Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 280530 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A SFC TROF WAS DROPPING THROUGH THE FA AT 19Z. SHOWERS CONTINUED TO
DOT THE LANDSCAPE AS VORT MAXES ROTATE THROUGH THE FA. LAST OF THE
VORT MAXES HAS REACHED THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND WILL PASS
THROUGH THE FA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER GENERATED
FROM THIS ENERGY AND CAA WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN
CLEARING IS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE AREA
FROM THE N AS DRIER AIR ARRIVES WILL ALSO AID IN THE CLEARING.

THE HIGH WILL DRIFT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT. THE SKY WILL
CONTINUE TO CLEAR AND WINDS WILL GO LIGHT AFTER SUNSET. KEPT OUT THE
MENTION OF FOG AS MODELS INSIST ON KEEPING A LAYER OF MOISTURE
AROUND 5K FT...ENOUGH TO NOT MENTION FOG...NOR GENERATE CLOUD COVER.

ON MONDAY...THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS LEAVES A
NLY FLOW OVER THE FA. A WEAK SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
MN ARROWHEAD IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME
SHOWERS. THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVE AND HAVE AN ISOLD THUNDER MENTION IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. REST
OF THE FA SHOULD BE DRY DUE TO A MID LEVEL INVERSION OVER THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

A STAGNANT SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH A
COOL UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA AND THE NE U.S. AND AN UPPER RIDGE
AXIS OVER THE ROCKIES AND WRN HIGH PLAINS. A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVES WILL TRACK N-S FROM MANITOBA/WRN ONTARIO INTO THE WRN
GREAT LAKES DURING THE WEEK AND PRODUCE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND WEAK
ISOLATED STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING RAINFALL APPEARS TO
BE ON TUE NIGHT...BUT THERE ARE LOW CHANCES OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY THIS WEEK. THE LATEST 12Z GFS IS THE LEAST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THE QPF...WHILE THE ECMWF AND GEM GENERATE LIGHT/MDT
RAINFALL ALMOST EVERY DAY AROUND 00Z. NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND
LOWER 80S THROUGH THE WEEK AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

A QUIET NIGHT IS IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND...AS DRY AIR CONTINUES
TO PUSH ACROSS THE REGION. SOME LOCALIZED FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME LOCAL IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS ON
MONDAY. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL DIMINISH DURING THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  77  55  77 /  10  30  10  20
INL  51  77  52  79 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  78  56  80 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  52  77  52  78 /  10  40  10  20
ASX  53  77  53  77 /  20  30  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI






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