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000
FNUS22 KWNS 121935
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024

Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

No changes to the ongoing forecast. Critical meteorological
conditions appear most likely to occur in parts of the Texas
Panhandle/South Plains. Given recent rainfall and reports of some
greening grasses, a categorical upgrade to Critical does not seem
warranted at this time. Critical conditions also appear possible
near the KS/CO border. Deterministic and ensemble guidance generally
depict these conditions occurring only briefly, however.

..Wendt.. 04/12/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2024/

...Synopsis...
Across the western US, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to
intensify Saturday as a broad upper low moves onshore over the West
Coast and begins to phase with the sub tropical jet. The strong flow
aloft from the intensifying upper low will deepen a lee trough into
a surface low over the northern Plains. The low will bolster surface
winds across the Great Basin and Southwest, while gusty surface
winds will extend eastward to the lee of the Rockies and over much
of the Great Plains. With gusty winds overlapping areas of dry fuels
and warm temperatures, elevated fire-weather conditions are likely.

...High Plains...
To the west of the deepening lee trough, gusty west/southwest winds
are expected to increase through the afternoon over parts of eastern
CO, eastern NM, western KS, and the far western TX Panhandle.
Widespread gusts of 20-25 mph are likely, overlapping with minimum
humidity values of 10-20%. Elevated to locally critical fire-weather
concerns are likely, especially over parts of southeastern CO,
western KS and eastern NM, where fuels are driest. Less confidence
exists over part of the TX panhandle and northwest OK. Here, recent
rainfall has likely tempered fuels somewhat. Still, several days of
drying may result in some potential for elevated and critical
fire-weather conditions Saturday afternoon.

...Central Plains...
As the lee trough continues to deepen into a broad lee low over the
northern Plains, strong southerly winds are expected across much of
the southern and central Plains. Ahead of the returning moisture,
sustained winds of 20-25 mph are expected Saturday. While RH values
may not reach nominal diurnal minimums, widespread RH below 30% is
still likely. In combination with increasingly warm temperatures and
very dry fuels, the gusty winds and marginally dry surface
conditions should support at least a few hours of elevated
fire-weather potential across parts of central/eastern KS into
southern NE. Localized fire-weather concerns are also possible
farther east into portions of MO, though lesser confidence in
sustained winds and fuels exists here.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$