Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 240043
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

AREA RADARS SHOW THE PRECIPITATION HAS DIMINISHED QUITE A BIT EARLY
THIS EVENING...AND WE EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE TONIGHT. WE DO
EXPECT SOME SNOW/DRIZZLE TO CONTINUE THOUGH AND AS TEMPERATURES
DROP...SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE. WE DROPPED THE ADVISORY FOR
PRICE/SAWYER COUNTIES AS LITTLE PRECIP WAS OCCURRING THERE. WE
LEFT THE HEADLINE AS IS FOR BAYFIELD/ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES WHERE
SOME TERRAIN/LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 30. SOME SLICK SPOTS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE WET ROADS REFREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN CENTERED AROUND THE
SNOW THAT CONTINUES TO ROTATE THROUGH NW WI AND PORTIONS OF NE
MN ON THE BACK SIDE OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TONIGHT
AND EARLY WED MORNING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTH CENTRAL WI
THROUGH 7 PM FOR SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES...AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR
BAYFIELD...ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES.

WILL SEE ADDITIONAL BANDS OF LIGHT SNOW MOVE IN FROM THE EAST LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...PRODUCING AN ADDITIONAL 1-2
INCHES. HAVE HAD REPORTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES SO FAR ACROSS NW WI TO THE
TWIN PORTS...WITH LESSER AMTS FURTHER WWD INTO NE MN. CHECK THE
LATEST PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT FOR A LISTING OF THE MOST
RECENT REPORTS.

THE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER ERN WI WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT TO THE
NE THROUGH ERN CANADA TONIGHT AS THE DEFORMATION ZONE AND
ASSOCIATED BAND OF SNOW WEAKEN AND SLOWLY SHIFT TO THE E/NE AS
WELL. DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW A SECONDARY WEAK S/W WILL MOVE
IN FROM THE NW AND RE-ENFORCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT PRECIP...BUT
MAINLY ACT TO KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH THE DAY. A HIGH
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM THE WEST DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT THE LARGE SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL KEEP
THE THREAT FOR LIGHT QPF...IN THE FORM OF DZ/FZDZ AROUND THROUGH
THE DAY.

THE DEEPER LAYER MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOW THE SNOW
TO END ACROSS THE REGION...AND CHANGE OVER TO EITHER A DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE AS TEMPERATURES FALL TO 29 TO 32 DEG F. WILL ALSO
HOLD ON THE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE
BL AND NEAR-SFC LAYER REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WHERE A
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT TO THE THERMAL PROFILES COULD TRIGGER SOME LAKE
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS FROM BAYFIELD TO IRON COUNTY THROUGH WED
MORNING. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THIS
AREA HAS PROMPTED KEEPING THE ADVISORY GOING UNTIL 6 AM WED. IF
CONDITIONS SET UP PROPERLY...LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS ARE NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE ON THE QUIET SIDE ACROSS THE
REGION...AS WE WILL BE TRANSITIONING FROM A MORE WESTERLY FLOW TO A
GRADUAL SOUTHWEST FLOW. AS WE MAKE THIS TRANSITION...WE WILL START
TO SEE A WEST TO EAST OR SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION...STRETCHING FROM THE COLORADO
ROCKIES...INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. HAVE INCREASED POPS AS THE
ECMWF...GEM AND GFS ARE ALL IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE CHANCE OF
LIGHT SNOW THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THINK WE COULD DEFINITELY SEE A
COUPLE INCHES...AND IN A NARROW BAND...CANNOT RULE OUT THE EVENTUAL
NEED FOR AN ADVISORY WITH THIS EVENT. A COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
THEN PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...WITH EVEN COLDER AIR SETTLING INTO THE NORTHLAND ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. GENERALLY LOOKING AT SMALLER CHANCES OF
LIGHT SNOW INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT TEMPS WILL BE
THE MAIN STORY FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. AFTER HIGHS IN THE 20S ON
SATURDAY...TEMPS SHOULD STRUGGLE TO REACH ZERO FOR DAYTIME HIGHS
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST TUE DEC 23 2014

LOW PRESSURE IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. AN AREA OF SNOW WITH SOME RAIN/DRIZZLE MIXED IN
WAS OCCURRING OVER FAR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA. THIS AREA OF PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE TO DIMINISH
TONIGHT...BUT LINGER LONGER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. SOME DRIZZLE AND AS TEMPERATURES DROP...FREEZING
DRIZZLE...WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS. MAINLY
IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WERE
SOME POCKETS OF HIGHER HIGH MVFR/LOW VFR CEILINGS OUT THERE EARLY
THIS EVENING...BUT THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  32  25  32 /  70  10  10  20
INL  29  31  24  31 /  20  20  20  10
BRD  30  32  24  32 /  40  10  10  20
HYR  32  33  25  33 /  50  30  10  10
ASX  33  34  27  34 /  70  40  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE





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