189
FXUS63 KEAX 110746
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
246 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet weather is expected Saturday with partly cloudy skies and
 highs in the 70.

-Showers and thunderstorms become possible Sunday and Monday.
 Additional minor flooding possible.

-Additional showers and thunderstorms expected for the second
 half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

Similar to last night, very light showers have skirted our
northwestern corner thanks to as shortwave trough and trailing front
sliding across the Great Lakes region. Most, if not all, of our are
should remain dry. Heading into the daylight hour, quiet weather
persists with light northwest to westerly winds today and mostly
sunny skies. Highs this afternoon will reach near 80 degrees for
western parts of the forecast area including the Kansas City Metro.
Elsewhere can expect mid to upper 70s.

As we head into Saturday night into Sunday morning another system
churning off the Rockies pushes east toward our forecast area. Ahead
of its arrival warm air advection will allow for continued warmer
temperatures and increasing rain chances starting Sunday morning. As
far as temperatures go, despite the cloudy and rainy conditions,
most should still see highs reach near 80 in the afternoon. The
system develops a closed low as it very sluggishly slides east.
Continued shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected
continuing into the overnight. The good news is that CAPE and
shear profiles look less than enthusiastic, so severe weather is
not expected at this time.

Shower and thunderstorm activity continues during the day Monday
with the system nearly centered over the area around this time. The
wave gradually makes its way east by Monday night with rainfall
chances finally coming to an end. When its all said an done,
rainfall amounts as high as 1.00-2.00 inches can be expected
across the forecast area. This may lead to some additional minor
river flooding.

Dry weather is expected to return for the middle part of next week
with very short lived ridging setting in. Temperatures remain mild
with highs in the mid 70s through this time. The second half of the
week looks to become more active again as another wave slides into
the forecast area Thursday and Friday bringing additional chances for
showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1210 AM CDT Sat May 11 2024

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with winds out
of the northwest.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HB
AVIATION...HB