Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 110535
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1235 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY ON THE HEELS OF LAST NIGHTS COLD FRONT
HAS KEPT THINGS DEEPLY MIXED AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  DRY CONDITIONS HAVE PRODUCED MINIMUM
RH VALUES IN THE LOW 20S.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS MOVING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MANITOBA...WITH ANOTHER ONE TO ITS SOUTHWEST.  THERE ARE SOME
SHOWERS AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

TONIGHT THE SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
SOME SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA.  WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS DO NOT EXPECT VERY MUCH.  HAVE KEPT
POPS AROUND SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW END CHANCE CATEGORY WITH RELATIVELY
LOW QPF.  MIN TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

FRIDAY ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...BRINGING A LITTLE
BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...WITH A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE AVAILABLE
TO THE SYSTEM...EVEN THOUGH DYNAMICS ARE RELATIVELY WEAK.  POPS ARE
BETTER IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE WAVE SHIFTS
OFF TO THE EAST.  HIGHS SHOULD BE WARMER THAN TODAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM CDT THU APR 10 2014

A RELATIVELY WET START TO THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS STATES FRIDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO
REACH SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL NEBRASKA BY 12Z
SATURDAY...WITH RAIN OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW OVERSPREADING THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE A WET DAY FOR
THE MOST PART ACROSS THE REGION. THERE SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT OF A
DECREASE IN PRECIPITATION BY SATURDAY MID AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY PULLS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
STATES SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...POST FRONTAL RAIN OR RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE ON THE DRY SIDE...WHILE SOME INSTABILITY SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE BY MONDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD AIR ALOFT. WE
ARE DEFINITELY LOOKING FOR COLDER TEMPS IN MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MAY BE OUR NEXT
MAJOR THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE STILL A
QUESTION AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI APR 11 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. HOWEVER...CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED LIGHT SHRA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY. ANY SHOWERS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  42  28  39 /  50  70  30  20
INL  30  44  25  37 /  60  70  40  20
BRD  39  57  31  42 /  60  50  30  10
HYR  36  53  31  43 /  60  80  30  20
ASX  34  45  29  40 /  40  70  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SYNOPSIS...LE
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP






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