Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN

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FXUS63 KDLH 230546
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1246 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1127 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING. THESE WERE OCCURRING IN AN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE. THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING VERY SLOWLY WITH ONE OVER
EAST CENTRAL CASS COUNTY NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE PAST 1.5 HOURS
OR SO. RADAR ESTIMATES 1.5 TO 1.8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OUT OF
IT SO FAR.

WE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO HANG ONTO THE SHOWERS LONGER TONIGHT AS
THE WEAK FORCING WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND WEAK ISOLATED STORMS THIS EVENING MAINLY
OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...WITH PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND CONTINUED COOL/WET CONDITIONS
EXPECTED SATURDAY.

A LARGE UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES AS
A SFC FRONT DRAPED FROM ONTARIO INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS MOVES SLOWLY
EWD AND INTERACTS WITH AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE BL OVER N-CENTRAL
MN. ML CAPE VALUES FROM I-FALLS TO BRD HAVE RISEN TO AROUND
500-1000 J/KG AND COMBINED WITH WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AROUND 25
KT...AND ROBUST MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM LAKE OF THE WOODS TO PARK FALLS. THIS LINE WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE E/NE...AND FOLLOW THE LINE OF
HIGHEST INSTABILITY. MAIN THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING. A LARGE AREA OF STABLE AIR IS SITUATED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR AND ROUGHLY 100 MI INLAND. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
HAS DEVELOPED OVER LS AND ALLOWED A STRONG LAKE BREEZE TO MOVE
THIS AIR MASS OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND ADJACENT TO
THE LAKE. WAA ALOFT AND THE COOL MOIST AIR AT THE SFC WILL KEEP
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THE NEXT 24 HRS.
MAY NEED TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY TONIGHT...WITH FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY DZ
AS WELL TONIGHT. THIS PUSH OF AIR OFF THE LAKE WILL ALLOW MUCH OF
THE REGION TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW...WITH ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIP FROM DZ OR -SHRA. HAVE
PUSHED BACK POPS ACROSS THE WRN COUNTIES AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
DOMINATES DURING THE DAY SAT.

NOT MUCH CHANGE ON SATURDAY FROM TODAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AND PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE AND A MODEST E/NE WIND OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR. COOL TEMPS AROUND THE LAKE EXPECTED AGAIN...WITH
WARM TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

THE WET SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. ON SATURDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY REGION...BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WE
SHOULD SEE A BIT OF A REPRIEVE IN THE PRECIPITATION WITH ONLY SMALL
CHANCES OF SEEING RAINFALL. ANOTHER WAVE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD ON
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD BE WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEM. WE SHOULD THEN SEE AN AIRMASS CHANGE DURING LATTER PART OF
THE WORK WEEK...WITH DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT SAT AUG 23 2014

A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OVER
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH LATE. FOG/STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED TO EXPAND ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND LEADING TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS.

THE FOG WILL LIFT FOR MOST AREAS SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MAY LINGER
INTO THE AFTERNOON AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AS WELL...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE
LIMITED. WE DID NOT INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE TAFS FOR
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT YET...AS CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE IS LOWER
THAN AVERAGE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  78  61  73 /  50  50  60  10
INL  62  77  55  69 /  70  70  60  20
BRD  66  83  58  73 /  70  50  40  10
HYR  66  85  63  78 /  20  30  60  10
ASX  63  83  64  76 /  30  40  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE/LE







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