749
FXUS64 KEPZ 051730
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
1130 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

Warm and breezy to windy conditions are expected through the
upcoming week, resulting in higher fire danger.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

A shallow surge of moisture has made it to El Paso early this
morning from the east associated with a backdoor cold front. Dew
points have spiked into the low 50s east of the mountain chain
from the metro area up to White Sands with the moisture slowed
down by the natural barriers. This moisture surge will be short-
lived, getting flushed out of the CWA during the day by deep SW
flow ahead of a deep upper low over the Great Basin. Very dry
conditions and breezy winds are expected this afternoon,
especially further west closer to the base of the trough. Dust
models are not excited about blowing dust potential later today
since the main dust sources in northern Chihuahua are underneath
relatively light winds compared to areas out west. The Lordsburg
Playa is most likely to see visibility reductions. More modest
breezes are forecast for far west TX today.

The Pacific front rolls through tonight, cooling temperatures
slightly for Monday. Winds will be breezy to windy across the
region under the base of a longwave trough and with a moderate
surface pressure gradient. Generally 20-30 mph winds with gusts to
40 mph are expected on Monday, shifting westerly behind the
Pacific front. Tuesday looks quite similar with strong zonal flow
overhead and temps a touch warmer. Another breezy day is expected
for Wednesday as the upper low meanders into the Northern Plains
from the Rockies.

A chunk of the main low then retrogrades into the Great Basin
based on the GEFS mean courtesy of a Rex block over SW Canada. As
it does so, a backdoor front rides down the high plains and
provides our area with an uptick in moisture for Friday. We`ll see
if anything comes of this next potential moisture surge in terms
of convection, or if it will be similar to what we see today.
Model guidance is uncertain regarding how the disturbance to our
north acts into next weekend. Winds subside somewhat later in the
week as temperatures remain above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

VFR conditions expected though there is a slight risk for BLDU at
TAF sites, with an attendant risk for category reductions.
Otherwise, skies are expected to be SKC-FEW250. Winds will become
breezy this afternoon, topping out 15-25 kts with some gusts to 25
knots. Direction starts more SW`LY (200-230) but will become more
westerly this afternoon and into the evening hours. Breezy
conditions will continue into the overnight hours as well. LLWS
may be a factor at all sites, especially LRU and ELP.

Overnight winds are a bit uncertain for ELP. Speeds will be close
to AWW criteria.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun May 5 2024

RED FLAG WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

Fire weather concerns will be moderate to high for the first half
of the week. For today, winds will be breezy from the southwest,
especially in northwestern areas, ahead of an upper low along
with very dry conditions. Combined, these factors result in RFTIs
of 4-7 (near critical to extreme) for FWZs 110, 111, and 112. FWZ
113 will have somewhat lighter winds today, so more of a
borderline Red Flag day there. Far west TX will see comparatively
lighter winds this afternoon.

More widespread breezy to windy conditions are expected for
Monday as winds shift westerly behind the Pacific front and
humidities rise slightly. RFTIs are forecast to be 3-6 on Monday
(near critical to critical). The fire weather watches have been
upgraded to RFWs for Monday across the area. Tuesday is looking
like the highest fire danger day of this stretch (RFTI 5-8) with
lower RHs than Monday and low-end windy conditions again. Watches
will be posted within the next 24 hours for Tuesday as confidence
is high in a red flag day. RFTIs fall to mostly 3 on Wednesday,
so more of an SPS day it seems. For the rest of the week, winds
stay on the breezy side as moisture levels creep up, lowering the
threat of fire weather. ERCs will continue to rise as temperatures
remain above normal and dry westerly winds persist.

Min RHs range from 5-12%. Vent rates will be excellent through
Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  90  61  87  60 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            85  55  82  54 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces               90  54  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               85  54  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               63  42  59  39 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences    85  53  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              77  45  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   88  51  83  47 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                86  49  80  45 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       87  57  84  57 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                89  52  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock             92  54  89  54 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               81  54  78  54 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                   90  56  88  55 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             86  52  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           87  60  82  57 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            86  52  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    88  54  84  47 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 87  54  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                85  54  81  51 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  76  49  71  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero                74  47  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                 72  43  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                  78  44  76  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                83  49  80  44 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                85  50  83  44 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             78  42  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   82  44  75  41 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    84  47  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               79  44  73  43 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  81  47  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   85  49  82  46 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  86  50  82  47 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           85  49  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               79  46  78  47 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for TXZ055-056.

NM...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening for NMZ110>113.

     Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM MDT Monday for NMZ110>113.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown