EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT
IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH THE MAIN
LOW TRACKING NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z TUE.
THE LOW WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD JAMES BAY ON TUESDAY. AN
AREA OF RAIN EXTENDED FROM NEAR KORB SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
MINNESOTA AT 23Z. THIS IS FORECAST TO LIFT NORTH AND EAST...WITH MORE
RAIN OCCURRING OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD.
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MVFR
AND POSSIBLY SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE RAP
HAS BEEN SHOWING THIS FOR AWHILE NOW AND WE FOLLOWED ITS TREND
OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOVING SOUTH ON INCREASING W/NW WINDS
TONIGHT-TUESDAY. PRECIP TYPE SHOULD BE RAIN TONIGHT...WITH IT WILL
BECOME A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATER
TUESDAY. BASED ON THE LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS...WE DELAYED THE
MENTION OF SNOW UNTIL TUESDAY AFTERNOON FOR KINL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  45  37  42 /  50  50  40  10
INL  39  42  32  40 /  80  60  40  10
BRD  39  45  33  44 /  60  40  20   0
HYR  41  48  37  43 /  40  40  40  10
ASX  42  50  37  44 /  50  60  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TUESDAY TO 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY
     FOR LSZ121-144>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MELDE






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