Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 030000
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
600 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

21Z WV SATELLITE AND MSL PRESSURE ANALYSIS REVEALS A BROADLY STACKED
BAROCLINIC CYCLONE CENTERED IN WESTERN KANSAS MOVING NE INTO
IOWA. AN IMPRESSIVE DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE PUNCHES NORTHWARD
INTO IOWA AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. THE CYCLONE DEEPENED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH MINIMUM SFC PRESSURE RECORDED AT 992MB AT 20Z... BUT
WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO FILL WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE 300MB
JET STREAK PIVOTS TO THE NE SIDE AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF
LIFTS NORTH. SNOW BEGAN MOVING INTO MINNESOTA FROM S TO N SEVERAL
HOURS AGO AND QUICKLY BROUGHT 3 INCHES OF SNOW TO ROCHESTER AND
EAU CLAIRE AND UP TO 6 FURTHER SOUTH IN ROCHESTER. THE SNOW HAS
ALREADY REACHED THE SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF OUR CWA AS VISIBLE BY THE
20-30 DBZ ECHOS ON KDLH RADAR... WITH FLURRIES ALREADY SIGHTED IN
DULUTH AND STEADY LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING IN HAYWARD AND ASHLAND.
BUMPED POPS UP NORTH AND WESTWARD AND SHIFTED THE TIMING A BIT
EARLIER ACCORDING TO RADAR AND HIGH-RES MODEL INDICATIONS.

WITH STRONG CAA OCCURRING TONIGHT ACROSS MN/ND ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE DEPARTING LOW... MAINTAINED THE THINKING OF THE EARLIER SHIFT
THAT THE NW EXTENT OF QPF/POPS SHOWN IN MOST OF OUR SYNOPTIC AND
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE ARE LIKELY A BIT OVERDONE AND THE INCOMING DRY
FRIGID AIR WILL LIKELY EAT AWAY AT THE WESTERN SNOW LINE. A TIGHT
SNOWFALL GRADIENT WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND... BUT THE
CHALLENGE WILL BE MAINTAINING THIS GRADIENT WITH REALITY. CHANGES
MAY NEED TO BE MADE WITH POPS. HOWEVER... CONFIDENCE STILL REMAINS
HIGH THAT THE BRUNT OF THE SNOW WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS OUR NW
COUNTIES OF WISCONSIN DUE TO THE BRUNT OF THE QPF EXPECTED IN
THOSE LOCATIONS... WITH 6-10 INCHES EXPECTED FOR BAYFIELD AND
WASHBURN CO EASTWARD... AND UP TO A FOOT IN THE SNOWBELT OF IRON
COUNTY. AN ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PINE COUNTY IN
MINNESOTA. FURTHER WESTWARD INTO MINNESOTA... EXPECT 2-4 INCHES FOR
DULUTH AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE... AND AS HIGH AS 1-2 INCHES
FURTHER WEST FROM BRAINERD TO HIBBING. THE BRUNT OF THIS SNOW WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON... EVENING... AND INTO THE NIGHT. REFER TO
WINTER WATCHES AND WARNINGS POSTED FOR THE NORTHLAND.

THE CENTER OF THE STORM SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO SE WISCONSIN BY 12Z
AND REACH UPPER MICHIGAN BY 18-21Z WEDNESDAY. SNOW WILL GRADUALLY
COME TO AN END FROM W TO E BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS... BUT LES WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE UNTIL 00Z THURS OR BEYOND
DUE TO NORTHERLY FLOW OFF OF THE OPEN WATERS OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 231 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...JUST AS THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ARE
WRAPPING UP FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN....A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES DOWN
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF OUR BIG
STORM SYSTEM. THIS SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH SOME LINGERING MOISTURE
SHOULD PRODUCE AT LEAST A SHORT PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WITH THE MAIN
QUESTION BEING TRACK AND TIMING.  HAVE INCREASED TO SOME CHANCE
POPS...WITH SOME SMALL QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WE REMAIN IN STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW...WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHIFTING OFF TO OUR EAST AND 500MB HEIGHTS
SLOWLY BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS ALSO ALLOWS TEMPERATURES
TO SLOWLY WARM FROM HIGHS ONLY IN THE TEENS TO MID 20S THURSDAY...TO
THE 20S TO AROUND 30 BY SATURDAY.  NOT MUCH CHANGE...BUT EXPECT THIS
MAY CHANGE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

MODELS ARE SHOWING A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE
ROCKIES SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING SOME CHANCES FOR SNOW.  MODELS ARE AT LEAST
AGREEING THAT THERE WILL BE A STORM...BUT THE GFS IS MUCH SLOWER AND
DEEPER THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS IN MORE COLD AIR BEHIND IT.  FOR
NOW HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS...THOUGH THINK THE EVENTUAL SYSTEM
WILL BE A BIT MORE LIKE THE ECMWF.  THIS SHOULD BRING SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES INTO THE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND EXPECT THE
HIGHS TO MAINLY BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST TUE FEB 2 2016

WIDESPREAD SNOW AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AT KINL WHICH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE DRY
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH MVFR CEILINGS. ELSEWHERE...THE MAIN
PERIOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THIS EVENING...DIMINISHING
FROM THE WEST THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY. LATEST NAM BUFR
SOUNDINGS AND RH PROFILES FROM THE DLHWRF SHOW GUSTY NW WINDS
ALLOWS FOR IMPROVING CEILINGS TO MVFR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH LINGERING CLOUDS OVER WISCONSIN AND IN THE KHYR
AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  12  17   3  22 /  70  60   0  30
INL   3  13   0  18 /   0   0  20  30
BRD  12  18   6  24 /  60  10  30  20
HYR  19  21   1  22 / 100  60   0  30
ASX  20  22   5  23 / 100  80  20  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ006.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ007>009.

     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ001.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR MNZ038.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCLOVIN
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING



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