Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 182018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
318 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WERE THINNING AND BREAKING UP AS OF 18Z. MOST TERMINALS
WILL START WITH MVFR BUT IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF LLWS BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A SW LLJ CLIPS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY 08Z MIXING OUT OF THE INVERSION ALLOWS THE
SFC WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. HAVE VCSH AT INL BY 04Z BEFORE
PREDOMINATE -RA EXPECTED. INTRODUCED VCSH AT HIB/DLH/BRD AT 15Z.
KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN AT HYR THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF





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