Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
312
FNUS74 KEPZ 141347
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Slaughter Mesa RX, Chiminea Unit...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
747 AM MDT Tue May 14 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1400 MDT on May 14.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Ventilation becoming Good after 10AM today, with transport winds
from the WSW at 10-15 mph. Light and spotty rain showers again
this afternoon across Catron County. Light and variable winds
overnight. Very similar weather conditions on Wednesday with a
slight uptick in west flow mid-afternoon. Lightning risk is
minimal. Winds shifting to the northwest Thursday/Friday.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent) then becoming
mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 9 mph in the evening and
overnight becoming light.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 14 mph shifting to the north around 7
mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (98200 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (4000 knot-ft) late in the
night.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........53 53 53 19 19 19 9 9 9 42 42 42
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).10 10 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............65 61 56 54 52 50 48 47 46 45 44 43
RH..............24 28 35 38 39 42 46 47 49 53 53 55
20 FT wind dir..NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW NW
20 FT wind spd..9 9 9 7 7 7 5 5 5 4 4 4
20 FT wind gust.17 17 17 14 14 14 10 10 10 8 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...7.0 7.0 7.0 7.0 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W W W W NW NW NW NW N N N N
Transp wind spd.14 14 14 14 9 9 9 9 7 7 7 7
Haines index....3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3
Vrate kt-ft/1K..98 98 98 98 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4
Ventrate Cat....GD GD GD GD PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 68.
Min humidity........19 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north around 5 mph late in
the morning, then shifting to the west in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......10800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North around 5 mph shifting to the southwest 9
to 13 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (15400 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to very good (108100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 or moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........62 62 62 58 58 58 65 65 65 69 69 69
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONESCH SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Weather type.... RW RW RW RW RW RW
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 20 20 20 20 20 20
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............43 46 50 54 58 61 63 65 67 68 68 67
RH..............57 49 44 36 32 27 23 21 19 20 20 23
20 FT wind dir..N N N N N N W W W W W W
20 FT wind spd..3 3 3 5 5 5 8 8 8 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.6 6 6 12 12 12 16 16 16 18 18 18
Mix hgt (kft)...3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9 9.4 9.4 9.4 9.4 11 11 11 11
Transp wind dir.N N N N SW SW SW SW W W W W
Transp wind spd.5 5 5 5 9 9 9 9 13 13 13 13
Haines index....3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..15 15 15 15 85 85 85 85 108 108 108 108
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR GD GD GD GD VGD VGD VGD VGD
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Partly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. Northwest winds around 9 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs around 70. West winds
around 9 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West
winds around 9 mph.
$$
Forecaster...DENNHARDT
Requested by...Francesca Chavez
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414008.1/EPZ
.DELDT 05/14/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL francesca.chavez@usda.gov