Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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000
FXUS63 KDLH 242355
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
655 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY AND VERY WARM WEATHER
WITH SW TO WSW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 MPH. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO LOW 70S FOR ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH SHORE. THIS IS
ABOUT 20 TO 25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN. ITS COLD FRONT STRETCHED THROUGH
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND WAS BEGINNING TO MOVE EAST INTO NW
MINNESOTA. A PREFRONTAL TROUGH WAS MOVING THROUGH MINNESOTA AND
IOWA. THERE WAS POOLING OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WITH
OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS...AND THIS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS HAD MOVED INTO
THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL BRING CLEARING SKIES. WHILE THE CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE 5 TO 15 MPH
WESTERLY WINDS WHICH HELP MIX THE BOUNDARY A BIT.
THEREFORE...LEANED ON MIDDLE OF THE ROAD TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE AND
REFRAINED FROM THE COLDER GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY LOOKS SUNNY, WINDY, AND COOLER. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE GOOD MIXING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE, WIDESPREAD
WNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AREA
EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDIEST CONDITIONS SHOULD BE
IN THE DULUTH AREA AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD. THE
DRY CONDITIONS AND SUNNY SKIES WILL HELP TEMPERATURES CLIMB TO THE
MIDDLE 50S TO LOW 60S, ABOUT 1O TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 323 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

RIDGING ALOFT AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL PROVIDE DRY
CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER SUNDAY. WAA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE ALONG WITH INCREASING MOISTURE WITH PWAT VALUES RISING TO
NEAR 1 INCH WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND BRING A THREAT FOR
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS TO FAR WESTERN AREAS LATE IN THE DAY.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE
LOW MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO SOUTHWEST
MB/NORTHWEST MN BY 12Z MON. THERE MAY BE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AS
WELL OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND AS SOME CAPE
DEVELOPS. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS EAST MONDAY
NIGHT WITH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL USHER IN COLDER TEMPS THROUGH THE
DAY TUESDAY. WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS LOOK COLD ENOUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR SOME SNOW SHOWERS
TO DEVELOP AS WELL. THE PRECIP MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT DOES
NOT LOOK TO BE VERY WIDESPREAD/SIGNIFICANT AT THIS TIME.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE REGION THURSDAY. THERE
IS SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES LATE IN THE PERIOD AND RUN
TO RUN DIFFERENCES AS WELL. AT THIS TIME THOUGH...SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.

SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER FIFTIES TO AROUND 60. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE
FORTIES BY TUESDAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 655 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE TERMINALS THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT. SKIES TO REMAIN VFR...BUT WINDS TO SWITCH FROM SOUTHWEST
(240) TO WEST-NORTHWEST(290) AT 10-15KTS AND BEGIN GUSTING TO OVER
20KTS FOR AT LEAST A FEW HOURS. AS THIS IS HAPPENING IN THE LATE
EVENING GUSTING MAY NOT BE AS STRONG OR LAST AS LONG AS ARE CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...AND HAVE PUT IN AS TEMPO GROUPS FOR NOW. THESE GUSTS
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER A FEW HOURS. SOME STRATUS AFFECTING KHYR
EXPECTED TO BE SWEPT EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT...LEAVING VFR
CONDITIONS THERE AS WELL. SATURDAY MORNING AFTER 15Z MIXING SHOULD
ALLOW GUSTING TO OVER 20KTS TO BEGIN AGAIN...AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME CIRRUS AND AC MAY MOVE OVER THE
AREA...BUT OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  58  34  56 /   0   0   0  10
INL  41  56  30  55 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  43  58  34  61 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  43  60  29  59 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  45  59  35  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE







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