Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 110936
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
336 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

A passing clipper is bringing light snowfall to the forecast area
this morning with accumulations in the 0.5 to 2" range. Of note,
is a patch of freezing rain that will brush Cass and Crow Wing and
maybe Aitkin counties this morning on the tongue of an elevated
warm nose. Radar is probably bright banding a bit, and most hi-
rez guidance suggests just an hour or two of the potential, so
covered this hazard with an SPS. Further the fact that it is
falling on top of snow will also help to mitigate its impact. Snow
will linger over our eastern CWA enhanced by a lake contribution,
but elsewhere should taper off while skies work on clearing.

Wind gusts this afternoon will be fairly high with gusts in the
30-35 mph range as cold air advection helps mix down some higher
values aloft.

Tuesday should be fairly sunny, but cold with highs struggling to
break out of the single digits especially in the Arrowhead. The
next clipper system begins to approach Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 326 AM CST Mon Dec 11 2017

The Clipper train will continue for the Northland, with at least
a few more for the middle of the week through the weekend. These
Clippers will likely only bring light snow. The middle of the week
will be cold with highs primarily in the teens and lower 20s, but
milder weather is likely late this week into the weekend with
highs in the middle 20s to lower 30s.

An area of high pressure will move through the Northland Tuesday
afternoon and evening. Temperatures will plummet Tuesday night into
the single digits above and below zero because of the light wind
speeds and mostly clear skies in the evening. Warmer lows in the
teens are forecast for central and north-central Minnesota because
of expected increasing cloud cover from the west overnight.

The GFS, European, and Canadian indicate another Canadian Clipper
will dive south through the Northern Plains and/or western Great
Lakes region sometime Tuesday night through Wednesday. There are
still significant timing and track differences between the models.
While the track and timing is still in question, the Northland will
likely only get light coatings of snow for any of the scenarios. The
is also a low risk of freezing drizzle in the wake of the snow.
Another blast of cold northerly winds will come late Wednesday into
Thursday, which will help produce snow flurries into Thursday.

The GFS, European, and Canadian suggest another weak Clipper could
track from southern Canada into the Northern Plains and/or western
Great Lakes region late this week, sometime Friday into early
Saturday. This Clipper could bring additional light snow to the
Northland, it somewhat mild air will stick around after its passage.
Another Clipper is possible late this weekend, bringing another
round of light snow to the Northland.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2017

Light snow will overspread the terminals through the first few
hours of the forecast. This is in response to a powerful vorticity
maxima moving southeast through ND at the start of the forecast.
A mix of VFR and MVFR cigs initially, with MVFR/IFR cigs and
vsbys in the vicinity of band of moderate snow. The snow will end
from north to south after 12Z as the vort max and its associated
surface low move past the terminals. Gusty winds are expected
behind the surface low along with an improvement to VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25   0  14   6 /  90   0   0  20
INL  19  -4  11   5 /  10   0  10  30
BRD  30   6  21  15 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  29   2  13   3 /  60   0   0  10
ASX  29   7  14   5 /  90  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM CST Tuesday
     for LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Wolfe
LONG TERM...Grochocinski
AVIATION...GSF


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