Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 131727
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SOME THIS AFTERNOON...AS KBRD WAS ALREADY AT
73 DEGREES. WE ALSO ADJUSTED POPS AS A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS WERE
STEADILY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND SHOULD BE CLOSE TO IMPACTING THE
TWIN PORTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. WE STILL EXPECT SHOWERS TO
INCREASE ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON. WE
ADDED AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...AS WE WERE SEEING SOME 50DBZ
ECHOES ALREADY AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS/SPC MESOANALYSIS SHOW A FEW
HUNDRED J/KG OF CAPE AVAILABLE.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LAST NIGHT WAS
NEARLY OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH THE FRONT
JUST ON THE VERGE OF EXITING PRICE COUNTY. MUCH COOLER TEMPS WERE
ALREADY BEING SEEN IN NRN MN WHERE TEMPS WERE IN THE MID 40S...IN
CONTRAST TO THE LOWER 60S IN NORTHERN WI.

ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF S/WV ROTATING AROUND UPPER LOW WILL AFFECT
THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OCCURRING
OVER SRN MANITOBA/NWRN ONTARIO WILL SPREAD SWRD TDY AND TONIGHT.
THE SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE AIDED BY STEEP LAPSE MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
CAUSED BY CAA ALOFT. SUNSHINE THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY BE
REPLACE BY THE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

ANOMALOUS MID LVL CLOSED LOW AND PARENT UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL SWING
ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT SHIFTS EAST
INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES MIDWEEK. THE MID LVL PATTERN WILL THEN
TRANSITION GRADUALLY TO A WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DURING THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INCREASE IN WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN LOW LVLS AND A CHANCE OF RAIN FAR NORTH FRIDAY.

PRECIP...CLOUDS...AND COLD ADVECTION WILL ENSURE A MUCH BELOW CLIMO
DAY MONDAY ACROSS THE CWA. BASED ON LATEST FCSTS OF SALIENT
FEATURES...MID LVL LOW AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE...IT APPEARS THE AREA
FROM THE ERN ARROWHEAD SOUTH TO TWIN PORTS AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
WILL HAVE THE LOWEST MAX TEMPS. SREF PLUMES SHOW A MEAN TEMP FOR DLH
OF APPROX 57F..3 DEGREES ABOVE THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR THE DATE.
EITHER WAY..TEMPS WILL AVERAGE ABOUT 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW CLIMO
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. A CHALLENGE EXISTS TUESDAY REGARDING THE
EXISTING LOWER CLOUD DECK LEFT BEHIND BY THE DEEP CIRCULATION. THERE
ARE SOME CONFLICTING SIGNALS REGARDING PLACEMENT OF CLOUDS TUESDAY
AS SOME NWP SHOWS HIGHER CHC OF INSTABILITY CU DEVELOPING OVER SRN
CWA LATE MORNING... AND ADVECTING SOUTH OF THE CWA BY AFTERNOON.
GENERAL SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WOULD FAVOR SOME AMOUNT OF CLOUD
COVER OVER THE ERN PART OF THE CWA WITH CLOSER PROXIMITY TO MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE GT LAKES CIRCULATION. FCST 925H TEMPS TUESDAY OF
14C TO 15C SHOULD ALLOW MAX TEMPS TO JUMP INTO UPPER 60S TO NEAR
70...AND 70S AREA WIDE WEDNESDAY.  WARM ADVECTION PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH TEMPS UPWARDS LATE WEEK WITH MID TO UPPER 70S AND A
FEW 80S BY FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT THE FCST STRENGTH OF THE SFC HIGH
OVER THE REGION AND THE LACK OF SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
SHOULD RESTRICT PRECIP CHCS TO FAR NORTH MN ZONES FRIDAY. EVEN THAT
POTENTIAL MAY BE OVERDONE AS GFS IS ONLY MODEL DRIVING A WARM
FRONTAL BDRY PRECIP PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTH. OF MORE CONFIDENCE IS
THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BDRY WITH MID LVL TROF DURING THE WEEKEND.
WHILE BOTH GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON THIS GENERAL PATTERN THERE ARE TIMING
DIFFERENCES.THE EC IS FASTER IN PROGRESSING THE FORCING/PRECIP
EASTWARD THAN THE SLOWER GFS/GEM. WILL HAVE TO USE GENERIC CHC
WORDING FOR NOW UNTIL LATER THIS WEEK WHEN MODEL DISCREPANCIES
LESSEN AND ACTUAL SYNOPTIC REGIME DEVELOPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT SUN JUL 13 2014

A LARGE LOW CIRCULATION OVER ONTARIO WILL ALLOW FOR A TRANSITION
TO GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND COOLER AIR TO SINK INTO THE REGION
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS. EXPECT LOWERING CEILINGS...AND SPOTTY
SHOWERS...THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. ANY SHOWERS TODAY
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS TO 35 KT AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN. HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF THUNDER ATTM...BUT A VERY
ISOLATED TSRA CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CEILINGS
WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD BY 06Z...PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  50  59  48 /  30  40  70  20
INL  67  47  63  47 /  50  50  60  10
BRD  75  51  62  50 /  20  30  50  10
HYR  71  51  59  48 /  10  30  70  30
ASX  70  49  58  48 /  20  40  70  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GRANING





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