821
ACUS01 KWNS 281242
SWODY1
SPC AC 281240

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0740 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Valid 281300Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
TONIGHT FROM THE ARKLATEX SOUTHWARD INTO EAST TX...

...SUMMARY...
Clusters of severe storms are possible through early tonight, with
the most concentrated threat for wind damage, large hail and a few
tornadoes from the ArkLaTex southward into east Texas.

...MO to east TX/western LA through tonight...
Within a larger-scale trough, a primary shortwave trough will move
northeastward from the central Plains to the upper MS Valley by
tonight. A weak surface cyclone will likewise move northeastward
from KS to IA, and an associated/weak cold front will drift
southeastward across KS/OK/northwest TX.

The warm sector has been altered substantially by an extensive
overnight QLCS that is weakening but continues to move eastward
across southern MO, western AR and northeast into south central TX.
Widespread convective overturning has occurred across areas west of
the line, and many of the overnight forecast models appear too
aggressive with thermodynamic recovery today in its wake.  There may
be some recovery later today from eastern OK into MO in advance of
an embedded speed max rotating northeastward from west TX over
OK/MO.  However, destabilization is unlikely to be sufficient to
support more than SLGT-risk caliber severe probabilities.

Farther south, the remnant QLCS will encounter the richer
moisture/larger buoyancy in the undisturbed warm sector from the
ArkLaTex southward.  Vertical shear will be sufficient for
supercells, but the stronger shear and larger, curved hodographs
appear to be in response to warm advection within the modifying cold
pool that the models appear to remove a little too quickly today
from southeast OK/western AR northward.  Thus, the main threat for
any embedded supercells/tornadoes will be along the remnant outflow
from the ArkLaTex southward.  It appears possible that additional
storm development by this afternoon could evolve into another linear
cluster that will spread southeastward into southeast TX and western
LA by this evening/overnight with a continued threat for wind damage
and occasional large hail.

..Thompson/Leitman.. 04/28/2024

$$