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000
FXUS66 KEKA 242153
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
253 PM PDT Wed Apr 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Mainly dry weather is expected today with a few
showers possible over the interior. A cold front will bring below
normal temperatures, widespread rain, and high mountain snow to the
area Thursday and into Friday. Additional showers and below normal
temperatures are expected through the weekend and into early next
week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...An upper level trough and associated cold front is
dropping down from the north towards the area, nudging the
instability from yesterday further east this afternoon. There may
still be a few showers over the interior this afternoon, but
instability is weaker and lapse rates aloft are not as steep. This
should limit the threat for thunderstorms. Widespread stratus across
the coastal areas and near coastal areas is beginning to lift, with
Del Norte seeing some sunshine already this afternoon.

Tonight widespread clouds are expected to spread across the area as
a cold front approaches the area. Rain is expected to start in Del
Norte county Thursday morning and spread south later in the morning
and afternoon. The front is expected to rapidly weaken as it moves
south. Del Norte county is expected to see amounts ranging from 0.5
to 0.75 on Thursday, while Humboldt is expected to see around a half
inch near Orick, with only a tenth of inch reaching Garberville.
Precip is expected to come mainly in a few hours of steady rain in
the morning and early afternoon as it moves south. Farther south and
east in Mendocino, Lake, and Trinity counties, less than a tenth of
an inch of rain is expected. Thursday is expected to see cool
temperatures with highs in the 50s in most valleys, although
southern Mendocino and Lake counties may see mid 60s.

Showers are expected to continue to move onshore behind the main
front Thursday afternoon through Friday. Rainfall amounts are
expected to be light, with amounts ranging from a half inch in Del
Norte county to less than a tenth of an inch in southern Mendocino
and Lake counties. Thursday night widespread cloud cover should keep
low temperatures mainly in the 40s, although the mountains could see
temperatures drop into the 30s. Friday high temperatures are
expected to be in the 50s to low 60s again.

For the weekend and into early next week, nearly zonal flow will
keep temperatures below normal with a mix of sun and clouds. The
models are showing some shortwaves moving through the flow and this
may bring occasional light rain. At this point it looks like any
rain will be light, but it is possible there could be a stronger
shortwave that brings some moderate rain. Temperatures will be
rebound slightly, but will generally remain in the 60s. Any nights
that do manage to clear out will likely see near freezing or
freezing temperatures. At this point Tuesday morning looks like the
coldest morning, but this will depend a lot on how much cloud cover
there is. MKK



&&

.AVIATION...Wide-ranging stratus clouds, associated with a deep marine layer,
affected nearly all of the coastal airports today, and had spread
well inland. Tops were in excess of 3000 feet north of Ft Bragg, and
nearly 5000 feet south (i.e. UKI). However, impacts were minimal as
conditions stayed mainly in MVFR/VFR; CEC Cigs briefly dropped into
IFR. Advection of cooler air aloft caused clouds to start mixing out
after noonday along portions of the North Coast. A weak-like cold
front will approach the region on Thursday and result in pre-frontal
"lowering" clouds; rain will start at the coast in the morning. Also
ahead of the front, increased winds aloft will produced possible low
level windshear (LLWS) along the Del Norte Coast by late morning.
Surface winds will become breezy to gusty at the coast. /TA


&&

.MARINE...Wave energy is a bit disorganized, but the sea state will
remain relatively calm through Thursday with slight wind wave
enhancement downwind of Cape Mendocino. Otherwise, one small SW
swell interacting with a mid period NW swell will contribute to the
significant wave period under these light winds. Resurgence of
southerlies are expected in the northern waters late Thursday into
Friday ahead of a frontal passage. Breezy NW winds will resume
Friday and persist through the weekend, once again producing an area
of elevated gusts around the Cape but not exceeding 20-25 knots.
Despite prominent high pressure over the eastern Pacific, additional
weak fronts are expected swing through far northern CA late this
weekend alongside another long period swell. Increasing wave heights
are possible early next week as this swell fills in and pressure
gradients tighten along the coast.


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...
None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
None.
&&

$$

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https://www.weather.gov/images/eka/zonemap.png