Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 230309
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
909 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 908 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

00Z INL SOUNDING INDICATES THAT IT WILL BE AWHILE FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO GET GOING. ESPECIALLY SINCE SOME BRIEF UPPER
RIDGING IS MOVING OVER THE FA ATTM. SHORT WAVE IS OVER THE
NORTHERN MANITOBA LAKES SO FORCING IS A BIT AWAY. INL ASOS
REPORTED UP...IT ONLY LASTED FOR 3 MINUTES AND HAS ENDED. SFC
TEMPS NEAR INL ARE ALSO WARMING INTO THE LOWER 30S AND INL WILL BE
ABOVE 32F SHORTLY. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TIMING OF PRECIPITATION
AND BUMPED UP MIN TEMPS NEAR INL. LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
IN NW WI WHERE EARLIER CLEAR SKY HAD ALLOWED TEMPS TO DROP A
BIT...BUT ARE ALREADY WARMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 635 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

CURRENT RADAR RETURNS ARE JUST A REPRESENTATION OF CLOUD COVER
WITH NO PRECIPITATION REPORTED. HAVE DELAYED THE ONSET OF THE
PRECIPITATION BY A FEW HOURS. ONLY LOCATIONS WITH PRECIPITATION ARE
IN SOUTHWEST MANITOBA. THE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHERN RED RIVER
VALLEY HAS ERODED ATTM. WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR THE UPPER LEVEL WAVE
TO GET CLOSER FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON CENTER ON THE
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CANADIAN PRAIRIES TONIGHT TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. A NOSE OF WARM AIR WILL ADVANCE SOUTHEAST FROM MY
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AROUND SUNRISE.
ROBUST FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE NOSE OF THE WARM ADVECTION
WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF PRECIPITATION BEGINNING EARLY THIS
EVENING IN KOOCHICHING COUNTY AND SPREADING EAST AND SOUTH THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL FALL INTO THE WARMER AIR ALOFT
RESULTING IN FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET AT THE SURFACE...EXCEPT OVER
EASTERN LAKE AND MUCH OF COOK COUNTIES...WHERE THE COLUMN SHOULD
REMAIN COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW OR SLEET. ICE ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM A TRACE UP TO FIVE-HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH FROM
KOOCHICHING AND ITASCA COUNTIES SOUTHEAST TO THE TWIN PORTS...WITH
LIGHTER ICE ACCUMULATION FROM CASS LAKE INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. HAVE OPTED FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN
AND SLEET FROM KOOCHICHING AND ITASCA SOUTHEAST TO DOUGLAS AND
BAYFIELD, WI. SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION IN THE ARROWHEAD OF UP
TO ONE- HALF INCH IS LIKELY...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE THE GRAND
MARAIS AND GRAND PORTAGE AREAS COULD SEE AS MUCH AS AN INCH.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY WARM OVERNIGHT WITH MINS IN
THE UPPER 20S NORTHWEST TO THE LOW 20S SOUTHEAST.

THE DEEPEST SATURATION AND BEST LIFT MOVES INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN ON FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING A MIX OF DRIZZLE AND
FREEZING DRIZZLE BEHIND IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ICE ACCUMULATIONS
OF UP TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN DOUGLAS AND
BAYFIELD COUNTIES. BY MID TO LATE MORNING...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LEADING TO A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE FOR
ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION. TRENDED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH MAXES IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 30S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

A TRAILING SURFACE TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
PORTIONS OF NRN WI FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY...PRODUCING LIGHT SNOW AND POSSIBLY PATCHY FREEZING
DRIZZLE. ONLY LIGHT SNOW AMTS ARE EXPECTED WITH MINIMAL TO NO ICE
ACCUMULATION. THE NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES FROM THE NW ALONG A
STRENGTHENING BAROCLINIC ZONE WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM SRN MANITOBA
INTO NRN WISCONSIN SATURDAY NIGHT. A MID LEVEL LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH WILL DRAW DOWN A SUPPLY OF COLD AIR FROM NRN
CANADA AND ACT TO INCREASE THE 850-300MB INSTABILITY. THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE DYNAMICS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT OVER THE
REGION AS A BULLS-EYE OF Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE INTENSIFIES OVER NRN
MN SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING. THE ALIGNMENT OF THESE FEATURES
ALONG WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL F-GEN TO ENHANCE THE LIFT WITHIN THE
DGZ WILL PRODUCE A PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HAVE INCREASED THE POPS/QPF AND SNOW AMTS IN THE FORECAST...WITH A
SOLID 2 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE THROUGH SUN EVENING. LOCALLY HIGHER
AMTS GREATER THAN 4 INCHES ARE LIKELY. COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF DRY
PERIOD LATE SUN AND EARLY MONDAY BEFORE THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM
DROPS IN FROM THE NW LATE MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DOMINATE TUE AND WED WITH DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF MILD WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY IN THE LOWER
30S. A SHORT PERIOD OF COOLER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS. WILL SEE A RETURN TO THE RELATIVELY MILD
CONDITIONS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET FOR DLH/HIB/INL. MVFR AT BRD BUT A QUICK
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS POSSIBLE BY 02Z. HOWEVER...CLOUDS ARE
DEVELOPING IN THE VCNTY AND MAY REMAIN MVFR. VFR AT HYR...BUT MVFR
CIGS ARE JUST OFF TO THE WEST AND WILL AFFECT HYR BY 02Z. AFTER
04Z...EXPECT A MORE GENERAL MVFR CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL WAVE THAT WILL BRING SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN TO ALL
TERMINALS AS IT SPREADS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST.
APPEARS A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z BEFORE
A MIX OF SNOW/SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT ALL
SITES THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  35  28  33 /  60  60  20  20
INL  30  36  27  30 /  40  20  30  30
BRD  25  35  26  33 /  30  40   0  20
HYR  20  35  29  34 /  20  50  20  20
ASX  20  35  29  35 /  30  40  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ010>012-018-
     019-026.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR MNZ020-035-037.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY FOR WIZ001-002.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...HUYCK/MELDE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GSF





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