Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 191623 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1123 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

CLOUD DECK THINNING MORE THAN EXPECTED ALLOWING PARTIALLY FILTERED
SUNSHINE TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO MN ZONES.PRECIP MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS COOK/LAKE COUNTIES. HAVE DROPPED WSY FROM SRN LAKE
AND NRN/CTRL ST LOUIS COUNTIES.





UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS IS SHIFTING EAST THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST
IS OCCURRING OVER ARROWHEAD IN AREA OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
INDICATED BY SPEC MESOANALYSIS. BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW AT LUTSEN
WITHIN PAST HR AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY ENE AS PER LATEST
88D TRENDS. WILL DROP WSY OVER TWIN PORTS AS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL
BE LIGHT AND MAIN RESULT SO FAR HAS BEEN ON DECKS...TREE LIMBS...AND
OTHER ELEVATED OBJECTS. ANY ADDITIONAL ICING WOULD BE MINIMAL.
ENDING PRECIP EARLIER OVER WRN CWA BASED ON LATEST ANIMATION OF
SAT IMAGERY AND OUTPUT FROM HI-RES NWP. WILL LET NRN ST LOUIS WSY
GO A LITTLE LONGER HOWEVER MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THAT EARLIER THAN
ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...AND A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...INCLUDING CARLTON...SAINT LOUIS...LAKE AND
COOK COUNTIES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW AND
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR
KOOCHICHING AND ITASCA COUNTIES DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL WARMING THAT
HAS OCCURRED OVER THIS AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP
BEING REDUCED.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND PRODUCE MODEST AMTS OF PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO ADVECT IN OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH QUITE
A BIT OF MIXING AS WELL. SFC TEMPS AROUND BRAINERD ARE ALREADY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NWD TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS
RAIN. THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE COLDER SFC AND BL TEMPS
WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE PRESENCE
OF THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MIXED PRECIP AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET/FZRA. THE PERIOD FOR
WINTRY MIX THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER WITH A ROBUST AMT OF LIQUID AVAILABLE...THE THREAT
FOR ICY ROADS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS REMAINS A CONCERN. COULD
POSSIBLY SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES...WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER ST. LOUIS AND
CARLTON COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE ICE ACCUM POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DULUTH...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR MASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR COULD MAKE A STRONG PUSH INLAND TO THE W/SW...ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND ADJUST THE THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE
THE PRECIP FROM RAIN TO FZRA OR SLEET. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
WINDS/TEMPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE CLOSELY THIS MORNING
FOR ANY RAPID CHANGES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING OVER NW WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. THE GUSTY SE
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME CALM UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCH FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING THE AREA WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5
ABOVE C...HI TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S NEARLY
EVERYWHERE...WITH 50S ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.  THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO FAIRLY DEEP MIXING BRINGING DOWN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH OUR DARK TREES TO HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE A LITTLE.  THIS IS ALSO AHEAD OF A FRESH
CLIPPER STYLE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR
MOISTURE... AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SLIGHT AND LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS THIS CLIPPER BRINGS IN SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS POPS ALONE...AND HAVE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS DUE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE AREA....BUT FOR NOW IT IS TOO SOON TO
PUT MUCH DETAIL INTO THE LOCATION OF THIS AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...WITH A
MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.  IT IS TOO SOON TO GET
INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR THIS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT
CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT COULD BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME MIXED IN SNOW AND EVEN FREEZING
RAIN IS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THE BAND HAS BROUGHT
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR CIGS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION AS THE RAIN BAND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN BAND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  36  60  37 /  80  10   0  10
INL  53  31  58  39 /  80   0   0  30
BRD  61  37  67  42 /  60   0   0  10
HYR  50  39  64  37 /  60  40  10  10
ASX  49  38  59  34 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-
     021.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE






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