Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 300543
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AT 310 PM...THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY NW WINDS DUE TO THE EARLIER
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. THE WINDS WERE GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH OVER MOST OF THE REGION...AND IN SOME AREAS NEARLY 40 MPH. THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS CLEARING
OVER THE WESTERN AREAS. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S
OVER THE FAR EAST TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S OVER THE WEST.

THE GUSTY WINDS AND CLEARING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST TONIGHT...LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN REGION MONDAY. WHILE THE MORNING WILL LIKELY
BEGIN RATHER SUNNY...THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
MODELS SUGGEST THIS BAND COULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A LOW/MID LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL BAND THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH THE
TROUGH BOUNDARY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER IN THE UPPER
30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER AND RAIN...BUT COULD REACH THE UPPER 50S IN THE SW WHERE
THERE WILL BE MORE SUN.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

AN ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MIXED
PRECIPITATION. SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE ARROWHEAD WHERE UP TO ONE
INCH IS POSSIBLE. ONE MORE PIECE OF VORTICITY CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD
TUESDAY MORNING...BUT A WARMING LOW LEVEL WILL LEAD TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX. BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THE VORT MAX MOVES OFF AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY...WAA IS UNDERWAY AHEAD OF A SFC LOW MOVING
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. TIMING DIFFERENCES EMERGE AMONGST
THE MODELS AS WELL AS QPF COVERAGE. INSTABILITY INCREASES THROUGH
THE DAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT NEAR THE MN/DAKOTAS BORDER BY LATE
MORNING. SOME SHOWERS MAY BREAK OUT ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ON THE TIP OF LLJ MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN. MODELS
HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. HAVE ADDED AN
ISOLD MENTION OF THUNDER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE INGREDIENTS FOR
STORMS ARE ORGANIZING. THE FRONT MOVES INTO NW WI WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND HAVE ADDED ISOLD THUNDER TO NW WI. THE INSTABILITY
MOVES E OF THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND HAVE NO MENTION OF
THUNDER AFTER 06Z...BUT STILL EXPECT SOME SHOWERS. ON
THURSDAY...THE SFC LOW MOVES INTO NW ONTARIO WITH A SURGE OF COLD
AIR BEHIND IT. LOWEST LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN.
THURSDAY NIGHT ANY LINGERING PCPN WILL BE SNOW AS DEEPER COLD AIR
ARRIVES WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING TO -11C OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.
MODEL DIFFERENCES BECOME PRONOUNCED AS A AN ANTICIPATED SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES ARE PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA. AIR WILL
BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY PCPN TO BE ALL SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  51  36  61 /  50  10   0  30
INL  28  49  33  63 /  50  10  10  20
BRD  35  58  42  68 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  29  54  33  65 /  30   0   0  40
ASX  28  47  33  61 /  40  10   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE/WL





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