Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO

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000
FXUS63 KEAX 230814
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
314 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sub freezing temperatures this morning across the regions.

- Sinusoidal temperature pattern expected over the next several
  days with highs bouncing between the 40s and 60s and lows
  between the 20s and 50s.

- Windy conditions are expected Sunday and Monday with gusts
  around 40-45 MPH possible. Showers and thunderstorms area also
  anticipated.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 310 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

A cold front slowly worked its way through the area Friday which put
this dichotomy on display across northern and central MO with
Kirksville topping out at 43F and Sedalia reaching 67F. This front
continues to make its way out of the region and gust north winds are
quickly advecting much colder temperatures into the area. While
cloud cover has insulated us ever so slightly, low temperatures
tonight are expected to dip below freezing across the region leading
to a chilly start to Saturday. Upper level troughing and swift
northwesterly flow atop lower level ridging keeps the cooler
conditions around through Saturday. High across the area remain
in the 40s and 50s.

Meanwhile, a deep upper level trough enters the west coast digging
across the desert southwest. Shortwave troughs ejection from the
larger cyclone entices the development of a large lee trough across
the intermountain west which turns flow across the western Plains
advecting warmer air northward. This slowly shifts winds from NE to
SE Saturday. While this does not help increase our highs, it does
mitigate overnight cooling as lows settle in the 40s. During this
shift in the winds subtle surface convergence and agitation from a
traversing upper level short wave may spawn a few showers across far
northern MO Saturday afternoon/evening.

This shortwave looks to kick start expansive cyclogenesis across the
Plains. The leeward low is expected to form and deepens
substantially thanks to cyclonic vorticity advection from the
broader upper level trough as well as a tightening pressure
gradient across the central CONUS. Sustained winds Sunday and
Monday could be around 25-30 MPH with gusts approaching 40-45
MPH outside of potential showers and thunderstorms. Speaking of
which, the strong flow of warm moist air along with surface
convergence does bring chances for widespread showers and
thunderstorms Sunday and Monday. Precipitation is expected to
start Sunday morning primarily north of I-70 as a strong LLJ
blasts warm air and moisture northward. Strong low level
convergence eventually fills in areas southward through the
afternoon and evening. For being as strong of a system as this
is, deep convective instability remains low leading to
relatively marginal chances for severe storms. Shear and
helicity values remain elevated so a thunderstorms with some
hail is possible. Ambient winds are expected to be gusty to
begin with that in-storm winds, while slightly increased, won`t
be much more than non-storm winds. CAMs show increased
instability moving into the area early Monday morning which does
elevate the potential for some isolated strong to severe storms
early Monday morning with the most likely hazards being high
winds and hail; however, much uncertainty remains.

This system lifts out of the area late Monday into Tuesday. Earlier
model solutions did propose a chance for some overnight wintry
precipitation across northern MO. While chances remain possible,
the probabilities are decreasing and there is little confidence of
any accumulations should wintry precipitation occur. Temperatures
slowly warm through the remainder of the week as longwave ridging
builds across the central CONUS late week turning low level flow
back southerly allowing for broad scale warm air advection looking
to push temperatures back above seasonal normals next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat Mar 23 2024

MVFR conditions are expected to continue through the overnight
hours. MVFR CIGs hover around 2000ft through the mid-morning
hours before lifting to VFR which lasts the remainder of the
period. Winds start NE before becoming more easterly through
midday then southeast by the evening.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel


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