420
FXUS62 KFFC 090743
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
343 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024


...Morning Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Active weather anticipated again today as a second MCS moves through
the CWA.

Early morning convection (MCS #1) is moving off to the east.

MCS #2 is currently winding up across western TN. This system will
advance eastward through the overnight hours and move through the
CWA today. Models have been fairly consistent on the timing of this
system over the last couple of days. The MCS should approach the far
NW corner of the CWA around 10-12Z and then continue southward. The
far northern portion of the outlook area should be well worked over
as the MCS approaches, but a few strong storms with isolated severe
storms will continue to be possible.

As the MCS moves south of the north GA mtns, the potential for
severe weather will increase fairly rapidly as this area is not
worked over and there will be plenty of moisture and instability to
work with. In addition, plenty of deep layer shear will be present
and lapse rates remain impressively steep. Damaging wind gusts,
large hail and a few tornadoes will all be possible. The MCS should
travel southward across the entire CWA through the early afternoon
hours.

The models are progging a late period MCS (MCS #3) approaching from
the west late tonight/every early Friday. The HRRR seems to be the
most reasonable hi-res model regarding this convective complex.
There will likely be some timing changes and some slight track
adjustments, but do think the bulk of strong/severe storms with this
system could remain south of the CWA. The entire CWA should be well
worked over from the MCS (#2) from earlier in the day. Not sure if
the atmos across the southern quarter of the CWA will have enough
time to recover for strong/severe thunderstorms. However, due to the
uncertainty regarding these types of systems, will leave in some
higher pops in that area. Can`t rule out the potential for strong
and/or isolated storms in that area, but the potential should be low
during the early morning hours.

The early morning MCS (#1) has produced some locally heavy rainfall
across northern portions of the CWA. Radar estimates/observations
show some 3"-4" amounts across far NW GA...with a axis of 1"-2"
extending further eastward. The second MCS is expected to be a fast
mover, but will be capable of producing additional locally heavy
rainfall. Will hold off issuing a FFA at this time, but do expect
locally higher amounts of rainfall.

NListemaa

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Previous Discussion Below

A brief period of dry and slightly cooler weather is expected
this weekend as we return to northwest flow aloft. Rain chances
look to return to the region next week as another low pressure
system developing in the Southern Plains moves eastward.




07

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 116 AM EDT Thu May 9 2024

Thunderstorms currently to the north will continue to sag
southward tonight. Progress has slowed a little, so have adjusted
the timing back one hour for the tempo group. Line that moves
through close to 11-12Z will have the potential for severe
storms. Upped the gusts to 45kt. A brief period of shra possible
on the back side of the line, but quick clearing of precip
thereafter. SCT cu for the remainder of the afternoon. Winds will
remain on the west side.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Med-high confidence all elements.

NListemaa

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          80  65  82  52 /  80  20  20   0
Atlanta         81  66  80  54 /  80  20  20   0
Blairsville     76  58  72  45 /  70  10  10   0
Cartersville    83  62  79  49 /  70  10  10   0
Columbus        84  69  84  57 /  80  60  50   0
Gainesville     80  64  79  53 /  80  10  10   0
Macon           81  69  84  56 /  80  30  30   0
Rome            84  63  79  51 /  70  10  10   0
Peachtree City  82  65  83  52 /  80  20  20   0
Vidalia         86  71  82  60 /  80  30  60  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...NListemaa